Buying and Selling the First Four Days

Buy! Sell! Buy! Sell! Money, Money, Money!!! Ok, so I just wanted to sneak in a reference from an obscure Tracy Morgan SNL skit, sue me. Tracy’s character was just pretending to be involved in the market; you on the other hand are involved. Fantasy Sports are not unlike the stock market in that the objective is to buy low and sell high. It’s awful early in the season to be talking about buying or selling your players, but let's take a look at a few things that have transpired thus far - at the four day mark - and whether or not you should buy or sell what you’ve seen so far. Let’s get down to business: BUY: Emilio Bonifacio. This guy has popped up on most peoples radar already (for a more in depth look at Emilio check out the column posted by my colleague, Scout Monkey, from earlier this week). Obviously he won’t get on base at a .600 clip all season and he has very little power but he has the starting job, he’s hitting leadoff and he’s lightning fast. 40 stolen bases and 90 runs is by no means out of the question. SELL: Tony Clark. This should go without saying; but don’t get overly excited about the two home runs Tony hit opening day. Clark has hit 30 homers four times in his career, but hasn’t hit more than 17 since 05, which was back when he was a full-time starter. Expect Clark to continue to back up Chad Tracy at first base and not play enough to be worth a roster spot, even in an NL only. BUY: Chris Carpenter. Carp had his first start Thursday and threw 7 innings of one hit ball allowing no earned runs. Naturally you can’t expect those numbers to hold up but the former Cy Young winner looks to be on his way back to his old form. I don’t think a mid-three ERA and 180k’s is out of the question, although injury is always a concern for Carpenter. SELL: Felipe Lopez’s power. I don’t mean to pick on the D-Bags…err… D-Backs, honestly. Lopez is a solid player and actually I think he will have a pretty decent year, but don’t get too roped in to the two homers he hit opening day. Felipe has only hit more than 11 homers once in his career (23 in ’05) and averages 14 home runs per 162 games played. He might give you .280 with 20 steals but don’t count on more than 12-15 home runs. BUY: Nelson Cruz. I absolutely love this kid! In only 104 games in Triple-A last year Cruz smashed 37 home runs, drove in 100, stole 24 bags and managed to hit .341 while doing it. Clearly, he’s "not in Kansas anymore" but the Rangers home park is a launching pad and make no mistake; Cruz is for real. Expect something in the .290-30-100 range with 10-15 steals for good measure. Did I mention I love this kid?! SELL: Carlos Quentin’s performance so far. After Carlos had his coming out party last year a lot of people felt it was a fluke. I am not one of those people. Granted, it’s too early on to be worrying about anyone this side of John Lackey, but even still I am not worried about Carlos. Last years 36 and 99 on August 25th might be a lot to ask, but expect to see him finish close to both of those numbers if he plays the full season. PCB Scout

Questions? Comments? Random nonsense? Email me at pcbscout(at)gmail.com

Opening Day Eye Openers

Finally, Finally. Bags of peanuts are falling from the sky, overpriced beer is going down like water, and the smell of hot dogs has never been sweeter. Opening Day is here, and all is right in the baseball world. In the fantasy baseball world however, there are a few things that have left some owners scratching their heads today. I will start with some happenings in the desert today. You will be hard pressed to find an Opening Day in the next 15 years that will have neither Upton in the starting line-up, but that was the case today. B.J. Upton is on the DL still feeling the effects of off season surgery. Justin, one of the most hyped preseason sleepers spent today on the bench in favor of the newly healthy Eric Byrnes. The Arizona juggling act doesn’t end there. Mark Reynolds, another projected starter, spent Monday on the bench in favor of Chad Tracy, who was penciled in as the starting 1st baseman. The biggest surprise in the D-Back line up was the presence of Tony Clark manning 1st base. Clark responded to the starting nod by hitting two homeruns. Tracy, who was shifted across the diamond, hit a game deciding homerun in the 7th. Manager Bob Melvin responded to questions about his line-up with this quote, “The only message we're sending is we're trying to run the best lineup out there on a particular day." He has also said that Reynolds and Upton will be in the starting line-up in game two, but with the solid first day from Tracy and Clark we could be looking at some platoons forming. Clark has not been an everyday player for years and figures to just get a start or two a week, so he should not be seen as a fantasy asset or a major threat to steal time from anyone. I would assume that Reynolds and Tracy will each see 140 plus starts at the corner infield spots. A healthy Eric Byrnes does throw a wrench in the D-Back outfield. With Byrnes, Justin Upton, Connor Jackson, and Chris Young, there are four starting outfielders for only three spots. If Byrnes can keep his hamstring healthy all year he could be a solid waiver wire grab, as he is one year removed from a 21HR/50SB year. From the above quote it looks as if Melvin will be employing an outfield by committee to start the season. All four outfielders are should be owned in 12 team mixed leagues, but you will just have to keep an eye on the line-up on a daily basis for the time being. The Washington Nationals may have a disgruntled outfielder in their dugout, and Elijah Dukes is one person I would not want mad at me. Dukes was another preseason breakout candidate that was not in the starting line-up. He was sat today after being informed that Austin Kearns has won the starting job. Kearns was once a top prospect in the Reds system that has never put his tools together for an extended period of time. Dukes has too much upside to be kept on the bench for long, I see him making his way back into the line-up soon so don’t cut bait on him just yet if you have the bench space. The cancelling of a game in Chicago due to snow when it never actually snowed was not the only confusing thing to go down in the Windy City. Those of you who spent a high pick on Alexei Ramirez probably will not be too happy to find out that he will be hitting 8th in the order to start the year. Most people thought he would be hitting 2nd or maybe even leading off depending on who won the CF job. Taking a look at his stats from last year you will see that he does not have the peripherals of a normal top of the order hitter. 18 walks in 480 at bats last year and an OBP of .317 do not scream lead off guy. It is not like he strikes out a lot, but he is a guy who has never met a pitch he doesn’t like. If you are going to hit high in the order for Ozzie Guillen, or any one for that matter, you need to take some pitches and draw some walks. I can see him making his way up to 6th or maybe even 5th in the line-up on some days, but I do not foresee much of an improvement over last years’ numbers. He is 27 after all. Keep in mind that Opening Day is just one day. It is just the one day where everyone thinks they are a contender. What happens today by no means will set anything in stone for the remainder of the year, but it can provide some insight into what the managers really thought of their teams in Spring Training. No need to panic and drop guys who went 0-4 or rush and grab the next Tuffy Rhodes who had a solid day one, but keep in mind… They all count now fellas, so put your game face on.