Catching Some Rays - Leslie Anderson

Leslie Anderson is another Cuban ball player that should have an impact in the majors this year, and he has just signed with the Tampa Bay Rays. Like his fellow countryman Jose Julio Ruiz (who is also being scouted for the majors), Anderson can play both 1B and OF. His defensive skills are excellent and he would be a stellar defensive first baseman, but being of average power, he would be a better fit in center or left field.

Anderson is 27 years old, which means he is not the typical major league prospect. He has already shown that he can play ball at a high level. Last year, this lefty batted .381 (not a typo) with an OBP of .490. Now that wasn't against MLB pitching, but in his defense, Cuba has some talented pitchers. Being that he has this much experience, it is not out of the question for him to break camp as an everyday starter. I would imagine that some AAA time would be a good thing, but even if he is sent down, it shouldn't be for too long. Overall, I see him as a Bobby Abreu type hitter - solid in all aspects, a difficult out.

When it comes to where to draft Leslie Anderson, it has to be in later rounds. As much as I like the potential here (I think the Abreu comparison is real), you have to temper expectations for the adjustment to the major league. Keep an eye on what position he will play as that will determine his value some too. He will be more valuable as an outfielder then a first baseman. It's possible that he will go undrafted in all but the deeper leagues, but he should be contributing on someones fantasy team before the year is out, likely before the ASB. If you choose not to draft him, be ready to grab him at this first signs that he has adjusted to the bigs.

-Scout Monkey

( scout_monkey@gmx.com)

Following Kendry - Brandon Wood

A talked about prospect who hasn't put it together in the bigs yet. That sentence could be used for a lot of players. Last year, that was what could have been said (and no doubt was) for Kendry Morales, 1B, Angels. He finally lived up to the hype and became a stud in fantasy. Yes, there are better 1B then Morales, but that list got dramatically shorter. And how good was it for you who grabbed him late or off the waiver wire? This year, we have someone on the same team who could do the same thing. Brandon Wood.

Brandon Wood has been the future SS or 3B for the Angels for what feels like many years now. Well, the future is now, barring injury or a terrible spring, he will be the starting 3B this year. Third base, like first base, is a position that demands attention in fantasy sports. These are positions that teams count on for production. So any starting player at these positions, even unknowns, should be watched closely. Wood, however, is not a complete unknown.

Wood's minor league stats shows great talent, with a good AVG (.280+), and above average power (30 HR potential). But in his 224 big league at-bats over the last 3 years he has only managed a .192 AVG, 7 HR, and 19 RBIs - not very exciting. But his playing time was sporadic at best, not the way to get into a groove. Being an everyday player, he has the potential to start to put it together and be the guy the Angels have been looking for. Which is exactly what happened with Morales last year.

Having two guys breakout in a big way, in back to back years, is unlikely, but not impossible. Even if Wood doesn't reach his full potential, he can still have good value as a late round pick (It's worth noting that Woods has already gone deep in spring training). He's not worth overpaying for, but is worth a bench spot in moderately deep leagues. These are the type of guys that can make your fantasy year - a late pick that produces like a high one. Learn from Morales and take a chance on Wood.

-Scout Monkey

( scout_monkey@gmx.com)

We're Still Friends - Daniel Murphy

Last year I loved Daniel Murphy. I saw Murphy as a tremendous sleeper. I saw a young guy who already had some success in the majors the previous year and who loves to spend time in the batting cages to work on his hitting. I respected the hard work he was putting in. However, he had a bad year for the Mets, and for me.

This year, my view of him has changed dramatically. But he still has value.

The Mets have already said that Murphy will be the starting first baseman. This hurts his value some as he is not a typical slugger and he plays in a pitchers park - he is not going to be a 40 HR guy, I would be shocked if he hit 30.

If he struggled last year and is not going to put up typical first base numbers, why do I think he has value this year? A starting first baseman for any team needs attention (Last year, those who paid attention to Kendry Morales were greatly rewarded). Murphy will be counted on as an RBI hitter. He will be used in the heart of the lineup. With David Wright and Jason Bay hitting somewhere around him, he should get pitches to hit. There were also some positive signs last year that Murphy was getting over his struggles at the plate. After an abysmal start, he hit at a .280+ avg the rest of the way. Murphy ended the year with a .266 AVG, 63 RBIs, and 12 HRs.

This year, I will give Murphy the .280 avg, I will give him around 20 HRs, and 80 RBIs. There is room for improvement on these numbers (he had a .300+ AVG in his first 50 games in the bigs). He should not be drafted in a shallow league, and would be a fairly late pick in deep leagues. I think Murphy can be a great fill-in for an injured starter on your team or even a UTL guy depending on match-ups. If his average approaches .300, he could turn out to be a solid late round/waiver wire pick. Last year I loved him, this year we'll just be friends.

-Scout Monkey

( scout_monkey@gmx.com)

Enter the Matrix with Big Papi

Sporting my favorite nick name in baseball, David 'Big Papi' Ortiz is a bit of a mystery for this fantasy season. Are we going to get the injury bug version, the slump version, or the clutch hitting monster? Let's listen in on this conversation:

Me: I think Big Papi has some real sleeper potential this year.

Friend: Wait. Isn't he that kid from the Keanu Reeves little league movie, 'Hard Ball'? Boy, that Keanu Reeves can act!

Me: Um... Uh... Wow! No, I'm talking about David Ortiz, DH for the Boston Red Sox. He has the nickname 'Big Papi'.

Friend: Oh. My mistake. Do you think Keanu Reeves has the nickname 'Big Matrix'? Or how about 'Big Excellent Adventure'?

Me: I'm about to be 'Big Vomit' if you don't stop. Look, David Ortiz was one of the most clutch hitter I've ever seen. He hit for high average and great power. But the last time he did that was two years ago.

Friend: How do you know this? Did Rufus come visit you with a time travelling phone booth?

Me: No, I have a memory. The point I'm trying to make is that he has had two bad years since he last was a dominant player. Although he still had 99 RBIs last year, his AVG has gone way down (.238 in 2009) and his power numbers have lowered (28 HR in 2009). But injury has played a big part of that. I think we just may see a healthy David Ortiz this year and he will be a nice surprise for fantasy teams.

Friend: Talk about a nice surprise. How about Keanu Reeves in 'A Walk in the Clouds'? So sensitive. Or what about Keanu doing Shakespeare? He was brilliant in 'Much Ado About Nothing'. Is there anything this guy can't do?

Me: I'm pretty sure he can't hit a curveball *cough* or act *cough*. Anyway, Ortiz is not going to be picked very high in any draft (unless someone is really biased). His value drops a little more as he only qualifies as a DH.

Friend: 'What do you do?' 'What do you do?'

Me: You draft him late. You accept that he is not going to hit .300, probably more like .260, and you accept that he will not be hitting 45 HRs, probably more like 30 (with a reasonable chance of 35+). View him as a classic slugger, low AVG, good HR, and good RBIs. He will never be a top pick again, but I'm not ready to write him off to obscurity.

Friend: Strange things are afoot at Fenway Park. You know, Keanu helped 'Big Papi' on that little league team, imagine what he could do as a coach for 'Big Papi' on the Red Sox. Also imagine what valuable life lessons we could all learn in the process.

Me: You make me sad. I'm leaving now.

Friend: Alright. Party on dude!

-Scout Monkey

( scout_monkey@gmx.com)

Knock the Mock

As the 2010 baseball season approaches, and just as important, your 2010 fantasy draft approaches, it is nice to get in some practice with mock drafts. However, there are some dangers that you must be aware of when you do your mock drafts. Mock drafting can be both good and bad. Read the below points to get some ideas of how to use mock drafts to your advantage.

