Spring Fever

With baseball players reporting to camps, spring training games about to start, and outside temperatures creeping towards tolerable, spring is here! Officially spring doesn't start until March 20th, but I'm not a slave to what 'The Man' says, it's here in my book. However, you can't talk about spring without mentioning the dreaded spring fever.

Spring fever manifests itself it several ways, but to fantasy baseball fans it often shows up with bad decisions. How so? For those who have had their draft, or are in keeper leagues, the desire to 'play' takes over. Since the season is still some time off, 'playing' happens in the form of trades. When you make a trade, your playing. This desire to play/trade is strong, so strong that bad offers are made in order to make a deal. For some reason we forget how good this player was, or how average that player performed and we offer lopsided trades, generally not in our favor. It's possible to 'play' your way right out of the post season without the season even starting! For those who haven't had a draft yet, you are protected as there is no bad decisions to be made... yet.

The bright side is that you are not alone. This fever affects other owners as well and this knowledge can be used to your advantage. To win the battle of spring fever and maybe come out ahead, follow these steps:

1) Know your team. There is nothing like making a trade for a player that fills a position that you already have nicely filled. Trades should always have the purpose of making your team better.

2) Research your trades. Do not be quick to pull the trigger. There is nothing wrong with offering trades this time of year, even lots of them, just do not be too hasty.

3) Test the waters. Send out trades that favor you (within reason, let's stay in the realm of fair) and see if you get any bites. Chances are, the fever is hitting someone and you can make some nice deals for yourself. Perhaps target some guys who are good but didn't perform well last year due to injuries, such as Jose Reyes, or Chien-Ming Wang.

Baseball is not too far off. The fever will subside. Until then, follow closely the above remedy and keep your yourself and your team healthy.

-Scout Monkey

( scout_monkey@gmx.com)

