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Tuesday, March 31, 2009

Forget your Closers

If you didn't draft or forgot to draft a closer here are some guys that could pick you up some cheap saves early in the season. Leo Nunez(FLO)- With the Marlins closer Matt Lindstrom going down in the WBC, Nunez could pick up some saves with him out. Nunez usually maintains a very good ERA but doesn't have closer experience and doesn't get a lot of strikeouts. Jason Motte(STL)- Last year having any Cardinals closer hurt your team more than help it. This year should be a different story. Jason Motte should win the closer job and this guy is lights out. He has all of the closer credentials: High K rate, low ERA and WHIP, and a fireballer. Only thing I'm worried about is that he has only been pitching for 3 years since being converted from a catcher. Carlos Villanueva(MIL)- The ageless wonder Trevor Hoffman has already gone down. Having no bullpen like the Brewers do they have to use converted starter to closer. He should become the Brewers closer for the first week or so unless they give the job to journey men like Todd Coffey or Dave Riske. Villanueva has been a decent starter and long reliever in his career so far but he should be able to keep the job warm for Hoffman until he comes back. Once again Villanueva isn't a big time K pitcher but usually keeps a good ERA.

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Monday, March 30, 2009

Get Your Close On

Two of the battles for the closer role have been decided - at least for now. Unless you are the Red Sox or the Yanks, no position is more transient then the major league closer. Jason Motte has secured the role in St. Louis as their opening day closer. He has had a fantastic spring and has a good chance of keeping the role all year. That is huge, a closer who can keep his job all year - yea, pick him up. St. Louis had way too many blown saves last year, many of them at the hands of Ryan Franklin, that has to change this year. It will with Motte. His closest competition was/is Franklin (I have a hard time believing that St. Louis was ever going to hand him the ball in the ninth again) and Chris Perez. Perez has been a little dinged up but is pitching alright now - still, he may not even make the opening day roster. Motte is fairly safe and should bring a nice end game that St. Louis desperately needs. Kevin Gregg has been named the closer in Chicago. Marmol was seen to be the favorite at the start of spring but Gregg has pitched better. This one scares me a little. Marmol has better stuff - hands down - which is why he was the favorite. Gregg however knows how to handle his stuff better. With Marmol waiting in the wings with his filthy pitches, I believe that Gregg will be on a short leash. Any injury and he will probably lose the role for the season (barring a complete meltdown of Marmol). Any prolonged struggle and Gregg will probably lose the role for the season. Marmol is the future closer of the Cubs. If you need closes, pick up either of these two if available. Motte is my first choice as I see him keeping the ninth inning. Gregg might keep the job, but Marmol is very appealing and I don't know if the Cubs can keep him out of the spotlight too long. I don't have the strength to talk about Seattle. Maybe to-'Morrow'. (oooh that was bad) -Scout Monkey (scout_monkey@gmx.com)

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Sunday, March 29, 2009

Spring fortunes rise and fall

As the last week of spring training comes to an end rosters are now sorting themselves out. There has been plenty to talk about with big time prospects Wieters and Price being sent down at least for April. we all know about those two so lets look at some new winners and losers from spring training.

Winners:

Brett Gardner: Giradi has named Gardner the starting CF for the yanks this year. Now if you came out of your draft light on speed don't panic YET! Gardner should definitely provide 30-40 steals and in that lineup he should chip in with some runs and a decent avg and obp.

Recommendation: Quickly get him if you need speed!

Dwayne Wise: Guillen has name Wise the starting CF and lead off hitter for the south siders. I don't think that he will last to long for the sox as a lead off hitter or center fielder. I think that ken Williams knows he needs to make a move and I could see Juan Pierre starting in Chacago by Mid Season. If no deal is made then Brian Anderson should end up being the starter in chicago.

Recommendation: Avoid

Jordan Schafer: With the trade of Josh Anderson to the Tigers center field in Atlanta is now down to Gregor Blanco and Jordan Schafer. Blanco stinks, my money is on Schafer he is having a great spring. This kid was a big time prospect until he was suspended for PEDs last year. well he is back and I say he starts and could provide some pop and some speed.

Recommendation: Pick him up in deep leagues and Keeper leagues could go 20\20.

Trevor Cahill\Brett Anderson: They made it thanks to Duchsherers injuries both will start in the rotation. Cahill has way more upside thanks to his Strong K rate but I am hearing that Anderson is the more polished of the two. My personal feeling is you can't go wrong with either, lets call them 1A and 1B. Just remember they are both only 21 and this is their first go in the Bigs expect growing pains.

Recommendation: Keeper\Dynasty Special and deep single season pickup. let someone else have them in those 8-10 team leagues.

Nick Adenhart: The Angels have all kinds of issues in their rotation with Lackey, Escobar, Santana and Weaver are banged up. Saunders who over achieved last yr has now become the De facto ACE for the Angels. Well now POST HYPE prospect Adenhart has a rotation spot and has had a solid spring lets see if he can live up to his potential this time.

Recommendation: Get him on your bench especially in keeper leagues, he has talent and might finally put it together.

Scott Downs: with Bj Ryans velocity still in the mid to low 80's Cito Gaston has mention Downs name for save opportunities. Downs could be the full time closer if needed and it looks like Ryan will have a short leash if not a early DL stint coming.

Recommendation: handcuff Ryan with Downs.

Kevin Gregg: He was officially named the closer over the weekend and I say he keeps the job all year. Pinella wants Marmol as a set up guy and that is how it will stay.

Recommendation: Gregg is who you want you can drop Marmol.

Jason Motte: He was named the closer this weekend and he has the best stuff of any Cardinals reliever.

Recommendation: Go get him in all leagues and hope he doesn't implode.

