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Saturday, February 28, 2009

Shocker Picks From Roto Draft

All in all, I would say that this was a very competitive draft, the kind where someone is always taking "your" guy right before you're going to. Still many rounds had a pick that left my mouth agape. Now in using the term "shocker", I am not necessarily saying it's a bad pick, rather just something to ponder over an ice cold IPA. It all started in round 1 with David Wright going first overall to the Cubs Scout (yes it makes me chuckle too). It's not that he is unworthy, especially considering the dearth of legit 3rd basemen, but you would be hard pressed to convince me he is more valuable than Hanley Ramirez or A-Rod in a standard 5x5 roto league. Tim Linecum being the first pitcher drafted is not news (especially considering Santana's troubling arm troubles) but being taken at 16 overall by Scout Berardi shocked me. Also, maybe it was destiny that the top three 2nd baseman went off the board in round 2, but Dustin Pedroia at 17 overall by the Bay State Scout is a stretch considering his ADP is in the mid to late twenties. Round 3's surprise must have been a pleasant one for aforementioned Bay State Scout. He was able to procure the new A's leftfielder with the 24th overall pick. So maybe David Ortiz is not going the way of Mo Vaughn, but it's true the big guys don't age well and he is 33. So I just don't see the need to draft someone at the end of the 4th, ten spots ahead of their ADP, when they have health concerns and can only DH for your roto squad. 45.02 and 45.36. What do they represent? Well they are Brian McCann's and Russell Martin's respective ADP and you can't get much closer than that. So Martin goes at 40 overall to the Cubs Scout , not much of a reach if you want his steals but the superior (I think) McCann falls to the 52nd draft spot one spot after Mauer. Yes, I said after! For two players destined to go back to back I was stunned how much later he was drafted. On a side not don't draft catches early it's not worth it grab a Napoli, Clement, Molina (Bengie of course) or Iannetta late and get some real production from a real position from your early round picks. Chris Davis I like him, you like him Scout C.P. Staley loves him! How do I know? He drafted Davis number 54 overall a full twenty spots ahead of his ADP. You say he projects to 34 homeruns in 600 at bats I say he projects 186 K's. A solid stat for a pitcher but an ominous one for a young hitter. I am going against my beloved ADP on this shocker because Adam Dunn was drafted exactly where he should have been. So what's my problem? Well, Mr. Dunn is like a closer, a one category stud, his RBI and Run totals are adequate but his average blows like Big League Chew and he doesn't even steal bases any more. I could go on and on, but I think my point is clear: There is no one way to draft, but use ADP to your advantage. Scout PDX

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