Here's the skinny:

The Good:

• Mock drafting gets you thinking in 'draft Mode'. 'Draft Mode' is the ability to make smart decisions according to your game plan in the allotted time. This is usually not done well on the first couple of drafts, but as you continue to mock draft, your game plan and approach gets stronger. This is a big plus.
• Mock drafting gives you a feel for where players will go in the draft. After a few drafts, you should kinda know who's going in the top rounds and who will be around later. This is a good time to see who might be over and under rated.
• Mock drafting is a good time to try out different strategies. Try different things and see how your team comes out in the end. May come across a new strategy!
• Mock drafting is fun.

The Bad:

• Being that the draft is not real, people may not take it too seriously. If they are not taking it too seriously, their picks may not reflect 'real' picks.
• Just like you, others may be trying out different strategies. You could end up with a false sense of how the draft went due to someone trying something bizarre.
• Take into account how many people are in the draft. Seems straight forward, but it's easy to overlook. If your real draft is 12 people but your mock drafts are 10 people, the results simply won't match up very well. It's not pointless, as you can still see who the popular picks are, but it can't be used as a guideline for what round a player will go in.

Keeping these points in mind should help you have effective and safe mock drafts. Have fun!

-Scout Monkey

( scout_monkey@gmx.com)

'Bargain' Brett Anderson

After doing a lot of research on Brett Anderson, I have come to the conclusion that he is a middle round pick that is going to pay off. He's too young to be a top pick (22). His numbers are not good enough to be a top pick (11-11, 4.06 ERA, 150 Ks in 175 innings). His flashes of dominance show that he could perform as a top pick.

His 'stuff' has impressed a lot of people. Not only is it good, it is accurate. It's one thing to throw a slider, quite another to throw a slider that catches the black. Anderson has shown he can do this. He has the ability to strike out a batter an inning, and has the ability to minimizes any damage by getting a lot of ground balls. Nice combo.

So what is the bad news (there is always bad news)? 1) Brett Anderson is only 22 years old and young pitchers can struggle. 2) His team is not great. I think he will pitch well enough to win plenty of games, but his team may not give him run support. 3) He threw 175 innings last year - that is a solid work load for a 21 year old rookie. I haven't seen any talk of a pitch count, so he may get worn down this year. However, at 6'4" and 235 pounds, he may have a frame that can handle it - we'll see, but it's worth mentioning.

Anderson should be picked up in most all formats. He will not be there too late, but if you can grab him after the middle round, he could really give your team a nice boost. Keep in mind, some think he can be an elite pitcher THIS year! I love potential, but I'm not riding that band-wagon yet. However, he should easily perform above (perhaps way above) his draft position making him a great 'Bargain'.

-Scout Monkey

( scout_monkey@gmx.com)

Julio Borbon - Pierre With Power

Juan Pierre with a touch more power. That is how I would describe Julio Borbon, CF for the Texas Rangers.

Borbon is young, only 24, but has shown some serious talent at the major league level. Last year, 46 games, he batted .312, 30 Runs, 20 RBIs, 4 HRs, and 19 Stolen Bases. Solid. The next time Juan Pierre hits that many homeruns in less then 50 games will be the first time.

If we calculate that Borbon played a 1/3 of a season, that would mean that over a full season he would have 90 Runs, 60 RBIs, 12 HRs, and 50+ Stolen Bases. That would be pretty sweet! Can he continue at this pace for a full year? Not sure. But he will get his chance.

Texas has made it clear that he is the starting center fielder and want him as their leadoff hitter. So what we have in Borbon is a starter with good potential, a nice sample of big league games, and plays on an offensive minded team. There is a lot to like here.

I would value Juan Pierre a little higher then Borbon just because of his stellar track record, but Borbon could out perform him - especially with a little more power. Julio Borbon is another good young outfielder that can be had late in the draft.

-Scout Monkey

( scout_monkey@gmx.com)

Spring Fever

With baseball players reporting to camps, spring training games about to start, and outside temperatures creeping towards tolerable, spring is here! Officially spring doesn't start until March 20th, but I'm not a slave to what 'The Man' says, it's here in my book. However, you can't talk about spring without mentioning the dreaded spring fever.

Spring fever manifests itself it several ways, but to fantasy baseball fans it often shows up with bad decisions. How so? For those who have had their draft, or are in keeper leagues, the desire to 'play' takes over. Since the season is still some time off, 'playing' happens in the form of trades. When you make a trade, your playing. This desire to play/trade is strong, so strong that bad offers are made in order to make a deal. For some reason we forget how good this player was, or how average that player performed and we offer lopsided trades, generally not in our favor. It's possible to 'play' your way right out of the post season without the season even starting! For those who haven't had a draft yet, you are protected as there is no bad decisions to be made... yet.

The bright side is that you are not alone. This fever affects other owners as well and this knowledge can be used to your advantage. To win the battle of spring fever and maybe come out ahead, follow these steps:

1) Know your team. There is nothing like making a trade for a player that fills a position that you already have nicely filled. Trades should always have the purpose of making your team better.

2) Research your trades. Do not be quick to pull the trigger. There is nothing wrong with offering trades this time of year, even lots of them, just do not be too hasty.

3) Test the waters. Send out trades that favor you (within reason, let's stay in the realm of fair) and see if you get any bites. Chances are, the fever is hitting someone and you can make some nice deals for yourself. Perhaps target some guys who are good but didn't perform well last year due to injuries, such as Jose Reyes, or Chien-Ming Wang.

Baseball is not too far off. The fever will subside. Until then, follow closely the above remedy and keep your yourself and your team healthy.

-Scout Monkey

( scout_monkey@gmx.com)

Juan 'Not Gone' Pierre

Here is another outfielder who will be available late in your draft that can give you some good numbers. Juan Pierre.

Pierre has been stuck in obscurity while in LA because they simply had too many outfielders. The Dodgers had to play Manny, Kemp, and Ethier ahead of him. However, he will not have any problems getting playing time on the White Sox. I think it was a strong/smart move for them to pick up Pierre.

What do you get with Juan Pierre? Most notably, stolen bases. Outside of his rookie year, he has never stolen less then 30 bags (even while playing part time for the Dodgers). He has stolen more then 60 bags in a season twice. Bottom line is that this guy is fast and knows how to steal (more then speed is involved with base thieving). As a full time player, expect an easy 40+ swipes. What else do you get with Pierre? You get a career .301 hitter, a guy that should give you around 90 runs, and kick in about 40 RBIs. You will NOT get the long ball. Pierre hit 13 homeruns, not last year, but in the last 10 years total. Nuff said.

As with many other outfielders, Pierre is not a high draft pick and can be had late in your draft - hence the Juan 'Not Gone' nickname.

So repeat after me, I will fill in my shallow positions before I fill in my outfield.

-Scout Monkey

( scout_monkey@gmx.com)

UN-der-RATE-ed, UN-der-RATE-ed

One of the best words you want to hear for fantasy baseball is 'Underrated'. This means a player is not viewed as being as good as he is. This means he will be available late in your draft or even on the FA list. I have a hard time thinking of anyone who this word applies to more then Franklin Gutierrez, CF, Seattle Mariners (Although, Placido Polanco is a perennial underrated player).

Gutierrez is known for his defense, but he's even underrated with that as he was robbed of a Gold Glove last year. But that's beside the point (for fantasy). The guy can really hit. This 'defensive' player, put up a strong line last year - .283 AVG, 18 HR, 70 RBIs, 85 Runs, and 16 Stolen Bases. All of this in his first year as a full time starter. He just turned 27 (on Feb. 21) and there is no reason to think that he can't improve on all of those numbers.

Honestly, Gutierrez is not going to light the world on fire this year, but how would you like a .290+ AVG, 20 HR, 80 RBI, 90 Runs, and 20 SB from a guy you can get very late in your draft? Frankly (no pun intended), I would love it. I'm planning on it.

