Sleeper Ace - Part 2

Jake Westbrook, SP, Cleveland Indians, did not throw a pitch last year in the majors. Tommy John surgery will do that to you. But now over a year and a half has gone by since the surgery and Westbrook is ready to go.

What can we expect? Well, before surgery he was a 15 win guy, his ERA was around 4.00 (some years better, some worse), and he struck out about 1 batter every 2 innings. I think Westbrook can keep his ERA around 4.00, the strikeouts will probably be around the same clip, but the wins is where we might see a little dip. Cleveland is not bad, but they were a little better when Westbrook was last pitching. Still, I'm seeing value.

Westbrook looks to be the opening day starter (Staff 'Ace'), which cuts both ways: On one hand, it shows that the Indians like what they see (plus Westbrook says he is feeling good). On the other hand, as the opening day starter, it is going to pit him against all the other teams aces. This could end up with him having a few losses out of the gate until the rotations start to mix.

In any event, I like Westbrook as a late round sleeper in H2H point leagues and a potential waiver wire pickup in deep roto leagues. When healthy, he is a workhorse (200+ innings), and he could do that this year. The team around him is not bad, but the division is competitive. I like him for 13 Wins, 4.10 ERA, and around 100 Ks. I also believe that the more he pitches, the stronger he will get. So if he is available after the draft, watch his starts closely. He is not a top tier starter, but could absolutely give some value to your fantasy team in deeper leagues.

-Scout Monkey

( scout_monkey@gmx.com)

We're Still Friends - Daniel Murphy

Last year I loved Daniel Murphy. I saw Murphy as a tremendous sleeper. I saw a young guy who already had some success in the majors the previous year and who loves to spend time in the batting cages to work on his hitting. I respected the hard work he was putting in. However, he had a bad year for the Mets, and for me.

This year, my view of him has changed dramatically. But he still has value.

The Mets have already said that Murphy will be the starting first baseman. This hurts his value some as he is not a typical slugger and he plays in a pitchers park - he is not going to be a 40 HR guy, I would be shocked if he hit 30.

If he struggled last year and is not going to put up typical first base numbers, why do I think he has value this year? A starting first baseman for any team needs attention (Last year, those who paid attention to Kendry Morales were greatly rewarded). Murphy will be counted on as an RBI hitter. He will be used in the heart of the lineup. With David Wright and Jason Bay hitting somewhere around him, he should get pitches to hit. There were also some positive signs last year that Murphy was getting over his struggles at the plate. After an abysmal start, he hit at a .280+ avg the rest of the way. Murphy ended the year with a .266 AVG, 63 RBIs, and 12 HRs.

This year, I will give Murphy the .280 avg, I will give him around 20 HRs, and 80 RBIs. There is room for improvement on these numbers (he had a .300+ AVG in his first 50 games in the bigs). He should not be drafted in a shallow league, and would be a fairly late pick in deep leagues. I think Murphy can be a great fill-in for an injured starter on your team or even a UTL guy depending on match-ups. If his average approaches .300, he could turn out to be a solid late round/waiver wire pick. Last year I loved him, this year we'll just be friends.

-Scout Monkey

( scout_monkey@gmx.com)

Enter the Matrix with Big Papi

Sporting my favorite nick name in baseball, David 'Big Papi' Ortiz is a bit of a mystery for this fantasy season. Are we going to get the injury bug version, the slump version, or the clutch hitting monster? Let's listen in on this conversation:

Me: I think Big Papi has some real sleeper potential this year.

Friend: Wait. Isn't he that kid from the Keanu Reeves little league movie, 'Hard Ball'? Boy, that Keanu Reeves can act!

Me: Um... Uh... Wow! No, I'm talking about David Ortiz, DH for the Boston Red Sox. He has the nickname 'Big Papi'.

Friend: Oh. My mistake. Do you think Keanu Reeves has the nickname 'Big Matrix'? Or how about 'Big Excellent Adventure'?

Me: I'm about to be 'Big Vomit' if you don't stop. Look, David Ortiz was one of the most clutch hitter I've ever seen. He hit for high average and great power. But the last time he did that was two years ago.

Friend: How do you know this? Did Rufus come visit you with a time travelling phone booth?

