Texas 1B Chris Davis went 2-4 with a walk, a run scored, and 0 strikeouts in his first MLB action since being recalled from the minors.
Davis, a pre-season break out candidate, struggled mightily during the season and was sent to the minors in early July to rediscover his hitting stroke.
While playing for AAA Oklahoma City, Davis did just that hitting .329/.418/.521 with 6 HR and a 39:25 K:BB ratio in 166 AB's.
Davis (34% owned in Yahoo Leagues) will see regular at bats at 1B, as he takes over for the struggling Hank Blalock (hitting just .180/.207/.334 in August).
Of course, strikeouts are the biggest problem when it comes to Davis. If he can limit the K's, he could be a nice source of power down the stretch, and is worth adding.
Baltimore pitching prospect Brian Matusz is expected to be called up to make his first major league start on Tuesday against Detroit.
Matusz is starting in place of the injured Bradley Bergersen, who went on the D.L. on July 31st with a left leg contusion.
Matusz, 22, was rated 25th on Baseball America's Top 100 prospects of 2009. The big lefty split time this season between single A and double A before being called up.
While at AA Bowie, he dominated, posting a 7-0 record, 1.55 ERA, 0.88 WHIP and 45:10 K:BB ratio in 45 1/3 innings.
Long term, Matusz projects as a top of the rotation starter, but he has the potential to post solid ERA, WHIP and K totals right away.
In most mixed leagues, Matusz is a player to watch, but a great debut will make him a hot commodity. If you have the roster space, Matusz's upside makes him worthy of a speculative add. If you're in a keeper league, and Matusz isn't owned, stop reading and go grab him immediately!
Prospect Watch: Mets' Prospect Martinez Gets the Call
OF Fernando Martinez, the top prospect in the Mets farm system was called up Tuesday. Martinez will take the spot of Ryan Church, who went on the disabled list with a right hamstring strain.
Mets General Manager Omar Minaya said that Martinez would not be called up unless he would see regular at bats, so expect Martinez be inserted into the lower part of the Mets line-up immediately.
Martinez, 20 years old, started 2009 at AAA, and hit quite well. Before being called up, Martinez was hitting .294-.341-.544 with 7 HR and 28 RBI in 160 at bats for AAA Buffalo.
In 2008, Martinez was the youngest player in AA baseball (he was 19), and more than held his own. He hit .287-.340-432 with 8 HR, 43 RBI, 48 runs scored in 352 at bats. Baseball America ranked him the 30th best prospect in all of baseball in their “2009 Top 100 Prospects” rankings.
Martinez is still very young, and may struggle while adjusting to major league pitching. However, he is going to see consistent at bats, so he has the opportunity to be a useful fantasy player immediately.
In standard leagues 10 teams or smaller, Martinez is worth simply watching for now. In leagues 12 teams or larger, Martinez is worth a speculative add. If by some chance he’s still available in a keeper league, he’s definitely someone to grab immediately.
SP Ross Ohlendorf (2% owned) Ross Ohlendorf picked up his second win of the season for the Pirates on Sunday, going 7 innings, giving up three runs, walking 3 and striking out 2. He's now 2-2 on the season with a 3.24 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP. Ohlendorf, a former Yankee’s farmhand, came to Pittsburgh last year in the Xavier Nady trade. Ohlendorf struggled in 2008, but reportedly improved his mechanics during the off season and developed a change up. So far, the off season work seems to have helped: Ohlendorf has racked up quality starts in 3 of his 4 outings in 2009 (the other was a 5 inning 4ER loss to Houston). He doesn’t strike many batters out (4.0 K/9), and his win total will be limited by playing in Pittsburgh, but Ohlendorf could have some value as a back of the rotation starter. He’s someone to watch in shallow leagues, but worth a speculative add in deep mixed leagues.
Zack Duke has gotten off to a fantastic start for the Pirates in 2009. He’s won both of his first two starts, most recently pitching a complete game shut out against Houston. As a result, Duke has been one of the hottest pick-ups in Fantasy Leagues in the past few days.
Duke, 25, was once a highly regarded prospect in the Pirates system, but he’s struggled so far in the major leagues. In 2008, Duke was 5-14 with a 4.82 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP in 185 innings. So how has Duke been so successful this season? Through 2 starts, Duke has a .59 ERA, a .85 WHIP, and opponents are hitting just .172 against him. However, that early season success will be short lived. Duke has been extremely lucky with a .208 Batting Average on Balls in Play-a rate well off his career norm of .327.
So what does this mean? Eventually those balls in play will turn into hits, not outs, and Duke will struggle. Duke is still young enough to show improvement this year, so he's worth a speculative add. Just don’t expect him to be this year’s Cliff Lee.
One of the pieces baseball analysts love to use this time of year is the crazy projection: 'If he can keep this pace up, he'll finish the season with 486 steals!' Of course no one believes that players will reach such lofty totals, but crazy projections do help to point out players that are off to scorching starts. You won't find any crazy projections here, but you will find 5 hitters that could turn scorching starts into very solid seasons.