I've said it before, and it bears repeating, with so much young and underrated talent in the OF this year, focus your high draft picks on the shallower positions. Franklin Gutierrez is probably going to be a 'left over' that can be readily had once you fill your other needs.

-Scout Monkey

( scout_monkey@gmx.com)

Outfield On The Cheap

Nolan Reimold, the 27 year old outfielder for the Baltimore Orioles, had a great rookie year in 2009. For a first year player to put up a .279 AVG, 15 HRs, and sprinkle in 8 SBs in about 100 games is solid. Now a year older, 2010 can be a year for him to shine.

The book on Reimold is that he has a good combination of speed and power. Playing a full year, I think it would be a safe guess to put him at 25 HRs and 20 SBs. If he can keep his AVG up, say in the .280s, then he will be a great late round pick. You have to like a guy who can give you good numbers across the board, Runs, HRs, RBIs, AVG, SBs. I think Reimold can be a poor man's Matt Kemp.

We all know the big names when it comes to the outfield, and we know that if we want them, we need to spend a high pick. But with so many good young players, you should be able to spend your high picks on the weaker/shallower positions (like 2B), and use guys like Reimold to fill in your outfield in the later rounds.

-Scout Monkey

( scout_monkey@gmx.com)

The Other Dodger

When talking about the outfield for the L.A. Dodgers, two names come straight to mind, Manny Ramirez and Matt Kemp. Manny is an established super-star (although his star is fading), and Kemp has shown that he is an elite outfielder and will be for years to come. What about that other guy? Listen in on this brief conversation.

Me: I'm really looking forward to the another season of Dodger baseball! Their outfield is jammed with talent!

Friend: I know, with Manny in left center and Kemp in right center, they are loaded!

Me: Left center and right center?

Friend: Yea, how else would they play their two outfielders?

Me: What are you talking about? The Dodgers have three outfielders like everyone else.

Friend: I can only remember them playing two last year. Are you sure you are not thinking of a mascot or something?

Me: I'm quite sure. You seem to be forgetting about Andre Ethier. He plays right field.

Friend: Andre Ethier? That's a weird name for a mascot. Anyway, mascots aren't real players.

Me: You're killing me Smalls. Andre Ethier is the Dodger's everyday right fielder and was last year. I know Manny and Kemp get a lot of attention, and for good reason, but Ethier is fantastic. Lets do a little comparison.

Friend: Alright. Which do you like better, Jam or Jelly?

Me: Just stop talking. I want to compare Ethier with Kemp. Kemp had a .297 avg last year, Ethier had .272. Kemp - 26 HRs, Ethier - 31. Kemp - 101 RBIs, Ethier - 106. Kemp - 97 Runs, Ethier - 92. Kemp is much faster and had 34 SBs, while Ethier had more walks and less Ks. All in all, Ethier's fantasy value is very comparable to Kemp!

Friend: Color me impressed.

Me: Kemp is still the more valuable of the two, but Ethier is only just behind him. In fact, in my Yahoo H2H league, Kemp was the 8th best point getter (for outfielders) and Ethier was 12th. I think that he will be a steal in most leagues. Kemp will go in the top couple of rounds, while Ethier will go much later and yet perform like a high end pick.

Friend: This is good advice, and good news for the Dodgers!

Me: Glad you agree.

Friend: The Padres should pay attention, all they have is one infielder.

Me: Sigh.

-Scout Monkey

( scout_monkey@gmx.com)

A Kick to the Groin

I can't imagine how difficult it must be to be a prospect on the cusp of making it to the bigs and then your team signs a veteran at your position. Gotta be like a kick to the Groin.

Austin Jackson, OF, Tigers - He was the main piece of the Curtis Granderson trade and was going to be the starting center fielder for the Tigers. That is until the Tigers just signed Johnny Damon. The Tigers no longer need to rush Jackson, and can field a solid outfield with Magglio Ordonez, Johnny Damon, and Carlos Guillen. To add insult to injury, Damon will probably be the leadoff guy, the spot that the Tiger's were looking to put Jackson in. As far as Damon goes, expect similar numbers to last year, with a few less HRs (he is in a pitchers park now as opposed to the New Yankee Launch Pad). Austin Jackson's value takes a hit. His playing time will probably be cut some, and his position in the lineup will probably be in the latter half. You have to keep an eye on him, but his big contributions may not come until next year.

Josh Thole, C, Mets - A double insult here. Thole is one of the best prospects that the Mets have, catcher or otherwise, but with TWO catcher signings, he probably won't sniff the bigs this year. The recent signing of Rod Barajas, and the past signing of Henry Blanco shows that the Mets are clearly not looking for Thole to make an impact this year. Thole is still a good prospect, but don't even look his way until 2011. Barajas is the epitome of average (when it comes to hitting), should hit around .250 with 15-20 HRs, and around 60 RBIs. Nothing here to get too excited about.

-Scout Monkey

( scout_monkey@gmx.com)

Unknown Jose Julio Ruiz

Jose Julio Ruiz was unknown to me until recently when his name popped up in an article about an impending signing. Since reading that article and several others, I'm a little surprised that I'm only starting to know about him now. The attention he is receiving from major league clubs shows that he is definitely not unknown around baseball circles.

Jose Julio Ruiz is a 25 year old Cuban ball player who defected and appears nearly ready for the bigs. Generally listed as a first baseman, he has the athleticism to play the outfield. Not bad a for a guy who is 6'3" and weighs around 230 (Arod size). Not bad indeed as he has been known to steal 30+ bases in a season. Can he hit? Playing for Cuba, he has a lifetime average of .330 (5 years), and has decent power (I would put him at 20 to 25 a year). I think he could be a slightly stronger, faster version of James Loney.

Ruiz believes he is ready to start very soon. In fact, that is a huge part of his decision as to where to sign (which is believed to happen in the next week or so). He feels he is ready to go (expect at least some time in AAA, but who knows). Regardless of how he is listed on your fantasy site (1B or OF or whatever), consider him a very strong prospect and draft accordingly. Being that there is a very good possibility that he will contribute sooner then later, he should definitely be considered in most formats that aren't too shallow. I imagine that he will be drafted rather late due to the 'unknown factor' - be ready to pounce. Now it is true that Ruiz is unproven when it comes to MLB, but the talent in Cuba is very good, so the transition shouldn't be too bad (I expect a much faster transition then Kendry Morales).

Jose Julio Ruiz may have been unknown to you, his playing position may be unknown, and how good he will be in the majors is still unknown, but don't be scared. Unknown Jose Julio Ruiz will not be unknown for too long.

-Scout Monkey

( scout_monkey@gmx.com)

Ode to Daisuke Matsuzaka

Time to cash in on a wasted season.

Target Dice-K in your draft for good reason.

Dice-K was side tracked by injuries last year,

Now with no WBC, and better prep, there is nothing to fear.

He will not be valued too high,

others will just pass him by.

But, a mid to late round decision

should give you strength at this position.

In 2008 he pitched rather great.

Lost only 3 and won 10 plus 8.

A 2.90 ERA kept the hitters at bay,

striking out about 1 an inning along the way.

The Red Sox are good and should give him plenty of support.

15+ wins, 3.40 ERA, and 150+ Ks sounds like a reasonable 2010 report.

Despite a soar back,

Dice-K remains on track.

He should be ready by the opening bell.

Have him on your fantasy team and you should do well.

-Scout Monkey

( scout_monkey@gmx.com)

Wang Nats!

Chien-Ming Wang has signed with the Washington Nationals. It's hard to believe, but I like how the Nationals are shaping up! With the latest addition of Wang, they could have a good rotation, dare I say excellent (especially with the potential of Strasburg).

