To Helton and Back
"Helton is swinging the bat as well as he has in years." -Rockies GM Dan O'Dowd
In a couple of years from now VH1 will finally have themselves a viable “new” show idea (it happens once in a while): "Remember the 00's." They won’t spend too much time discussing the hitting prowess of Colorado Rockies slugger Todd Helton's exploits in the first 7 years of the decade, they will be too busy with Britney’s headshaving meltdowns, American Idol, and Bushisms such as “I know the human being and fish can coexist peacefully.” But hardcore baseball fans and fantasy enthusiasts alike realize just what Helton once was to baseball at the turn of the century.
Though it hasn't been that long since 35 year-old Helton was one of the elite players in the game, the fact that he did it in the relative obscurity of an oft-empty Coors Field makes it seem like an eternity has passed since Helton was one of the most feared hitters on the planet. Well, that and the ZZ Top goatee he now sports can play tricks on the memory. What many fantasy owners may not realize is that Helton has posted an AVG better than .300 and an OBP better than .400 in 10 of the past 11 years, and has appeared in at least 144 games for 10 straight years before a degenerative back condition cut his 2008 campaign short.
While the bad back has sapped Helton of the home run power he displayed during his prime, he has evolved into a savvy veteran hitter with an exceptional plate approach. Helton drew the second most walks In baseball in 2007, contributing to his .434 OBP (good for 2nd best in baseball). Not only did Helton post an incredible OBP, his 24.1% line drive percentage in 2007 suggests that his .345 BABIP (.005 points higher than his career average) was not a fluke, but rather the .295 BABIP while playing through pain last season was. After a successful back surgery in September last year, Helton claims to be feeling the best he has in years: “Every game I play, (the doubt) goes away.” Sure, this is what everyone coming back from an injury claims, but Helton’s stats this spring should make fantasy owners' doubts go away as well. Currently, Helton is hitting .448 with 4 Home Runs and 12 RBIs in 11 games this spring.
Keep in mind, spring stats tend to be insignificant for many reasons so you can’t simply expect him to continue mashing balls over the fence at this pace. But what you can expect is that so long as he stays healthy, Todd Helton will be a productive hitter…a productive hitter who plays half of his games in Coors Field at that. Obviously you don’t want to start the season with Helton at the top of your teams’ depth chart at 1B (unless you are in an extremely deep league), and depending on your league he may not even warrant a draft pick. But he is at the very least an interesting player worth keeping an eye on in shallow leagues and a serviceable backup or platoon partner in deeper leagues worthy of one of your very last picks (especially in OBP leagues). If Helton does find his way to the trainer’s room this season (which is admittedly quite likely given the nature of his degenerative back condition) you can easily cut your losses, having invested very little in a high upside player. Should Helton defy the odds and play a full season he will provide excellent value. I always say that high-upside late round picks don’t have to be young.
Todd Gold is a first year professional baseball scout and sports junkie who enjoys taking his friends' hard earned money in fantasy leagues and helping his readers do the same. You can contact him here.Labels: KC Scouts, Todd Helton