Me: No, I have a memory. The point I'm trying to make is that he has had two bad years since he last was a dominant player. Although he still had 99 RBIs last year, his AVG has gone way down (.238 in 2009) and his power numbers have lowered (28 HR in 2009). But injury has played a big part of that. I think we just may see a healthy David Ortiz this year and he will be a nice surprise for fantasy teams.

Friend: Talk about a nice surprise. How about Keanu Reeves in 'A Walk in the Clouds'? So sensitive. Or what about Keanu doing Shakespeare? He was brilliant in 'Much Ado About Nothing'. Is there anything this guy can't do?

Me: I'm pretty sure he can't hit a curveball *cough* or act *cough*. Anyway, Ortiz is not going to be picked very high in any draft (unless someone is really biased). His value drops a little more as he only qualifies as a DH.

Friend: 'What do you do?' 'What do you do?'

Me: You draft him late. You accept that he is not going to hit .300, probably more like .260, and you accept that he will not be hitting 45 HRs, probably more like 30 (with a reasonable chance of 35+). View him as a classic slugger, low AVG, good HR, and good RBIs. He will never be a top pick again, but I'm not ready to write him off to obscurity.

Friend: Strange things are afoot at Fenway Park. You know, Keanu helped 'Big Papi' on that little league team, imagine what he could do as a coach for 'Big Papi' on the Red Sox. Also imagine what valuable life lessons we could all learn in the process.

Me: You make me sad. I'm leaving now.

Friend: Alright. Party on dude!

-Scout Monkey

( scout_monkey@gmx.com)

Fantasy Noir: Brett Anderson

The room was dark, difficult to see, but I had no problems finding the bottle. The two of us have spent a lot of time together and the night's plan's weren't any different. Then walked in Trouble with a capital T. Why her parents called her Trouble, I'll never know. She had a problem, she was a women after all. The slap from that remark didn't surprise me, the roughness of her hands did - Hmmm, Trouble. With her flowing blonde hair partially covering her face she sat on the corner of my desk and crossed her long legs. She asked if I could help with a little issue she was having. I gave her my standard answer, a cold "Maybe." It doesn't inspire many clients but it does lower their expectations to a level that is closer to mine. With narrowed eyes, she asked, "I need you to do a little snooping on someone. I need to know what he is up to." Her eye's were turning red, a tear fell down her cheek. Perhaps she was sad, perhaps it was the fact I hadn't showered in a few days. Either way, I felt bad for her. I'm a sucker for tears, especially if they belonged to a blonde. With a raspy voice I said, "Two hundred big ones plus expenses and I'll take the case." She agreed, I knew she would. Hey, if she is at my door, that means a lot of other ones already closed on her, she was desperate, my clients always were. I asked her the name of the guy I would be investigating, she said, "His name is Brett Anderson. He is a minor league pitcher, but he's telling me he's in the bigs now. I don't' know what to believe. I need to know if I'm wasting my time on this fella." I knew right then and there that a heart was going to be broken - If this Anderson guy doesn't check out, it would be hers, if Anderson is on the up and up, then it would be mine. I hate my job, but I hate my bookie even more so I told her I would take the case and her money. With my hat pulled low and my trench coat tied tight, I headed out to my informants. It's amazing what you can get for a little green. The dirt I got was fairly clean. Anderson wasn't a liar, he had made the bigs and is the A's fourth starter. They have several young guns, but he seems to be the most refined. He works fast between pitches and really goes after hitters. Scares me a little that this guy comes into the strike zone so much without having anything overpowering. But, who am I to argue, he's on the team, I'm not. There is also a concern that his stay in the bigs may only be temporary, as this Duchscherer character might come back and take his place, sending Bretty-boy back to the minors. His left arm may say different. Satisfied with my info, I returned to the office, not without a stop at the watering hole of course - 'expenses.' Trouble found me later the next day, usually trouble finds me a lot faster. I told her that Anderson was a guy she may want to hold onto for the long haul. He definitely has potential. He may not give her a lot this year, but the next years could be very profitable. He could end up being the next Tom Glavine, or a nobody - it's not my place to say, but a guy with decent stuff and great control is usually a solid guy to be around. That's why I'm usually alone. On hearing my report, she smiled for the first time since I met her. Happy that her man is a stand up guy and probably happier that she wouldn't be seeing me again. She paid me for the expenses and was out of the office and out of my life before you could light a cigarette. The job was done. I reached again for my favorite friend and we spent a quiet night making up for lost time. I might check back on this Anderson kid in a month or two to see where he's at. More importantly to see if Trouble is at his side. After all, I'm a P.I. - it's what I do. -Scout Monkey (scout_monkey@gmx.com)

