Halftime Adjustments

Hey, it's everyone's favorite Annapolis, Md.-based, sporadic internet fantasy baseball writer, Rob! Hi there! Since we've hit the halfway point of the season, it's time to take a good, long look at a phenomenon of the fantasy world: first-half players and second-half players. Turning fast starters into fast finishers could be the key to winning your league. But who are these Popeye-esque men that spend April through July wearing blindfolds and swinging those pool toy noodles fruitlessly as 95 mph fastballs blast by them, only to grow muscular and green after the All-Star game, ripping their shirts off and hammering pitches into the stratosphere? And who are their counters, the Zeusii and Herculii who revert into mere mortals when the weather gets hot? Fear not, internet friends. Because that's where I come in with two hip-ly named lists: 3 Guys that start well and fall off after the All-Star Break (Sell) 1. Mark Reynolds, 3B, Arizona. Even though we somehow assume he's come out of nowhere pre-ASB this year, he was having a fine season during the same time period last year, going .249-19-58 before the break. Post-ASB, he managed just nine home runs and OPS'd .711. Especially for a guy currently hitting .269-24-61, it might be time to sell high--even though his numbers from 2007 contradict this, since he actually turned on the power stroke then. I feel like his sophomore season is going to be much more telling for this year, however, and I would expect above-average-not-good-not great numbers from him the rest of the way. 2. Nate McLouth, OF, Atlanta. A year ago in Pittsburgh, McLouth hit .281 before the All-Star Break and .270 afterwards. He went from homering every 19 at-bats to homering every 33 at-bats. He ran a lot more, all things considered, but the power decline was sharp. Like Reynolds, however, he did pretty much the opposite in '07, but that was because he went from being a situational guy to an everyday guy. He's one you'll want to watch if you're relying on him for power in the second half. 3. Felix Hernandez, SP, Seattle. A guy that is seemingly always on the verge of breaking through, Felix looked like he really had something pre-ASB last year (101 Ks in 113 innings, 2.95 ERA). Afterwards, he was pedestrian (4.11 ERA, or basically a half-season worth of Tim Wakefield with a couple more strikeouts). It happens to him every year. In 2007, he was at 3.72 pre-ASB and 4.09 afterwards. And that includes an 8 2/3 inning, 1-run gem in his last start against Texas that was worthless because he already screwed you out of the playoffs. Others: Dan Haren, Alex Rios, Ian Kinsler (can't stay healthy), anybody that's old, anyone with an unreasonably high BABIP that isn't a world-class sprinter, any pitcher with an unreasonably low K/9. 3 Guys that historically turn it on post-ASB (Buy) 1. CC Sabathia, SP, New York (American). Yeah, he's fat. And yeah, he's thrown 1,000 innings. But he's been an absolute horse in the latter stages of the past few seasons. In 2007, he had a 2.76 ERA in 15 post-ASB starts (compared to 3.58 before), striking out 90 in 107 innings. In late June of 2006, he had a 4.18 ERA. For the rest of the season, he had a 2.71 ERA in 17 games with 108 strikeouts in 126 innings. And you all know what happened last year: Before the break, he punched old ladies in the face and ran an organized crime syndicate outside of suburban Chicago. Afterwards, he pitched roughly 4,289 innings for the Brewers, singlehandedly putting the team on his back to bring them to the playoffs, while spending his off-days providing free boat rides to terminally ill children. Don't let the workload scare you: Sabathia is the quintessential second-half ace. Expect complete games and shutouts left and right. 2. Kevin Youkilis, 1B, Boston. He hit 15 homers pre-ASB and 14 homers post-ASB. This is a handy reminder to those of you out there who are under the assumption that the ASB is roughly in the middle of the season, because what Youkilis did can be easily glazed over. He homered roughly every 22 at-bats before the break. Afterwards? Once every 15 at-bats. He also OPS'd .933 before the break--not bad--but not the Pujolsian .998 afterwards. Youk is having a fine season so far, but if you can pry him away from his current owner, he's going to start paying dividends. 3. Aubrey Huff, 3B, Baltimore. His remarkable season a year ago was even more impressive because he kept getting better as the season went along. I'm cheating here because I'm looking a bit before the All-Star game, but he was hitting .239 on June 8 last year. From then on out (93 games), he hit .346 with 23 home runs and an OPS of 1.022. Holy cheese and crackers, 1.022!!! He's been struggling so far this season, but it's definitely worth a look, with numbers like that. Others: Mark Teixeira (obviously), Albert Pujols (super-obviously), anyone with an obscenely low BABIP, any and all rookies (see my post earlier this season about this year's Cliff Lee-or don't, the point is, pick up anyone and everyone who might have a shot because in the end all this advice is worthless and it's just a crapshoot). Don't be afraid to go searching for these stats, either. They're widely available. Some players start hot and fade, others take a while to get going. If you know which ones to target and which ones to get rid of, you can put yourself in a much better position to win.