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Pelfrey Out, Who In?

New York Met’s Mike Pelfrey season is over – he needs Tommy John surgery. Who will fill his spot?

There are 4 candidates:

1) Chris Schwinden.  Schwinden will get the first fill in start for Pelfrey.  However, his numbers in the minors are average and he doesn’t have a high ceiling.  Still, his ERA so far this year is 2.05 after 4 starts, but his 9 walks to 13 Ks is not so nice.  If he stays up, he will be on a short leash.

2) Matt Harvey.  Harvey was projected to be in the rotation this year at some point anyway.  He has good upside, but is struggling in the minors this year.  He strikes out  more then a batter an inning and keeps his walks down.  But a 4.84 ERA is not a good sign.  There is some talk of the Mets bringing him up long term and just letting him ‘get his lumps’ at the major league level.

3) Jeurys Familia.  Familia, like Harvey has more then a K an inning, but is struggling this year.  Last year in the minors he has a 2.90 ERA with 132 Ks in 124 innings – pretty nice.  But so far this year he has a 5.30 ERA (23 Ks in 18 innings)

4) Zack Wheeler.  Wheeler is the Mets best pitching prospect.  He strikes out  more then a batter an inning and last year (115 innings) had an ERA of 3.52.  This year, he has an ERA of  1.80 and 24 Ks in 20 innings.  He is doing the best of the 4 mentioned.

Outside of Schwinden getting first crack, nothing has been decided.  Based on the numbers and upside, Wheeler should be the guy.  Harvey was the preseason favorite to be the first to get the call, so he still has a chance.  Familia is not ruled out, but it looks like Harvey and Wheeler have the inside track.

For fantasy purposes, Schwinden should  not be considered except for the deepest of leagues.  However, if the Mets bring up Harvey, then deep leagues should probably grab him – same with Familia.  Wheeler, with his upside, should also be grabbed in deep leagues and considered in medium leagues – it’s unlikely he will have enough impact for shallow leagues this year.

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