"It's Guy Love"

A man crush, guy-love, whatever you want to call it, I have it with Daniel Murphy. Scout Hoffman has just written an article on the newest object of my affection and I loved every word ('Hot Spots - Daniel Murphy'). Why am I so enamored with this player? It's cuz he's a cage rat. What on earth is a cage rat? It's the baseball equivalent of a gym-rat (the basketball player that is first to show up and last to leave). Daniel Murphy loves the batting cages, and you will often find him there in his free time. When I hear that the guy was skipping classes in college in order to hit in the cages, it makes my heart go boom. Really, I guess it boils down to his work ethic. I would like to think that if I was ever to make a pro team (laugh long and hard), I would be known as the guy that practices as hard as anyone. The guy who is a real student of the game. That is what you have with Daniel Murphy. Practices hard, and asks questions of his team mates on how to be better. I find that guys who practice to this level end up in one of two categories: 1) The not naturally talented but make up for it with his effort player. Also know as a 'Gamer' 2) All-star. Make no mistake, Jordan, Tiger, Rice, etc. are all supremely talented, but work as hard, if not harder, then anyone in practice. It's very early, but I think Daniel 'You had me at hello' Murphy will fall into category 2. Now I'm not saying he is the baseball version of Michael Jordan (the basketball player version) but I think someone with his dedication and talents will make him an all-star (not this year - love is blind but not that blind). Now we don't have a big sampling of his talent in the big leagues, but the small amount we saw was good. He has now earned a full time starting position in the Met's outfield, he will produce this year, enough for you to take notice and have him in you lineup. Decent speed, decent power, good bat, surrounded by a good Met's offense is something that you think would demand attention, but he is going undrafted in most leagues. Keep an eye on him, set him aside, start him, just don't let the opposition have him. Daniel 'Heart Throb' Murphy will make my team and my dreams. -Scout Monkey

Kendry Morales: Pure Vanilla

If you are at a restaurant with friends and your order vanilla ice cream, you are bound to get the, "Boring" comment. Yes, vanilla is boring compared to some kind of super fudge blast, banana supreme sundae. However, vanilla is still good. No matter how good the other desserts may be, you will not be unhappy with vanilla. It's sweet, it's creamy, it's safe, it's good. With Kendry Morales, 1B for Los Angeles Angels, you are getting vanilla. At this point I hope you see that I'm trying to say that vanilla is not necessarily a bad thing. He will be a solid player, but probably won't 'Wow' you with his numbers - vanilla. With that said, let me say something else that might grab your attention. The starting first baseman for the AL East favorite Los Angeles Angels is going undrafted in most leagues. Really? Yep. The only reason that I can really see for this is that he does not mash homeruns like some of his first base counterparts. In fact, he is very similar to his cross town counterpart in the NL - James Loney for the Dodgers. As good as vanilla is, you throw a few toppings on it and you have quite a desert. What kind of toppings does Morales bring? Well, we already discussed that you are not getting the hot fudge - he is not hitting the long ball (20 would probably be a good year for him). If you can't have the hot fudge, how about some caramel? Take it, it looks like this guy will be hitting in the 5 spot which should make a lot of opportunities for RBI's. Could he crack 100 RBI? Yes, but I'm thinking that the 75-80 range is probably what you will get with him. Morales will even give you a cherry on top - he hits for Avg. Good Avg, good RBI, a little pop, good team, get him late in the draft - Vanilla has never been so good! -Scout Monkey

