From Feel Good Story of the Year..........

To The Nightmare on Yawkey Way!

Don't get me wrong Jon Lester's '08 stat line is impressive.

Starts    Innings     Wins     Losses    K's      BB     ERA    Whip

  33         210.3         16           6              152     66      3.21    1.27

He also had 20 quality starts and both of his complete games were shutouts.

So what's not to love?  

Well let's step into my WayBack Machine and travel to the year 2007 (try sounding like Conan O'brien when you read that).  Now that we're here you will notice that his total innings at the end of the '07 season are 165.4 including his major, minor and playoff appearances.  

Now looking back, I mean forward to his '08 combined innings, which total 236.5, even non sabermetric statisticians can see the huge disparity between the two seasons.

30 innings has become the defacto standard for safely upping a young starting pitchers inning from one year to the next.  Lester has over doubled this number with a mammoth increase of 71.1 innings and he doesn't even pitch for Dusty Baker.

Recent (in)famous victims that have fallen prey to larger than 30 inning jumps include Francisco Liriano, Mark Prior and Yovani Gallardo among others.   

Is Lester going to blow out his arm? I hope not, but we will have to wait and see.

Should you draft him?  Definitely, if you trust his arm.  

His ADP has him being taken between the 8th and 9th round and his numbers are worthy of that drafting him there.

And someone will draft him, just not me.  I'll be scooping up later round bargains like Gil Meche and  Javier Vazquez.

If you are in a Yahoo league draft.......

Pablo Sandoval catcher for the the SF Giants. Wait you say, I thought their catcher was Bengie Molina who had a great season last year. Your right the eldest Molina is the SF catcher and is worth drafting late as well, but in Yahoo leagues you only need 10 games at a position in 08 to be eligible there in 09. While I prefer a 20 game threshold for eligibility, this falls under the category of knowing your league's rules and taking advantage of them. With an ADP of 188 he could be your steal of the draft if you target him just earlier than this, say your pick that is closest to the 170th draft spot. While Sandoval likely won't rake at last years late season pace because of his low walk rate, he is a candidate for .280-15-75-70 or better which is a great line for a late round round catcher. Actually make that any catcher.

Scout PDX Draft Critique

Everybody loves the draft it's at least 37% of the fun of playing fantasy sports, especially in the grandaddy of them all roto -baseball! Being a realist, as I like to describe myself, I thought I would go back over the choices I made and point out some high and some low-lights of the affair. It was a competitive draft and made for some intriguing decisions. My normal game plan is to focus on hitting in the early round and look for some good value pitchers. Sound familiar? It should, as it is the most common strategy proposed by most "experts". For me it is a twofold strategy, as it is a proven winner and risk reducer, as well it plays to my personal strength of identifying up and coming pitchers better than young hitters. So here goes. #6-Ryan Braun, I love outfielders, they do it all and they are replaceable, unlike a SS or 2b. Braun was my 5th on my cheatsheet, so with his 8th overall ADP I more or less knew he would fall to me. I had hoped Wright, 3rd on my list would slip to me, but even pre A-rod hip cyst he went 1st overall. We all know Braun is a stud so 'nuff said there. #15-Carlos Beltran, with and ADP of 19, was not likely to make it to the next round, and favoring him over studs such as Longoria, Berkman and Teixiera I pounced. Also, not being of the camp that position scarcity rules I had no problem going OF-OF to start my core. #26-Nick Markakis, the Greek God of everything rounds out my OF and brings more 5 category awesomeness to my squad. Fielder tempted me, but Markakis' SB won me over. #35-Cole Hammels is a young horse and we are just beginning to see the tip of his brilliance so I pounced. I had him rated as the 3rd best pitcher, behind Santana and Linecum. With his ADP of 46 I may have been able to get him or Webb in the next round, but there wasn't a player I liked better available. So I eschewed his ADP and happily took the anchor for my fleet of SP's. #46-Ichiro, was a category play and the decision between him and Alexei Ramirez, who went with the following pick, was one of the toughest of my draft. I think he can be a bit overrated, but in the middle of the 5th he seemed like a bargain. I also knew I could wait on Jose Lopez till much later and get 2008's 4th best 2b for a song. (yes, I am a Mariners, no I am not a homer in drafting and no I am not excited about Griffey Jr. (he should be called Sr. now) returning to the Safe, even if he did build it. #55-Chipper Jones, I had to get away from OF's and Chipper, who would rank as my 13th best player if he stays healthy which he won't, was a no brainer. Also knowing that I could draft a superb backup in Adrian Beltre in mid-teens solidified this pick for me. #66-Jaime Shields was my second choice here and my first, Francisco Liriano went one pick before me. Shields has ace potential and makes a solid deuce behind Hamels. Tempted by Brad Lidge and Derrek Lee here, but I think he was the best value of available players. I may have reached as his ADP is 84, but with Liriano gone it seemed like a no brainer. #75-Derrek Lee I was really stoked (with a caveat) to get Lee here. He is not going to steal double digit bases or put up MVP type numbers anymore, but he is going to hit for a good average with solid power numbers. If I were to do it again though, I would have taken Joey Votto here or in the next round. #86-Brad Lidge is one of my steals of the draft. I have him rated (tentatively) as the 2nd best closer this year and watched him slide and slide while lesser players were picked. I follow the common, but sage advice to wait on closers and this is a perfect example why it is a strategy that pays dividends. #95-Vernon Wells was a computer as I fiddled with my cheat sheets. My queue had emptied and the mercurial Wells was not my first or tenth choice here. I really wanted Felix Hernandez, oh well. #106-Zach Greinke, was another pick, like Shields, where I may have jumped the gun but after missing Felix I had to have him. Gallardo, who was gone with the next pick, has more potential and was tempting, but Greinke has his health and plenty of talent going for him. #115-Jhonny Peralta not only filled a desperate need, but was great value as I bailed on the top SS who were all picked earlier than I wanted. #126-Matt Cain is no Tim Linecum, but he still a great 4th starter and could potentially be my second best SP if pitches up to the level of his talent. #135-Matt Capps is one of my top sleeper closers. He could easily finish as a top ten fireman and you can get him late, maybe even later than I did. I did not want to chance it and end up with George Sherrill as my second RP #146-Jose Lopez was the 4th best 2B last year and should easily match and likely build on last years offensive success. A huge bargain at this point of the draft and I calculated his availability perfectly. #155-Adrian Beltre, see my Chipper Jones pick for details and yeah I knew I would get him #166-Johnny Cueto is this years Edison Volquez ie: forgotten sophomore pitcher with great stuff that can be had late.....real late. This pick had comedown to Cueto and Scherzer, and Scout Berardi made my decision for me. Thanks! #175-Mike Napoli won't hit homeruns at 2008's pace, but if he even plays remotely full time he will be a top 5 catcher, taken a dozen rounds after the top 4. The Big Unit was my other option here and I still debate trying to hold on one more round for Napoli.