Carlos Villanueva: Was named the interim closer until Hoffman returns which could be awhile. Villanueva has enough ability that if he takes this job and runs with it he won't look back. Sorry Hoffy but you are over the hill Villanueva is very good.

Recommendation: If you have Hoffman you need Villanueva grab him and hang onto him Hoffman may be out for more then 2 weeks.

Losers:

BJ RYAN: Velocity issues in his second season back from TJ is not good and the Blue Jays appear worried by saying Scott Downs will get some save chances. Ryan should be fine but he might need a DL stint early to work on some things during a rehab assignment.

Chris Perez: Looked to be the Closer coming into spring. well he isn't he was sent down and Motte was named the closer. I won't say he wont be back but who knows with Larussa. If Motte Fails avoid the Cardinals Closing situation all together.

Price and Wieters: Sent down to start the year. Grab these guys and wait it wont be long it is just a money game now.

The Angels Rotation: All hurt, Lackey scares me, Santana will be nice if you can get him cheap, I like Weaver to put it together this year, and Escobar I think could be a big surprise this year stash him on your bench and hope for no setbacks.

Trevor Hoffman: That dreaded oblique injury that likes to linger for a long time has struck again. I think that Hoffman is on the fast track to retirement and Villanueva could definitely keep this job thanks to Hoffmans injuries and declining skills.

Joey Devine: Dealing with elbow pain and looks like he is heading to the DL. Devine has awesome stuff and should be the closer in Oakland but now it looks like injuries will keep him out for awhile. This is worth monitoring cause Devine is they reliever you would want in Oakland when healthy.

Carlos Marmol: He was not named closer and I don't think he ever will be. Pinella values setup guys way more then closers and Marmol is one of the best. Greg is the guy for the Cubbies and has enough talent to keep it all year barring injury. Avoid Marmol!

Week left to finalize those rosters I hope this helps. This next week is huge for filling those holes you have from draft day so make sure you are active on the wire.

The Bay State Scout

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Tuesday, March 17, 2009

Closing In On Closing Roles

As the seemingly endless Spring Training passes the midpoint, there are still many unsettled bullpen situations. Those of us who like to wait on closers and their one category goodness are awaiting the word on who will be shutting the door in Colorado, Chicago, St. Louis, and Seattle. In addition to those four, there is news from the WBC that Matt Lindstrom of the Marlins is having some rotator cuff issues and may not be ready for opening day. A closer is a special kind of pitcher. It is hard to understand why the last three outs are the hardest three outs to get. The pressure is different, the feel in the air is different, and opposing manager strategy is different. You can’t tell me you didn’t feel a chill come over you when the bells in Hells Bells starting ringing as Trevor Hoffman took his stroll towards the mound for all those years in San Diego. Countless numbers of relievers who have spent years getting outs in the 7th and 8th innings have failed miserably when asked to get the last three outs. I don’t understand how you can truly evaluate the moxie of a closer in Spring Training when in the back of everyone’s mind is the feeling that the games don’t mean anything, but I will do my best to guide you as you look to grab a few cheap saves. Chicago – Kevin Gregg and Carlos Marmol. Conventional wisdom would put Marmol, his filthy slider and his 1.31 K/9 rate as the clear favorite to with the job, but it looks like Gregg is having the better spring. In addition, Lou Piniella loves having his Marmol security blanket available in early jams, and Gregg has nearly two full years of closer experience. I would lean toward Gregg getting the call early, but Marmol is a good guy to have on your team even if he doesn’t win the job as his ratios will continue to be solid. St. Louis – Ryan Franklin, Jason Motte, and Chris Perez. Franklin ended last year with 17 saves and 8 blown saves, which is not a very good percentage, but does give him more experience than the two youngsters. Perez ended 2008 as the penciled in closer, but has struggled in his spring outings. Motte is the hardest thrower of them all and had a ridiculous 110K in 66 2/3 AAA innings last year. Tony LaRussa has said that he may wait until the end of Spring Training to name a closer, but for those who cannot wait that long I would say that Motte has a very slight edge over Perez. This is a situation that I would avoid as there is the possibility of a closer by committee to start the year. Colorado – Huston Street and Manny Corpas. It looks like Corpas will be the guy here. He has had success closing in Colorado in 2007, but lost his job to Fuentes last year. Street was acquired in the Matt Holliday deal this offseason and has been the subject of trade rumors ever since his plane landed in Colorado. It was often thought that they would hand him the job to showcase his talents until the Rockies found a suitor, but a sore quad has slowed him a bit this spring. If Street is dealt or they both struggle, look for Taylor Buchholz, who flourished in a set up role last year, to get a shot at the gig. Seattle – Everyone who has an arm. This situation is a mess. There is no one with a great deal of closer experience, and a new manager who doesn’t want one of his first big decisions to blow up in his face. This has closer by committee written all over it. The best possible outcome for cheap saves is if Miguel Batista wins the job. Not because I think he will have a great deal of success, but because he will have SP eligibility in most formats. Mark Lowe has expressed great interest in the job. Roy Corcoran, Tyler Walker, and David Aardsma have also been linked to the role this spring. To muddle the waters even more, the Mariners recently signed ex-Nats closer Chad Cordero to a minor league deal. He is not expected to be ready to compete right away as he is coming off labrum surgery last summer. My advice: Pass. Florida - This is Matt Lindstrom’s job if he is healthy. He left the WBC with tightness in his throwing shoulder that has since been diagnosed as a strained rotator cuff. He as been shut down for 7-10 days and is iffy to start the season, but the injury does not sound too serious. Leo Nunez would be the next in line to pick up saves, however I would wait for more information on Lindstrom’s injury before wasting a pick or a move on Nunez.

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