The Next Cliff Lee, or Why You Should Never Listen to Us.

I've been playing fantasy baseball since I was 10 years old, and my best friend has been playing since the year after I started. During baseball season, 90 percent of our conversations revolve around fantasy. We've become pretty well-versed. But last year, something took us by surprise. Cliff Lee. That jerk, Cliff Lee. See, here's the thing. The peripherals and the track record and the career arc and all that other mumbo jumbo that fantasy sports web sites throw at you all amounted to diddly-poo last year in the case of Cliff Lee. There was no rhyme or reason to his success. Even his "good" seasons weren't particularly fantasy-relevant--a 1.50 WHIP in 2004, a 1.40 WHIP in 2006--leaving his one "semi-great" season of 2005 as the only possibly link between him and what he did last year, at age 29 no less. The point is, sometimes things just happen. Sometimes, Cliff Lee wins a Cy Young. And it's why you should take all of these early-season fantasy columns and throw them out the window. Because sometimes, stuff happens that no "expert" is ever going to predict, and if they did they'd be crazy. This has been a big topic of discussion between my friend and I this season, and we both independently came to the same conclusion: Anyone could be the next Cliff Lee. The best advice I can give you is that if you have space on your roster for a fast starter--no matter who he is--pick him up and see if you can ride the wave. Don't listen to the columns telling you that Kevin Millwood won't keep up the pace in Texas, just roster him and see what happens. And yes, I know Jarrod Washburn is about as exciting as my Educational Statistics class, but what's the worst that could happen? Especially in head-to-head leagues, most of the people who are reading this are competent enough to get into the playoffs. So use the first few weeks to tinker. Make guesses, not educated guesses. Cast a wide net. Don't be afraid to pick up and drop people on a whim. Go out there and get Kyle Davies. Because the worst thing that could happen is that you drop him for some other flavor of the week. Eventually, at least one of these guys is going to stick. He might not win 22 games and the Cy Young, but he'll stick. So just remember to forget everything you've ever heard, and don't pay attention to those pesky fantasy "experts." Er. Except for me.

Spring fortunes rise and fall

As the last week of spring training comes to an end rosters are now sorting themselves out. There has been plenty to talk about with big time prospects Wieters and Price being sent down at least for April. we all know about those two so lets look at some new winners and losers from spring training.

Winners:

Brett Gardner: Giradi has named Gardner the starting CF for the yanks this year. Now if you came out of your draft light on speed don't panic YET! Gardner should definitely provide 30-40 steals and in that lineup he should chip in with some runs and a decent avg and obp.

Recommendation: Quickly get him if you need speed!

Dwayne Wise: Guillen has name Wise the starting CF and lead off hitter for the south siders. I don't think that he will last to long for the sox as a lead off hitter or center fielder. I think that ken Williams knows he needs to make a move and I could see Juan Pierre starting in Chacago by Mid Season. If no deal is made then Brian Anderson should end up being the starter in chicago.

Recommendation: Avoid

Jordan Schafer: With the trade of Josh Anderson to the Tigers center field in Atlanta is now down to Gregor Blanco and Jordan Schafer. Blanco stinks, my money is on Schafer he is having a great spring. This kid was a big time prospect until he was suspended for PEDs last year. well he is back and I say he starts and could provide some pop and some speed.

Recommendation: Pick him up in deep leagues and Keeper leagues could go 20\20.

Trevor Cahill\Brett Anderson: They made it thanks to Duchsherers injuries both will start in the rotation. Cahill has way more upside thanks to his Strong K rate but I am hearing that Anderson is the more polished of the two. My personal feeling is you can't go wrong with either, lets call them 1A and 1B. Just remember they are both only 21 and this is their first go in the Bigs expect growing pains.

Recommendation: Keeper\Dynasty Special and deep single season pickup. let someone else have them in those 8-10 team leagues.

Nick Adenhart: The Angels have all kinds of issues in their rotation with Lackey, Escobar, Santana and Weaver are banged up. Saunders who over achieved last yr has now become the De facto ACE for the Angels. Well now POST HYPE prospect Adenhart has a rotation spot and has had a solid spring lets see if he can live up to his potential this time.

Recommendation: Get him on your bench especially in keeper leagues, he has talent and might finally put it together.

Scott Downs: with Bj Ryans velocity still in the mid to low 80's Cito Gaston has mention Downs name for save opportunities. Downs could be the full time closer if needed and it looks like Ryan will have a short leash if not a early DL stint coming.

Recommendation: handcuff Ryan with Downs.

Kevin Gregg: He was officially named the closer over the weekend and I say he keeps the job all year. Pinella wants Marmol as a set up guy and that is how it will stay.

Recommendation: Gregg is who you want you can drop Marmol.

Jason Motte: He was named the closer this weekend and he has the best stuff of any Cardinals reliever.

Recommendation: Go get him in all leagues and hope he doesn't implode.

Carlos Villanueva: Was named the interim closer until Hoffman returns which could be awhile. Villanueva has enough ability that if he takes this job and runs with it he won't look back. Sorry Hoffy but you are over the hill Villanueva is very good.

Recommendation: If you have Hoffman you need Villanueva grab him and hang onto him Hoffman may be out for more then 2 weeks.

Losers:

BJ RYAN: Velocity issues in his second season back from TJ is not good and the Blue Jays appear worried by saying Scott Downs will get some save chances. Ryan should be fine but he might need a DL stint early to work on some things during a rehab assignment.

Chris Perez: Looked to be the Closer coming into spring. well he isn't he was sent down and Motte was named the closer. I won't say he wont be back but who knows with Larussa. If Motte Fails avoid the Cardinals Closing situation all together.

Price and Wieters: Sent down to start the year. Grab these guys and wait it wont be long it is just a money game now.

The Angels Rotation: All hurt, Lackey scares me, Santana will be nice if you can get him cheap, I like Weaver to put it together this year, and Escobar I think could be a big surprise this year stash him on your bench and hope for no setbacks.

Trevor Hoffman: That dreaded oblique injury that likes to linger for a long time has struck again. I think that Hoffman is on the fast track to retirement and Villanueva could definitely keep this job thanks to Hoffmans injuries and declining skills.

Joey Devine: Dealing with elbow pain and looks like he is heading to the DL. Devine has awesome stuff and should be the closer in Oakland but now it looks like injuries will keep him out for awhile. This is worth monitoring cause Devine is they reliever you would want in Oakland when healthy.

Carlos Marmol: He was not named closer and I don't think he ever will be. Pinella values setup guys way more then closers and Marmol is one of the best. Greg is the guy for the Cubbies and has enough talent to keep it all year barring injury. Avoid Marmol!

Week left to finalize those rosters I hope this helps. This next week is huge for filling those holes you have from draft day so make sure you are active on the wire.

The Bay State Scout