What should we expect from Wang? I am willing to overlook his unbelievably bad stats from last year and just chalk it up to injuries (9.64 ERA, 1W, 6L). If I am right, then he will be back to his old form - ace (or near ace) capabilities! Prior to injury, he pitched stongly in a very tough AL division (2007 - 3.70 ERA, 104 Ks, 199.1 innings). Now he is in the NL, still a good division, but he will now have the advantage of no DH to go up against. Also, lets face it, in general the NL is a weaker hitting league (I hate to say it, I'm an NL guy, but it is what it is).

Now you still have to be concerned about run support, but I believe the Nationals will be alright, after all, it wasn't their biggest problem last year. *cough*bullpen*cough*

I can't really say that you should draft Wang as a top pitcher (especially since he will miss at least a month recovering from surgery), but he has the potential to be that, especially if he keep his pitches down. A mid to late round pick could deliver in a big way. Do I hear come-back player of the year?

Scout Monkey

( scout_monkey@gmx.com)

Harvesting the Farm - Part 3

On the farm, some things take longer to grow then others. Baseball players are no different. Part 3 of this series is going to focus on some players that will more then likely be late call ups at best but are still considered top prospects. You want to know these names as they may surprise us this year, and should be on your radar for next (especially those of you in keeper leagues).

Justin Smoak, 1B, Texas Rangers - I must admit, I am very impressed with what the Rangers have going. They have some good young pitchers (including some real studs in their farm), and they continue to have great hitting. It's almost unfair that they have Justin Smoak. Smoak is a switch hitting 1B - ala Mark Texeira. At 23 he has nice power which should keep increasing. The only thing that has slowed him down is good AAA pitching. Before AAA he had a .320+ AVG, but it took a dip down to .244 in 54 games when he reached the Pacific Coast League. As talented a hitter as he is, expect him to adjust. Another concern is that his strikeout rate is about 25% (in AAA). Not too good (but better then Texas' current 1B, Chris Davis). Again, he needs some adjustments. If/when he adjusts, it will be hard for the Rangers to not bring him up - but they just don't have a spot for him yet. However, unless Davis improves, Smoak may overtake him as soon as this year.

Pedro Alvarez, 3B, Pittsburgh Pirates - Alvarez is all about power. It is easy to see him as a 40 HR guy. It was much easier to see that before last year. His fast track to the majors took a major detour to the tune of a .234 AVG. Not sure why he struggled so much, but assuming he turns it around in the minors this year, he could be huge in 2011. At 23, it's also not far fetched to see him contribute this year, but not likely until after the All-Star break, and even then not likely as an everyday player. With all that said, the potential of Alvarez commands our attention.

Madison Bumgarner, SP, San Francisco Giants - Of the three guys mentioned in this article, Bumgarner has the best chance to play the most in the majors. He is a left handed pitcher who throws in the low 90's (he's been clocked above 95, but did not show that kind of velocity for much of the year). He got a taste of the bigs last year with a spot start and faired well (but one start is not much to gauge). He has a chance to make the rotation, but he will have a serious innings limit (he is only 20 years old). My guess is that they will wait to bring him up and use him for a late fall push (or at least to get his feet wet for 2011). How good is he? In the last two years (AA and A+), he has an ERA of 1.65 and strikes out almost a batter an inning (8.4 per nine). You have to imagine that those numbers will not be that good against big league hitting, but the potential for success is there. Depending where he ends up when camp breaks, he may just be a guy to keep an eye on, or he may be worth a late round flier.

-Scout Monkey

( scout_monkey@gmx.com)

Harvesting the Farm - Part 2

The prospects growing in the farm systems are a must know for your fantasy team. Not all will make the majors, and some that do will not produce well - that said, some will be the next stars.

In part one of 'Harvesting the Farm' I brought your attention to the top of the top of prospects, Stephen Strasburg, Aroldis Chapman, and Jason Heyward. The next three are still highly touted and nearly guaranteed to play this year.

Neftali Feliz, SP/RP, Texas Rangers - A young right hander who throws some serious heat (in the area of 98 MPH). The Rangers could always hit, but now are adding some good young pitching to the mix. Feliz has already pitched well in the big leagues, albeit in the bullpen (31 innings, 39 Ks, 1.74 ERA). Texas would like him to be a starter, but hasn't made any final decisions. He could be a great starter, an excellent late innings guy, or even a closer this year. He is worth a mid to late draft pick as long as he is a starter or a closer.

Alcides Escobar, SS, Milwakee Brewers - Not every prospect is going to hit like Pujols, but that doesn't mean they can't help your team, even significantly. Escobar falls into that category. He is a speedy hitter with excellent defense. His defense will keep him as a starter for the Brewers, but his bat is where he needs to show he can be their new leadoff guy. If all things go to plan, count on a .280 hitter, 40 SB, and around 80 runs - there is so much potential for more SBs and runs with his speed. If you miss out on the top tier SS in your draft, Escobar should be available in the later rounds.

Austin Jackson, OF, Detroit Tigers - The corner stone in the Curtis Granderson trade, Jackson's time is now. He has been the top prospect for the Yankees for awhile, and now he is going to actually start for Detroit (what Yankee fans were hoping the Yanks would do for much of last year). With his speed and what he has shown as a contact hitter, the initial plan is for him to be their leadoff man. However, his bat has not been as consistent as one would like. He really seems to be a streaky hitter so far. If he is able to show a little more consistency he will deliver in a big way. If he increases his power some, he could be a super-star. The ceiling is high on Jackson and is definitely worth a late round pick.

-Scout Monkey

( scout_monkey@gmx.com)

Harvesting the Farm - Part 1

I could tell you that Hanley Ramirez should be drafted very high, Albert Pujols is arguably the best hitter in baseball, and Tim Lincecum is a monster pitcher, but you know all of that. I would like to help you out on more of the up-and-comers. The farm systems are ripe for picking.

Part 1 of this 3 part series is about the top prospects. May not be too many surprises here, but these are names you must know (and will know, for better or worse) by the end of the season.

Stephen Strasburg, SP, Washington Nationals - One of the most super hyped pitchers I can remember. The guy can throw 100+ MPH and had an amazing strikeout rate in college. When he plays in the majors and how well against big league hitting is yet to be seen, but the potential is there. Downside of Strasburg is that he could be a serious injury risk. Barring injury, he will be in the majors before year end, and I wouldn't be very surprised to see him on the opening day roster.

Aroldis Chapman, SP, Cincinnati Reds - After Strasburg, Chapman was the leader in hype. A young lefty that can throw 100+. Visions of the next Randy Johnson danced in teams heads. Again, when he will show up in the majors and how well he will do is unknown. Good thing about Chapman is that he is said to throw an 'easy' fastball, meaning that he is less of an injury risk. I give Chapman an outside shot at making the opening day roster, but see him as a late call up.

Jason Heyward, OF, Atlanta Braves - Generally considered the best non-pitching prospect, Heyward could contribute right away. My favorite description is that he does everything good, but nothing great. This is not a bad thing, good average, good power, good speed, good defense - this adds up to making an immediate impact. However, he is only 20 and does not have a guaranteed spot in the OF. He will battle in spring for one, and even if he makes the team he could share time as the Braves have some good options. If he gets full time play, he could be a solid player on your team, if he gets part time play, he might be nice off the bench, but would be more of a keeper prospect for 2011.

-Scout Monkey

( scout_monkey@gmx.com)

Welcome 2010!

Hello all and welcome to spring! Baseball is around the corner and it's now time to start thinking about your draft and/or the up and comers who you should know about in your keeper league. I'm here to help you along. I'm the Scout Monkey.

Question: Why listen to your advice?

Answer: I do lots of research.

Question: Is that the only reason to listen to your advice?

Answer: No, but that is the best. I do the research so you do not have to. Read enough articles about a guy and you start to get a nice impression of what to expect. Couple that with being a baseball fan for 30+ years, and I usually come up with some solid stuff.

Question: How was your advice last year?

Answer: Much more good then bad (Nobody's perfect).