Why you shouldn't draft a catcher early

Here is a tale of two players, A and B Player A's 08 stats: AB R HR RBI BB KO SB BA 538 91 29 115 62 108 3 .312 Player B's 08 stats: AB R HR RBI BB KO SB BA 509 68 23 87 57 64 5 .301 While both put up solid numbers last year, who would you draft first? Obviously looking at the numbers you would say player A with his superior numbers in every category (I know B had 2 more SB but that is negligible when you look at their total lines). And you would be right because player A, Kevin Youkilis is drafted first but player B, Brian McCann is being picked only 2 spots later on average. I know you say but he's a catcher, position scarcity and such, but I say forget that. If you draft Youkilis and Bengie Molina (157th overall) your roto stat line is: AB R HR RBI SB BA 1068 137 45 210 3 .302 If you draft McCann and Pat Burrell (149th overall) your roto stat line is: AB R HR RBI SB BA 1045 142 56 173 5 .275 The differences are not earth shattering but when you consider how close first and third can be in a roto category then the disparity is important. So yes, McCann and Burrell edge Molina and Youk in runs and kill them with nearly 25% more home runs, but the huge difference in BA and RBI more than make up for it. For those who say Bengie won't drive in 95 this year I say your probably right, but even if he finishes with 15 less ribbies his duo with Youk is more valuable. Happy drafting Scout PDX

Shocker Picks From Roto Draft

All in all, I would say that this was a very competitive draft, the kind where someone is always taking "your" guy right before you're going to. Still many rounds had a pick that left my mouth agape. Now in using the term "shocker", I am not necessarily saying it's a bad pick, rather just something to ponder over an ice cold IPA. It all started in round 1 with David Wright going first overall to the Cubs Scout (yes it makes me chuckle too). It's not that he is unworthy, especially considering the dearth of legit 3rd basemen, but you would be hard pressed to convince me he is more valuable than Hanley Ramirez or A-Rod in a standard 5x5 roto league. Tim Linecum being the first pitcher drafted is not news (especially considering Santana's troubling arm troubles) but being taken at 16 overall by Scout Berardi shocked me. Also, maybe it was destiny that the top three 2nd baseman went off the board in round 2, but Dustin Pedroia at 17 overall by the Bay State Scout is a stretch considering his ADP is in the mid to late twenties. Round 3's surprise must have been a pleasant one for aforementioned Bay State Scout. He was able to procure the new A's leftfielder with the 24th overall pick. So maybe David Ortiz is not going the way of Mo Vaughn, but it's true the big guys don't age well and he is 33. So I just don't see the need to draft someone at the end of the 4th, ten spots ahead of their ADP, when they have health concerns and can only DH for your roto squad. 45.02 and 45.36. What do they represent? Well they are Brian McCann's and Russell Martin's respective ADP and you can't get much closer than that. So Martin goes at 40 overall to the Cubs Scout , not much of a reach if you want his steals but the superior (I think) McCann falls to the 52nd draft spot one spot after Mauer. Yes, I said after! For two players destined to go back to back I was stunned how much later he was drafted. On a side not don't draft catches early it's not worth it grab a Napoli, Clement, Molina (Bengie of course) or Iannetta late and get some real production from a real position from your early round picks. Chris Davis I like him, you like him Scout C.P. Staley loves him! How do I know? He drafted Davis number 54 overall a full twenty spots ahead of his ADP. You say he projects to 34 homeruns in 600 at bats I say he projects 186 K's. A solid stat for a pitcher but an ominous one for a young hitter. I am going against my beloved ADP on this shocker because Adam Dunn was drafted exactly where he should have been. So what's my problem? Well, Mr. Dunn is like a closer, a one category stud, his RBI and Run totals are adequate but his average blows like Big League Chew and he doesn't even steal bases any more. I could go on and on, but I think my point is clear: There is no one way to draft, but use ADP to your advantage. Scout PDX