No Sneeze Jokes Please

Shin-soo Choo. Now, let's all say it together, 'Guzuntheit.' Now that we have that out of our systems, make it your goal to never do it again. Please, if the best you can do with the name Shin-soo Choo is to make a sneeze joke, you need to raise your game. Work on some better material. I will help you out. Feel free to use any of the following Shin-soo Choo names you will find in this article, or better yet, make up your own. Shin-soo Choo-pacabra (see picture - if I'm the opposition, I would hope for either an out or a HR. I wouldn't want this guy standing next to me at first) is a 26 year old outfielder for the Cleveland Indians. I'm not the first person to give attention the this player, but good things bear repeating. Shin-soo Choo-choo-Train started off slow when he made it to the big leagues but made up for lost ground in the second half. How does .318 12 HR and 50 RBI's sound? If you take what Kick-Him-In-the-Shin-soo Choo did in his 300+ ABs and calculate that for a full season, 500+ ABs, his line could look very much like this: .300+ Avg. 23 HR 110 RBIs 6 SB. Not bad for a guy who is being drafted after the 20th round. Wait, there is more! Shin-soo Choo-Talkin-to-Me was a very good base stealer in the minors. He clearly wasn't running in the majors with his 4 SB but at 26 years old, he still has his speed. 15-20 SB in a full season is very reasonable. Will Shin-soo Choo-ing-Gum live up to all the hype? Don't know, no one knows for sure. But 300 big league ABs is a decent sample. I like the upside. Shin-soo Choo-Bacca is a sleeper I'm taking a chance on. Yes, I Shin-soo Choo-choo-Choose you. -Scout Monkey

Russell Who?

Sleeper Alert! Russell Branyan should now be on your radar.

Why Branyan? Branyan has always been one of those guys, you know, great power but never enough AB's. As of right now Branyan is having a great spring and should go into the regular season as the everyday first baseman\DH for the M's. Branyan should contribute great power numbers if he gets close to 500 AB. Nothing has been stated but I would assume that he will also be in a prime RBI spot in the M's lineup, maybe 5th. He won't hit for a great AVG but I could see him producing like a Jack Cust(30 HRs, some RBI, some R and not much else). Branyan is a guy to look at for your bench because he will have 1st and 3rd eligibility by mid April and with the amount of AB's he should get, 30 HR is definitely attainable.

If he gets 500 AB I could see him doing something around a 240-75-30-87-3 type stat line.

THE BAY STATE SCOUT

Sleeper SP On Nationals - Really!

When you think of the Washington Nationals and of sleepers, 2 names come to mind - Lastings Milledge and Elijah Dukes. You can find them on many sleeper lists. But what about a 22 year old Pitcher named Jordan Zimmermann? Who? Jordan Zimmermann. This pitcher is competing with Colling Balester (also 22 years old) for the fifth starters spot. As I did my research on Zimmermann it surprised me that I hadn't seen him on ANY sleeper lists. When words like, 'Top Prospect', 'Poise', 'Impressive', and so on, are thrown around, generally people have at least heard of the guy. I hadn't. I just happened upon an interesting article that mentioned Zimmerman and that led me to research him. Did you know that he did not allow a base runner until his third spring start? Did you know that he hasn't allowed a run yet this spring? Did you know that he has struck out 10 in his 8.1 innings pitched? Who is this again? Jordan Zimmermann, Washington Nationals. There must be a downside right? Yes there is. He is young and will probably walk more batters then you (or he) would like. He is not guaranteed a spot in the rotation (yet). Did I mention he's young? There are always growing pains for a young pitcher, the question is whether they will be long term or temporary. My vote is temporary. What should I do with Jordan Zimmermann and my fantasy team? That depends on several things. Here is my opinion: - If you are in a shallow league, just keep an eye on him. - If you are in a deep league, tuck him away if at all possible. - If you are in an AL only league, you really should have stopped reading by now. - If you are in a keeper league, stash him away and gloat when he becomes a stud! Zimmermann may not be on many sleeper lists (let me know if you find one), but he's on mine. -Scout Monkey

A Real Sleeper (Because That's What Old People Do)