Good Advice: J.A. Happ, Jordan Zimmerman (prior to injury), Joba expectations (and Sell High advice), Kendry Morales, Cliff Lee (pleaded with people to not trade him after his bad start to the season), Shin-Soo Choo. - To name a few.

Bad Advice: Daniel Murphy (way off), Kris Medlen (AAAA pitcher I guess), Derek Holland (wasn't a bust, but I had higher expectations), Mets (pretty much anything with them).

Clearly I'm not perfect, I'm certainly not psychic, but I can throw down some decent knowledge to keep you informed.

Question: How about some advice now?

Answer: Keep an eye on the Cardinals 5th rotation spot. The two prime candidates are Kyle McClellan and Jaime Garcia. McClellan has more experience and has pitched very well in relief. His four pitches can keep hitters guessing even after the first time through the lineup. Garcia is younger and has the higher ceiling, but has had only limited time to show his stuff since his return from Tommy John surgery. What Garcia has shown, though, has been very good. Usually you don't focus too much attention on a number 5 starter, but both of these guys can pitch better then the spot they are vying for (not to mention a good offense and a good defense to back them up).

Question: Is this the end of the article?

Answer: Yes.

- Scout Monkey

( scout_monkey@gmx.com)

Dancing in SoCal: Charlie Haeger

Nothing dances like a knuckleball. Tim Wakefield in Boston has had a long effective career with this pitch. Now there is a young knuckleballer in Southern California that is making the pitch known on the left coast.

Charlie Haeger has now had two good starts with the Dodgers. His first start was against St. Louis, where he gave up 5 hits in 7 innings, 3 runs, and 2 Ks - decent numbers against a good team. His 2nd start, against the Cubs, he pitched 7 innings again, 3 hits, and 7 Ks - a great start, albeit against a struggling Cubs team.

Will Haeger carry the knuckleball torch from Wakefield and have a nice long career? Not sure, but he's off to a good start.

The Dodgers have picked up Padilla from the Rangers, presumably as their fifth starter. Padilla wasn't having a great year, so Haeger may just be pitching himself into the rotation.

Charlie Haeger is only worth looking at in deep leagues and NL only leagues. He pitches in a pitcher friendly park with a good offense behind him. If he puts together another good start or two, his value will rise quickly.

-Scout Monkey

( scout_monkey@gmx.com)

Mashing in San Diego: Will Venable

Adrian Gonzolez is the man in San Diego, however, Will Venable is on a tear and deserves a little of the lime light. This 26 year old outfielder has been putting on a show over the last couple of weeks.

In Venable's last 13 games, he has at least 1 RBI in 10 of them (this includes a game that he went 0/1 as a pinch hitter) - that is some nice consistency. In that stretch, he is hitting .325, with 19 RBI's, 5 HR, 9 Runs, and 1 SB. This guy is on fire!

He is owned in less then 10% of leagues. Most of that ownership came within the last week. He should be a decent play for deep leagues - at least until he comes back down to earth. Other formats need to evaluate how their OF is doing (example - now is not the time to keep dead weight - B.J. Upton was just dropped in my AL only league).

-Scout Monkey

( scout_monkey@gmx.com)

Out with the Older, In with the Old

The Phillies have decided what to do with Pedro - he will be a starter. However, to make room, they have sent Jaime Moyer to the bullpen. Yes, in with the old and out with the older.

This is a little surprising as Pedro did some relief work at the WBC, and Moyer is not crazy about coming out of the pen. In any event, it's done. Pedro will start Wednesday against the Cubs.

I've said it before, but it bears repeating - Phillies pitchers are worth more then other pitchers due to the great offense. In addition, Pedro is not just some pitcher, he's Pedro! He has shown that he still has a little in the tank. He probably won't go real deep in games, but should rack up some wins and average to above average strikeouts.

Moyer's value takes a huge nose dive in most formats. Pedro makes an intriguing flier in NL only and deeper formats. He might even help you make a little late season and playoff run.

-Scout Monkey

Hot, Hot, Hot: Rajai Davis

In the last 2 weeks, you would have a hard time finding a better player then Rajai Davis, CF of the Oakland A's. Rollins? Nope. Pujols? Uh-uh. Texeira? Negative. For the last two weeks, you would be better off with Davis (obviously for the season you would take the other guys).

In the last two weeks, 28 year old Davis is hitting .400, 9 runs, 14 RBIs, 5 walks, 7 SB. You won't get power with Davis, he has 0 homeruns, but the rest of what he'll give you is nice.

He will probably end up being a rental for you, but ride this wave. He is owned in less then 10% of leagues (although that number is starting to go up).

-Scout Monkey

Out with the old...

The Red Sox have release future hall of famer John Smoltz. In his place, they have called up Junichi Tazawa.

Tazawa was signed in the off season out of Japan - grabbed before he signed a multi year contract with a Japanese team. He's a 23 old right hander who has been handling the minors extremely well. In double A, he had 9 wins, 2 losses, and a great ERA of 2.57. In triple A, he hasn't won a game, but has lowered his ERA to 2.37.

He has 4 pitches, fastball (low 90's), slider, curve, and a splitter. He has shown good strike out ability with this repertoire.

Boston hasn't said what his role will be for this season. He has been a starter in the minors and Boston wants him as a starter for the long run. We'll find out soon.

As with any young pitcher, you have to tread carefully. Keeper leagues should be grabbing this guy sooner then later. Deep leagues may want to take a flyer. In shallow leagues, let Tazawa show what he can do at the major league level - and let his spot be finalized (Starter or Reliever).

-Scout Monkey

( scout_monkey@gmx.com)

A Yankee Not to Own

The New York Yankees have one of the finest teams that money can buy. There may not be another team in baseball that has more fantasy relevant players. With that said, avoid the newest Yankee like the plague.

The Yanks have just completed a deal for San Diego pitcher Chad Gaudin. His role has not been clearly stated - he might be long relief (which is not too useful in most fantasy leagues), or he is going to take over for the struggling Mitre (this would be my guess).

With an offense like the Yankees have, why would I avoid one of their starting pitchers? Because Gaudin is going to kill your ERA. Simply put, pitching in perhaps the most friendly pitcher park in all of baseball (Petco Field), Gaudin has an ERA of 5.13 - bad, now he is going to what is proving to be one of the worst pitching parks in all of baseball (New Yankee Stadium). Nothing about this looks good. His poor ERA is just going to get worse, much worse.

There is talk of his upside, but until he shows it, let someone else take the gamble. I cannot think of any format where you would want to add this pitcher.

- Scout Monkey

( scout_monkey@gmx.com)

No Bull(pen): J.A. Happ

J.A. Happ owners can breathe a sigh of relief. Happ will be staying in the rotation. With the addition of Pedro Martinez, it looked like Philly might move Happ back to the bullpen (and into fantasy obscurity). But today, the Phillies announced that Happ is staying right where he is. I guess this isn't a surprise with the way Happ has been pitching. How does 6 wins, 2 losses in 14 starts sound? Oh yea, ERA of 2.80. On top of that, he just pitched a complete game shutout. Don't forget, he pitches for the Phillies - an offensive juggernaut that can make any pitcher look a little better (not that Happ needs it). Still, something must change to accommodate Pedro. If not Happ, then what? Latest thoughts are a 6 man rotation, Pedro to the pen, perhaps even Moyer to the Pen. Whatever the case, Happ is safe. Happ is owned in less then half of fantasy leagues. He may not be a top tier pitcher yet, but he's up there. All formats need to consider him (except AL only of course). -Scout Monkey

( scout_monkey@gmx.com)