Buy High, Sell Low

A quick note to start: Sorry to the potentially-existing people who actually read me on this blog (which is to say, no one). I'm unreliable. Here's a transition: You know who else is unreliable? Francisco Liriano. Which brings me to the ditty I'm going to sing for you guys today: Buy High, Sell Low. Arguments are always going to rage about which guys are doing well and should be sold off while they're high, or which guys are slumping and should be bought while they're low. But oftentimes we overlook guys who are doing so awfully that you should get whatever you can for them--or guys that are doing well but are worth every penny. So it's Buy High, Sell Low (and man I hope I'm the first one to come up with this idea, if it exists somewhere else on the internet, sorry). Buy High Ian Kinsler, 2B, Texas. Kinsler was ranked preseason by many as the number one second baseman in baseball, and right now he still is. However, a mini-slump has dropped his batting average down to .282 and he's been hitting .243 over the past month. After his early-season dominance, his numbers still look pristine, but if Kinsler owners were ever starting to wonder what kind of value they could get for him, now would be the time. He is a legitimate top-10 talent, so anything less than that for him (or a 2-for-1, because everyone knows that the person getting the one player always wins) would be a great treat for you. See what your league's Kinsler owner needs and cast a line out. Kinsler is a 35/35 threat this year, and I think the batting average creeps near .300. Josh Johnson, SP, Florida. Another guy who had all kinds of early-season hype because of a fast start, and another guy who has pretty much kept it up. But the thing about Johnson is that, for whatever reason, the fan in the hype machine is just running on "low" setting right now. What happened to the Cy Young talk? I haven't heard anything about this guy lately and he's got a 2.66 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP. This might be your last chance to trade for him before he becomes a "name" guy, which means this might be the best value you can get for him in the next few years. Keeper owners, take notice: He is a legitimate fantasy ace for now and the future. Those ERA and WHIP numbers aren't really going to do much rising. Adam Jones, OF, Baltimore. Again, once these guys become "name" guys, their value is going to skyrocket simply because of who they are. I'm buying what Pac-Man is selling, and if you are as well then you should go get him even at what many would consider an inflated value. As soon as everyone's buying into him being a top-50 (or even a top-20) fantasy player, he's going to start commanding that type of value--right now I don't think you need to give up that much to get him. The thing about Jones is that the speed is going to be there in addition to the power; four stolen bases right now don't tell the whole story. Even though he's probably not going to hit .345 with 36 homers and 117 RBI like he's on pace for right now, he's also going to steal more than 13 bags. I'd expect a final line like .310/120/27/105/20. Mark Teixeira, 1B, New York Yankees. Tex has a history of starting terribly and finishing strong. But what happens when he starts strong? All bets are off for this guy at this point. Through 190 AB's this year, Tex is at 36/16/44/.279. Last year, through 191 AB's, he was 28/5/31/.267. Fun with extrapolation: Combine his numbers from then on last year with his numbers so far this year and you get a final line that looks like this: 110/44/144/.312. Yipes. Sell Low Francisco Liriano, SP, Minnesota. And it breaks my heart. But his control problems are going to plague him for at least this year before he even has a chance to work on them enough. His stuff is not as good as it was when he lit the world on fire coming into the league, and now he's exceedingly hittable. Something weird to note: Liriano has been awesome this year in the first 2 or 3 innings, and inevitably falls apart around the 4th. I don't know what to make of this, besides saying that hitters see something the first time through the order that they exploit when they see him next time. This is not good. Get what you can from the Liriano supporter in your league and cut your losses. Sorry. He's going to end up in the minors soon enough: The Twins just have too much pitching to let him linger with the worst ERA in the AL. Jimmy Rollins, SS, Philadelphia. Jimmy hasn't been hitting well for a while now, but he's still getting the respect out of some people that he deserved two seasons ago. You might not even be able to expect double-digit home runs out of him this year, and the power/speed combination is what made him so alluring. Right now, he's basically Emmanuel Burriss with a low batting average and a little bit of power. Exploit the name value while you still can. Rollins won't end up hitting in the .220s, but he won't hit .280 either. Matt Wieters, C, Baltimore. Okay, okay, hear me out on this one. Wieters' value has always been a huge question mark, so people never knew what to offer for him. Now that he's starting off his major league career with a slump, it's time to evaluate what kind of value you could get. Be stingy about it, but throw the ideas out there: Someone probably still has him ridiculously overrated. I think Wieters is the savior, don't get me wrong. But think about it this way: Let's say you have a painting worth a hundred dollars. You go a few months of holding onto it even though everyone thinks it's worth a million dollars. Now all of a sudden, maybe people think it's worth a hundred thousand dollars. If you sold it now, you'd still be making a ridiculous profit. Projections for Wieters? Grab them out of a hat. Who knows? That's the beauty. Brad Lidge, RP, Philadelphia. So you paid for saves. And now you're in a bind. Lesson: Don't pay for saves. If someone else in your league is dumb enough to (A) think that closers are worth anything and (B) think that Lidge is still an elite closer, then by all means, get whatever you can. His production can be replaced in most leagues quite easily. And if not, see if you can deal him for an under-appreciated closer like Brian Wilson and maybe a spare part or two. Lidge may very well end up turning it around, but who cares? It's just not worth it to sit and wonder if he's going to improve. So what if he's low? Sell him anyways.

Opening day here and now gone!

Well, we all waited with great anticipation for this day and now its gone. Opening day is almost like Christmas for fantasy owners, we all drafted OUR GUYS and want to see how they do. We all want to look like geniuses right off the bat and have our sleepers break right out of the gate on fire, so we can brag about how smart we were for drafting this guy and that guy. When looking at opening day with the tears of joy or remorse because your team stunk it up or blew the league away, just remember it is a LONG LONG season. Opening day never really tells you how the season will go. Do not PANIC your studs will be studs barring injury. The only thing opening day could do is help you make a trade or two. You need to start putting those feelers out there now on certain guys. Get to know your opposition and find that guy that is knee jerk reactionary so you can steal a "Stud" for a dud or two. Every league has THAT GUY who is now having a restless nights sleep because his "Stud" player laid an egg on opening day. THAT guy wants to give you his players and you should oblige him and take them off his hands. Tell him that Sabathia will not be good in NY or that Brandon Webb is really hurt. He is already thinking it so it isn't a hard sell. Start touting those young guys like Adam Lind "Man 6 RBI a HR this kid is going to Break out in a big way" you would be amazed at the offers you might get. Sell him a guy like Bonifacio " Did you see this kid 4-6 a HR 3 SB man he can fly he will steal 100 bases you watch" People will buy into it, the Hype train has left the station and Bonifacio is the conductor. I am a big believer in Selling high sometimes it burns you but in baseball usually guys do what they are supposed to do. A guy like Webb or Sabathia will be alright so try to catch someone napping and strike fast.