If some no-name was lighting up spring training for the Giants, I feel like there would be a rumble about his one earned run in 8 1/3 innings of work with a 12:3 K:BB ratio. Strangely, since the guy isn't a no-name, I haven't heard anything about him. That stat line belongs to Randall David "Big Unit" Johnson, all of 45 years old this season. Right now, Randy's going 174th overall in your average Yahoo! draft, which doesn't necessarily make him the sleepiest of sleepers, but I think he's being undervalues. People are mesmerized by the potential of unknowns like Clayton Kershaw (162) and Brandon Morrow (164) and the old guy is sliding into the next round. Even everyone's really sleepy tired exhausted sleeper, Josh Johnson, is going at 157. I think Johnson is going to be a lot better than those guys. Besides the hot spring, the guy has been pretty consistent even with his strange 5.00 ERA in 2006. The guy is a WHIP machine (even in 06, it was 1.24... a 1.24 WHIP with a 5.00 ERA? Has that ever happened?) which helps if your staff is anchored by a Billingsley type, and he never stopped striking guys out (173 in 184 innings a year ago). But I think we've gotten so used to him that he's about the 50th pitcher off the board. You could make a strong case that he needs to go earlier, especially consider the fickle nature of the position. Either that, or you should definitely target him where he is, because unlike a lot of the questionable commodities he's going around (Ted Lilly), he's much steadier than the average bear. I mean, come on. Even Erik Bedard is going before him. Why is that? Do you think Erik Bedard is going to recapture his one good season? Unit has had about 154 good seasons. It doesn't matter that the man is 45; he was 44 last year and was great as well. And he seems healthy. Just a quick fun thought: how pumped would you be if you started a keeper league in 1987 and you drafted Unit? How proud would you be every day? Legitimately 22 years' worth of happiness. This is why fantasy baseball rules. Of course, I wouldn't know--that was the year before I was born. Be that as it may, don't sleep on the old man. You're the one that should be waking him up and sending him to the mound.

The Seattle Grunge Sleeper

Me: Hey friend, I have a sleeper tip for you for the upcoming draft. Friend: Cool! Lay it on me! Me: Adrian Beltre. Friend: Who? Me: Adrian Beltre, 3B for the Seattle Mariners. Friend: Seattle has a team now? Awesome! They should call themselves the ‘Raindrops’, no wait, the Seattle 'Grunge!' Me: Hmm, that’s actually pretty good, but umm, they’ve had a team for years. Haven't you heard of Ichiro? Friend: I LOVE Pokemon! Me: No, Ichiro Suzuki, CF for Seattle. He’s really fast, has a cannon for an arm… Friend: A cannon for an arm? I would counter with Squirtle. You know, they should really try to sign Pikachu, he’s clutch. But whatever, I’m just glad Seattle finally has a team now. Me: 'You’re killing me Smalls!' Anyway, Adrian Beltre is their 3B and I think is going to be a great sleeper pick this year. Friend: The name actually does sound familiar, didn't he play for the Dodgers? Me: Yes! He had a great year right before he went to Seattle. I have theory on why he did so good and why he will be good this year. Friend: Aliens? Evolution? Deep Throat? Harry Potter? Me: What? No! Contract year. Friend: He’s a contractor? Is he reliable? I had this one guy… Me: Stop talking. Just listen. His final year with the Dodgers, 2004 a CONTRACT year, he went ballistic at the plate. He was a monster (48 HR, .334 Avg)! At the end of the year he got a big contract with Seattle. However, before 2004 and each year since, he has not duplicated that success, not even close. He has been solid, but never great. Well, this year is another contract year for him. See where I’m going with this? Friend: Your saying he will play extra good this year to get a big paycheck next year. Did you think of that all by yourself? That's not your theory, everyone knows that. What your saying is that all contract year players are sleepers. Me: No, although it’s always good to keep an eye on contract year players. What I’m saying is the amount of increase in Beltre's performance on his last contract year was WAY above his average (48 HR, 330+ Avg. vs. 23 HR, .260+ Avg.). He didn't just try a little harder, he gave it everything he had. I think he will be pushing to duplicate that increase. Not that he will have the same kind of year as when he was a Dodger, but a definite increase with the potential for something special. Whatever he did to get those numbers, I think he will do again. Worst case, you get a solid 3B late in the draft, best case you get a top ten 3B very late. Not a bad thing either way. Friend: I guess that’s a pretty good tip, thanks! Do you know where can I get a Seattle Grunge jersey? Me: Sigh. -Scout Monkey