Strike Three Please

If you need some strikeouts, there is probably no one available in your league who will get you more then Gio Gonzalez. If you throw out one very bad game against the Twins, Gio has struck out 29 batters in 23+ innings. More then a batter an inning is pretty good for someone on the free agent pile. In addition, he may help with your ERA too if he keeps up his recent good starts. If the guy is this good, why is he available? One, he plays for the Oakland A's. He won't get too many wins with that offense. Second, when he is bad, he is really bad. Against the Twins, he gave up 11 runs in 2.2 innings. Since that game however, he has pitched 3 solid games - against the Yankees, the Red Sox, and most recently against Texas. I guess no really good teams were available to pitch against (kidding of course, could you have a tougher stretch???). He is available in most leagues and should be considered in deep leagues and maybe in AL only leagues - if you need strike outs. -Scout Monkey

( scout_monkey@gmx.com)

Yes Yusmeiro Petit

7 innings of no hit ball. 3 Ks and 3 BBs (however, there was a very bad call that should have been strike 3 and ended up being ball 4 - so 4 Ks and 2 BB in my book). That is how Yusmeiro Petit (pronounced peh-teet) started his night against the Pirates. He finally gave up a single in the 8th. Now the Pirates are not exactly the best offensive team, especially with the fire sale they just went through. Still, you have a major league team that Petit shut down for 7 innings. It must be respected. His previous start was 6 shutout innings against the Phillies (yea, they are arguably the best offensive team). These are two big time displays by the Arizona pitcher. Petit is a 24 year old righthander that is showing he can pitch at the big league level. He must know how to pitch with a fastball that barely sniffs 90 on the radar gun. He pitches smart. Downside? He's a fly ball pitcher who can give up some long balls. But at 24 years old, he has room for improvement. He's hardly owned in any league, but should start being picked up in deeper leagues. -Scout Monkey

( scout_monkey@gmx.com)

If Only We Listened: Randy Wells

Way back in early June Scout Hoffman told us about a rookie pitcher for the Cubs by the name of Randy Wells. If you payed attention and picked him up, you made a very wise move! Here we are, some 2 months after that article and what has Wells done? How about 8 wins in his last 9 starts? Wow! There is more... 2.85 ERA. Sparkling! His K/BB ratio is 3:1 - although he is not a strikeout artist (I would consider him average). Wins, a good ERA, decent Ks, low walks, what more do you want? His ownership in leagues is growing everyday, so unless you have top pitching on your fantasy team, go get Randy Wells now! -Scout Monkey

( scout_monkey@gmx.com)

Rent-a-Vet: Cristian Guzman

Cristian Guzman, SS for the Nationals, is on a nice 9 game hitting streak. What makes this even more impressive is that in 7 of those 9 games, he has 2 or more hits. He has 10 RBIs, 11 runs, and 1 HR during this stretch. For the season he is hitting a very nice .305. Guzman will help you with average and runs, and that's about it. The 10 RBIs he just accumulated is a pace that is a little over his head. He has never been a big steals guy, and this season is no different, except maybe he is on pace for the lowest steals he has had in a single season. If you need a solid hitter, Guzman is worth a look, especially if you can catch the tail end of this wave he is on. He is owned in about 1/3 of leagues, so he is not a completely unknown or overlooked player, but for many of you, he should be available. -Scout Monkey

( scout_monkey@gmx.com)

Prospect Watch: Rick VandenHurk

Last night Rick VandenHurk, 24 year old, 6'5" righty for the Marlins, struck out 9 in 6 innings. Umm, who? Rick VandenHurk. He is a rookie pitcher that was called up in mid-July and has pitched very well in his 3 starts. In those starts, he is 1-0, 17 innings pitched, 2.65 ERA, 16 Ks, and 6 walks. Impressive. The Marlins are a solid, if not good, team. They haven't scored much for VandenHurk which accounts for him having only 1 win despite his low ERA. One would have to assume that he will get the run support he needs to pick up a few more wins (Hanley Ramirez alone should be enough!). A young pitcher on a solid team - worth a flyer if you are able to gamble a little. Shallow leagues should just watch him - maybe he will turn out to be an 'out of nowhere' kind a guy (no one truly knows who will be the next big thing). Deeper leagues have to pay attention to him as 3 good starts can't just be chalked up to a fluke (neither can 9 strikeouts in 6 innings). He is owned in less then 1% of leagues. -Scout Monkey

( scout_monkey@gmx.com)

Radar Watch: Tim Hudson

Before getting injured, Tim Hudson was a stud pitcher. He had Tommy John surgery on July 22, 2008 and has been recovering well. Hudson is pitching in the minors and hasn't given up a run in his two games (6 innings total) so far. He could be a very nice addition for your stretch run! There is a little uncertainty to be aware of though. He still has to build stamina, which means he will not be called up for at least a few weeks (no timeline has been set by the Braves but it is getting close to a time when they will have to decide). Will he be a starter this year or go to the bullpen? Probably be a starter, but again, nothing has been set. A pitcher of Hudson's caliber that you can grab off of the free agent pile could be a nice late season present. -Scout Monkey

( scout_monkey@gmx.com)

Rent-a-Vet: Ryan Garko

Ryan Garko could very well qualify for much more then a rental. He has a good bat. In Cleveland, he had to fight for playing time, this hurt his fantasy value. Now that he has been traded to San Fran, he will be an everyday player. For the season he is batting .285, 11 HR, 39 RBIs, and .362 OBP. This was accomplished in about 240 ABs, league average is closer to 350. Garko is a solid player and might make a difference on your team. 1B is a position you want a strong showing from, Garko is not a Pujols, Gonzalez, Cabrera, but he will give you solid numbers. If you have been struggling in a deep league with a sub-par 1B, take a chance on Garko. Now that he will be getting regular playing time, he could also make for a good person to stick in a UTIL spot of IF spot if your league has this. -Scout Monkey

( scout_monkey@gmx.com)

More Pitching Help: David Hernandez

4 starts, 2 wins, no losses, 7 earned runs, 11 strikeouts - solid. Not the best line ever, especially with the low amount of strikeouts, but 7 runs in 25+ innings is great. The above line is for Baltimore Pitcher, 24 year old right hander, David Hernandez. His bad outings have not been too bad (never given up more then 5 runs - and that was only once). His other outings are good and even great. 6 starts in a row now with 3 runs given up or less. His last test was against the Red Sox, he gave up only 1 run, 0 walks, 2 strikeouts in 7 innings. I'm sure Baltimore was happy, and the 1% or so who own him in fantasy are also happy. Keeper leagues always want to watch a promising young pitcher - David Hernandez qualifies. Shallow leagues will want to see if he keeps up the solid work - even then he may not be good enough to trump other established pitchers. Deep leagues could do much worse. -Scout Monkey

( scout_monkey@gmx.com)

Pitching Help: Clayton Richard

I've been on the Richard bandwagon and off of it. I think I'm about to buy another ticket to get back on. Clayton Richard has given me some good games, he also given me some horrible ones. However, he is available in most leagues and has now strung together two excellent starts. How is 16 innings, a 1.13 ERA, 10 strikeouts, and only 4 walks. Not bad at all, in fact, it's downright good! If you take him, you will likely have to take the bad with the good. My personal hope is that it will be a lot more good then bad. He has shown that he can pitch very well in the majors, so hopefully the bad games can be chalked up to 'learning experiences' for the young lefty. Shallow leagues can probably ignore him except for a spot start in a favorable match-up, the rest should decide if they can take a few rough games if they get some gems like he has been pitching lately. -Scout Monkey

( scout_monkey@gmx.com)

Rent-a-Vet: Luis Castillo

We are in the second half and things start to get serious in fantasy leagues. People start to pay more attention as we get closer to the wire. Every point or stat you can get (depending on type of league you are in) is crucial. 2nd base has not been a deep position for a couple of years, so likely you need help. Well, here it is, Luis Castillo. He's older, he plays for a bad team, but he is putting up great numbers. In the last 2 weeks he has been hitting .459 with 12 runs, 6 RBIs, 5 walks, 1 SB, and only 1 strikeout. You want that line on your team. For the year he has been a great surprise, batting near .300. If the Mets weren't on the DL, they would have been a great opponent for the Phillies. So unless you have Pedroia, Utley, or a choice few others, seriously consider Castillo in all formats. -Scout Monkey