The Bay State Scout

Ambulance Chasing

The thought of a lawyer just waiting for injuries to occur, ambulance chasing, is a disgusting thought to many. They are preying and trying to benefit from other peoples pain. However, say all the bad things you like, that lawyer is an opportunist. That same opportunist attitude, which we may view as despicable with a lawyer, could help your fantasy team. How? Look for players on the DL. There are many good, big name players on the DL to start this season. There is a possible opportunity here for you to get one of them for a low price. Make some trade offers. Generally you would need to offer something of equal value for these names, but since they are on the DL, you might be able to get a discount. The catch is that you need to have some patience. It might be hard to give up a healthy player for another player who won't help you immediately. But remember, it's a long season. Deal with the short term pain to get the long term gain. Here are a few of the name that you could target: Kelvim Escobar - He might not have even been drafted! He will be in the majors within a month. Arod - Probably won't get too much of a discount, but it's worth a shot. Scott Baker - Good pitcher, could get great value in a trade here. Ichiro - Big name, could be difficult to get much of a discount. B.J. Upton - Worth a lot to a fantasy team. Any discount would be a win for you. Ervin Santana - Excellent pitcher. Joe Mauer - Top catcher, will be out a couple of weeks at least. Someone may be desperate. John Lackey - Yep, another very good Angel pitcher. Jeremy Bonderman - Not as good as some of the other names here, but you might get him for real cheap. -Scout Monkey (scout_monkey@gmx.com)

Trade 'em If You Got 'em

Just to be very clear, I am a 'Trade Monger.' I LOVE to trade in fantasy sports (By the end of the day of the fantasy baseball draft I had already proposed four trades). I love everything about it - figuring out what kind of deal I could make, proposing trades, receiving trade proposals, and the anticipation of not knowing if someone will accept. To me it is like the 'pop' in popcorn, the 'bubble' in bubble gum, it takes a good thing and makes it better. However, not everyone feels like me. In fact I know some who feel quite the opposite. Their motto is, 'Dance with who you brought.' I respond to that, 'What if you brought someone who doesn't dance?' In any case, if you are a 'Trade Monger' like me, be sure to follow some simple steps in order to not be 'that guy' in your league. ('That guy' is the annoying guy who you wish wasn't in your league and may not be in it next year). Step One - Let people know that you are a 'Trade Monger.' Give them a heads up and give them a way out. Whether you are playing with friends or strangers, let them know that you like to propose a lot of trades. Give them the option to tell you that they don't want to deal with lots of offers. Now you can trade appropriately and respectfully. Step Two - Keep your trades in the realm of reasonableness. No one, even trade mongers, like to receive lots of trades of the 'are you kidding me' variety. Please, please do not attempt to offer (enter awful player name here) for (enter great player name here). If you do offer a trade that might be of the questionable variety give an explanation for why you are doing it - people can at least see where you are coming from and it's not just a 'I want your best player for nothing' trade. Good rule of thumb, if the position was reversed, would you consider your trade offer? Step Three - Give lots and lots of leeway for trades proposed to you. This falls in line with the 'if you live in a glass house...' saying. If someone offers you a trade that you think is bogus, do NOT overreact, do NOT send messages back to the proposer with how stupid he is and how stupid he must think you are. As a trade monger, you are in no position to give anyone a hard time with their proposals. That is a right you have given up, deal with it. If you are like me, you are always looking for ways to make a deal. By following these steps, you can be a successful 'Trade Monger' while not making the other teams upset (and risking not being invited back next year). Happy trading! -Scout Monkey