( scout_monkey@gmx.com)

Sell High: Joba Chamberlain

Pull the trigger on selling Joba right now. Don't keep reading, go put him on the market. His value is as high as it has been since before the season began, get rid of him. Why? Innings limit. Joba is on an innings limit of about 150. He has already pitched over 100. This means one of two things - 1) Yankees will skip starts with him 2) Yankees will move him to the bullpen. Either way, he will lose a lot of value once this becomes apparent. Send him packing to an unsuspecting rival. He is not considered a top tier pitcher (Santana, CC, etc.), but he should be considered as a borderline second tier pitcher. He has had two very good outings in a row, so you might get a little extra in a trade. You should have stopped reading by now, but if you haven't, please stop and go trade Joba. -Scout Monkey

( scout_monkey@gmx.com)

Prospect Watch: Mat Latos

Sunday marks the big league debut of the San Diego prospect Matt Latos. The 21 years old, 6'6" righty is looking to be a promising big league pitcher. With a fastball that tops around 97, a curve, a knuckle curve, and a change up, he has a good mix to cause a lot of trouble for opposing batters. Must be nice to be coming to one of the most pitcher friendly parks in all of baseball. Not so nice to have that offense to back up his starts. In AA Latos is 5-1 with a 1.91 ERA in nine starts. He has 46 strikeouts in 47 innings. Opponents are only hitting .192 against him. Down side? Young, inexperienced, concerns about mental toughness (he has done much to improve this view of him), and stamina - he has not thrown 100 innings in any year. He's worth a flyer in deeper leagues and NL only leagues. Keeper leagues should keep a close watch. -Scout Monkey

( scout_monkey@gmx.com)

Temporary Pickup: Garrett Jones

The Pirates seem to have a knack for developing outfielders. The latest one on the scene is contributing in a big way! Garrett Jones. Jones has hit 5 home runs in his last 4 games. He has hit safely in his last 9 games. He also has a few stolen bases to add to his line. He is the perfect rental candidate for your team. He will not keep this up for the rest of the year, but he might keep it up for another week or two. If you have the need or the space for a rental, grab Jones now (owned in about 5% of leagues - most of that coming in the last day or two). -Scout Monkey

( scout_monkey@gmx.com)

I'm Back! I'm Pedro!

Being recognized by just your first name in sports is pretty cool. Michael, Tiger, Kobe, LeBron, Bo, Magic (close enough), Larry, Manny, to name a few. Pedro Martinez makes the list. In his prime, he is probably my most favorite pitcher to watch (I see a lot of him in Lincecum). Pedro, however, is 37 years old and definitively past his prime. He has injury issues, velocity issues, weight issues (today someone commented that he looked like he was 'stuck in a vat of cheese and had to eat his way out'). But come on, he's Pedro! Despite the negatives, he is still a brilliant pitcher - not that he's the smartest guy (maybe he is, maybe he isn't, we're not friends) - he is baseball smart. His 'A' stuff is long gone, but with his smarts and his 'B' stuff, he still can be pretty nasty. Clearly I'm a little biased, but I would take a flier on him in deeper leagues or NL only leagues (in fact, I did). He moves up a spot as he will be pitching for the Phillies, with a good defense behind him and a top notch offense. He won't go deep in too many games, he may not stay injury free for the second half, he won't strike out hit 1+ batter an inning (his heyday was AWESOME), but he could prove good enough to make a difference on your team in the second half. Maybe he'll make your team so good that your friends will start referring to you by your first name! -Scout Monkey

( scout_monkey@gmx.com)

This Year's Cliff Lee?

Last year Cliff Lee came out of nowhere to be one of the best pitchers in baseball. There were no signs that he could do what he did (and is still doing). That was last year, this year I will give that 'Cliff Lee Out of Nowhere Award' to Chad Gaudin of the San Diego Padres. Nothing in his past would say that he would be a good pitcher. I have always though of him as average - you know, that one time I though of him. He went undrafted in most leagues but is now starting to be picked up off the waiver wire. In his last 3 starts, he has struck out 28 in 21 innings while only giving up 5 runs (and 5 walks). That is Cy Young caliber stuff. In fairness, it has to be mentioned that two of those games were against Seattle, but one of them was against Texas. Now, up to three weeks ago, he was fairly bad - he had a couple of good outings, but nothing to point at his current success. The question now is, will he keep it up? Don't know. I hope so as I picked him up in my deep league. In my shallow league, I will pounce if he has one more good outing. I bet you wish you had picked up Cliff Lee last year - maybe you can this year. Keep an eye on Chad Gaudin. -Scout Monkey

( scout_monkey@gmx.com)

Ride the Wave

By this time of year, all the really good players are gone. By this time of year, most of the unknowns/sleepers have shown what to expect from them for the rest of the year. By this time of year, the waiver pile is looking fairly slim. Does this mean that your fantasy baseball life has come to a stagnant finish? No! Of course there are always trades that can be made, but my focus here is on the 'hot' player. How do you get Johan Santana numbers without getting Johan Santana? You ride the wave of a 'hot' pitcher. How do you get Hanley Ramirez numbers without having Hanley Ramirez? You guessed it, ride the wave of a 'hot' batter. Unless your team is rock solid (congrats if it is) you probably have a position that you can be flexible with. Maybe you have two top outfielders but your third one is nobody special, perhaps your infield has a weakness, or, like most teams, you have holes in your rotation. This is the position that riding the wave can help you. Why hold on to an average player when you can get an average player who is on a hot streak? There is no reason. Grab a guy who is performing higher then he should and ride the wave of good performance until it starts to break and then hop on another wave. The downside of this strategy is minimal. With batters, there are no issues - you are replacing an average player with an average player, the worst that will happen is average numbers. No loss there. Where this strategy can hurt you is with pitching. When an average pitcher is on a streak, you can get some great stats from him, but when that streak ends, it could be bad. Maybe the wave will fizzle out slowly, or maybe it will crash hard. For example, if you had picked up Dontrelle Willis after he had an excellent start, that wave ended quickly and he put up awful, awful numbers - that one probably hurt you. Here's a few of guys who are hot right now, consider riding their wave: Luis Valbuena (2B, SS - Indians) in the last one week he is hitting .434, 4 runs, 3 HRs, 7 RBIs, 2 BB (Wow!) Juan Rivera (OF - Angels) in the last two weeks, he is hitting .333, 8 runs, 4 HRs, 12 RBIs, 5 BB (Good stuff!) Scott Podsednik (OF - White Sox) in the last two weeks he is hitting .363, 8 runs, 2 HRs, 7 RBIs, 6 BB, 3 SB Aaron Cook (SP - Rockies) In his last 4 starts he has 4 wins, an ERA of just under 2.00, 18 Ks, and only 5 BB (Been a good ride so far...) In a week or two, this list should look a lot different. Riding the wave is transitory solution. You generally will not keep the guy for more then a couple of weeks. So if you have a need, find the hot player and ride his wave. Hang 10 into the playoffs. -Scout Monkey

( scout_monkey@gmx.com)

Watch Your Mouth: Bastardo

You have to love a name that sounds like you are swearing but is perfectly legitimate to say. Bastardo. Oh yea. Besides having a great name, this young pitcher is holding his own in the majors. Scout Hoffman brought our attention to him after his first start, and Bastardo has warranted continued attention. Bastardo has had 4 starts in the majors and 3 of the 4 have been solid. He had one bad start against Boston in a strange rain effected game - outside of that, he's been strong. He had a great game against San Diego (not saying too much there), but followed that up with a good game against the Dodgers (yea, that's something you can hang your hat on). Next was the Boston start, nothing good to say about this, maybe the rain spooked him. His latest start was against Baltimore. He got the loss in this one but pitched well - 7 innings, 4 runs, 5 hits, 5 strike outs. Normally I wouldn't recommend someone like this except for deep leagues only, but you have to factor in that he is pitching for the Phillies. The Phillies are one of the best in the baseball assuring that Bastardo will at least get some wins. I believe his four starts allow him to be considered in medium depth leagues and even shallow NL only leagues. Keep in mind, Bastardo has been this effective throwing mainly fastballs. If he gets more confidence in his secondary pitches, he could be real trouble for the NL East. Lastly, don't you want a guy named Bastardo on your team? Watch your mouth. -Scout Monkey

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Time to Sign: John Smoltz

John Smoltz is now recovered from his shoulder surgery and will be called up to the majors anytime now. Time to check your waiver wire and see if anyone has grabbed him yet. He's owned in about 20% of ESPN leagues and closer to 50% in Yahoo (are people in Yahoo smarter?). There is not a lot to say about Smoltz that hasn't been said over his great career. He simply knows how to pitch. He is not the same pitcher as he was when younger but he makes up for his slight drop in velocity with his location, movement, and smarts. Do not let his age (42) fool you, he is still good and can strike out batters at an above average clip. His minor league rehab starts have been solid. In his last two starts he only gave up a total of 5 runs (4 in one game, 1 in the other). There is enough pitching this year that shallow leagues may want to view him as a spot starter. In all other leagues, you probably want him on your team. Don't forget, not only is he good, he plays for one of the best teams in baseball. It is definitely time to sign Smoltz to your team. -Scout Monkey

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Rent-a-Vet: Jose Contreras

The 37 year old (officially) righty is showing some good stuff lately. Last two starts were both 8 innings, with a total of 3 hits, 3 walks, 11 Ks, and no earned runs. How can a guy who put up those kind of numbers be owned in about 1% of leagues? Because Contreras is unpredictable (that's being kind). There is no pitcher in baseball that I can think of that can match Contreras' unpredictableness. When 'on,' his stuff is top, but him being 'on' happens with no rhyme or reason. It is for this reason that he is owned so sparsely, and why I recommend him only as a rental. There is potential that he can keep it together for the rest of the season and then you will have an excellent starter. I predict he will continue to do what he always has done, be up and down. Shallow leagues, don't even look. Deep leagues, consider him and be ready for the good and bad. -Scout Monkey

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Strasburg Strategy

If you have paid even a little attention to baseball you have probably heard of the super-stud pitcher out of San Diego State, Stephen Strasburg. Labeled as a 'once in a decade prospect', 'once in a lifetime prospect', 'best pitching prospect ever' - it's hard to ignore the guy. I'm not here to tell you how great he has been in college, rest assured that he has been as good as can be. I'm not here to tell you that the guy may end up throwing the fastest pitch ever in a baseball game (he's really close). I'm here to tell you what to do with the guy with regards to your fantasy team. First off, something needs to be mentioned. In my opinion, this hasn't gotten the attention that it should. Strasburg's pitching mechanics are almost identical to the pitching mechanics of one Marc Prior. Does that scare you? It should. Maybe Strasburg will not have the injuries that Prior did/does, or maybe he will. Bad mechanics are bad mechanics. This is a must know item as it can effect your Strasburg Strategy. One other thing of note, it is not known if Strasburg will pitch in the majors this year. Many say he is good enough to start right now, but, some in Washington say that they would not do that to any rookie. Another Strasburg question mark to consider. Unless the other owners in your fantasy league are asleep, you will probably need to grab Strasburg off waivers to get him. Hopefully, you have a high waiver priority. But, if he could be the next Marc Prior, or not even start this year, should you burn your waiver priority to get him? The answer is 'Yes' - especially in a keeper league. You see, you are in the same position as the Washington Nationals (first pick in the draft). You have to pick him up because of his potential. If Washington doesn't draft him, they will be the laughing stock of baseball - how can you not draft one of the best (if not the best) prospects of all time? They have to, no choice. Same for you. If you have the chance to get him, you must. The potential of Strasburg demands it. Now for my Strasburg Strategy. In one of my leagues (a keeper league) I have the first waiver priority and will be getting Strasburg. I am seriously considering trading him. The hype on Strasburg is so high that I just may be able to get a top tier player, a player who is proven and healthy. I figure it is a win/win situation. I either trade Strasburg for a great player, or no one bites on the offers and I keep a potential top pitcher. Remember, just because you have to draft him, you don't have to keep him. I'm pulling for Strasburg. I hope he goes on to be the next Randy Johnson. But I will not ignore the potential for him being the next Marc Prior. June 8th is draft day, check your league regularly for his availability (he is already available in CBS). -Scout Monkey

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Hot in SoCal: Juan Rivera

Juan Rivera is heating up in Los Angeles. The Angel's outfielder has really put together a nice string of games at the plate. In his last 9 games, he is hitting .428 (15/35), 3 HR, 7 RBIs, and 5 Runs. Considering how well he is hitting, the 7 RBIs and 5 Runs seem very low for that kind of AVG. Rivera showed glimpses of his hitting potential throughout last year but never did it consistently. Right now he seems to be more of a streaky hitter then a guy who is turning the corner to become a premier outfielder. If he was younger, I would say grab him now and reap the hitting rewards, but at 30 years old, he is not likely going to blossom into greatness. If you need some OF help, Juan Rivera is one of the hottest right now. He's worth a rent in most formats (if you have a spot for him - don't drop a lot of value to get him). In deep leagues, he has the potential to be one of those mid-season sleepers that might just put you over the top. -Scout Monkey

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Rent-a-Vet: Gary Sheffield

I hesitate a little to call Sheffield a rental player as he is good enough to make a lot of fantasy lineups. Hard to ignore his age though, not too many 40 year olds make a push for MVP. So far, in his 87 ABs, he has hit .299, 5 HR, and 19 RBIs. Starting to look like the Sheffield of old, the one that Detroit was hoping for when they picked him up. Too bad for the Tigers, good for the Mets - in fact, great for the Mets as they would be in serious trouble without him right now. Sheffield has a long track record of being great, when healthy. So far he looks healthy and he says he's feeling healthy. His spot in the lineup isn't guaranteed as the Mets will have a lot of options when their team heals a bit, but he will be hard to bench if he keeps his number up. I believe he's worth a chance in most formats - at least for a rental and very possibly for more. -Scout Monkey

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The Yankee Test: Derek Holland

Derek Holland's first start of his career was very average. Against the Astros, he went 5.2 innings, gave up 5 hits, 3 earned runs (off of a 3 run homer), had 5 strikeouts, and walked none. Not bad but not great for this Texas prospect. He left with the lead, but didn't get the win as the bullpen coughed it up. Holland is/was the top pitching prospect for Texas (yes, even over Feliz) and has his second career start on Wednesday against the Yanks. This will be a tough assignment. The Yankee test should give us a decent look at what this guy can do - will he implode under the pressure, step up his game, or be average again. We'll see. Padilla is set to return in about a week, which may mean that Holland goes back to the pen, but GM Joe Daniels said, "Let's see how these guys pitch and then we'll decide," - Being that they want Holland to be a starter and had planned all along for him to be starting, his spot in the rotation may be long lasting (Harrison, failing the Yankee test, by getting lit up doesn't hurt Holland's chances either). All prospects should be watched very closely. Some of these prospects will fail, some will be the next Santana (Johan), and some will fall into the 'journey man' category. We should have a little clearer picture of the potential of Holland after Wednesday. Deep leagues may want to give him a seat on their bench (hard to recommend starting any pitcher against the Yanks) and hope for a breakout. The rest of you, watch and wait. -Scout Monkey

( scout_monkey@gmx.com)