1B/3B/OF/AND Soon to be 2B Mark Teahen, Kansas City Royals (owned in 17% of Yahoo Leagues) In a bit of surprise move, the Royals had Mark Teahan work on his defense at second base during spring training. While that is still very much a work in progress, Teahen hit well enough to win the 2B job for the Royals. Teahen started at second in the opener and, as long as he hits, he'll continue to log time there. Depending on your league's rules, Teahen could soon be eligible to play 1B, 2B, 3B and OF. With that kind of flexibility, and the way he's been hitting, Teahen could be this year's Mark DeRosa. Grab him now if he's available in your league.
OF Jordan Schafer, OF Atlanta Braves (owned in 24% of Yahoo Leagues) Schafer started to generate some buzz in the last few weeks of spring training, but that buzz has been amplified because of fantastic success to start the season. He hit his second Home Run on Wednesday, so his ownership is likely to climb quickly. Schafer's hit near the bottom of the Braves order to open the season, but could move up to the lead off spot if he continues to play well. Schafer strikes out a lot, but could hit .270 with 15 HR and 15 steals as a rookie. He makes for a solid add in standard leagues, and definite add in keeper leagues.
OF Adam Lind, OF/DH Toronto Blue Jays (owned in 53% of Yahoo Leagues) Lind hit for solid average and some power while traveling between AAA and the majors last year. This year, Lind has a starting job locked up, and should become a solid regular. He started the year hitting 5th for Toronto, and splitting time between LF and DH. Lind does struggles some against left-handers (2008: .254 against lefties, .294 against righties) but could be in line for a nice season: .285 with 15-20 HR and 75+ RBI.
2B Mike Fontenot, Chicago Cubs (owned in 11% of Yahoo Leagues) Fontenot isn't widely known, but was very productive in part time duty last year, hitting .305-.395-.514 with 9 HR and 42 RBI in 243 at bats. With Mark DeRosa gone, Fontenot has the Cubs second base job all to himself. With consistent AB’s, Fontenot could hit 20 Home Runs for the Cubs this season.
C John Baker, Florida Marlins (owned in 5% of Yahoo Leagues) Baker was productive in limited at bats last year .299-.392-.447 in 161 AB’s. Baker has hit as high as second in the Marlins line up. He makes for a great back up catcher, or a nice fill in if you’re dealing with an injury at the catcher spot.
Few things are harder to make sense of than spring training stats. Case in point: last season Cliff Lee posted an Spring era over 8, but went on to win the AL CY Young award. However, some players are able to turn strong spring performances into full time jobs. Here are 5 players that have had great springs, and could be in line for big things in 2009:
1. Jason Motte RP St. Louis Motte has emerged as the most likely candidate to close games for St. Louis this season. He was terrific at AAA Memphis last year, striking out 110 in 66.7 innings. So far this spring, Motte has 4 saves and a 13/1 K:BB ratio. Motte’s ADP in Yahoo leagues is 17.2, but his stock is quickly rising. Look to steal him in the 14th/15th round and enjoy 25-30 saves with great K numbers.
2. Colby Rasmus OF St. Louis- Rasmus is a talented youngster whom many thought could have won a starting job last year. He has played very well so far this spring, sporting an average over .300 with good power. Rasmus looks to be the choice to man either LF or CF for St. Louis this season, making him a nice late round gamble, and a great target in keeper leagues.
3. Jordan Shaffer, OF Atlanta-Like Rasmus, Schaffer battled for a spot in Atlanta's OF as a 21 year old last year. This year his spring averages .396/.429/.585 and terrific defense make it almost certain that he’ll win the job. Schaffer, 22, is best known for for violating the league’s substance abuse policy last season, but with those problems are behind him, he could be in store for big things. Scaffer's a nice late round gamble in mixed leagues, and a definite target in keeper leagues.
4. Trevor Cahill SP Oakland Cahill rocketed through the A’s farm system, dominating 2 different levels. Question marks in Oakland’s starting rotation opened the door for Cahill, and he’s seized the opportunity by pitching well throughout the spring. He’s currently projected as number 4 or 5 starter in Oakland, and is a great late round target in mixed leagues, and keeper leagues alike.
5. Kendry Morales 1B Anaheim Morales has been terrific this spring, posting a .397 average with 3 HR and 8 doubles. He won’t make anyone forget the man he’s replacing (Mark Teixiera) but he's got the first base job locked up. Morales makes for a great late round pick and could put up numbers similar to James Loney or Connor Jackson: .290-15-85.
With many leagues already holding drafts, it’s interesting to see what trends are developing in other leagues. One trend that is apparent: people love Ian Kinsler.
Kinsler’s average draft position in Yahoo Leagues is 13.6, making him a borderline 1st round/early 2nd round pick. It’s really not suprising that so many people are high on Kinsler. He enjoyed a terrific season last year, posting a .317-.375-.517 line, with 18 HR, 76 RBI, 41 doubles, 26 steals, and 102 runs scored in just 518 AB's. Kinsler is a dynamic force on offense, and is even more valuable because he’s a second baseman- a position where that type of productivity is quite rare.
Yet despite his productivity, and position scarcity, Kinsler is a dangerous pick so early. Why? Unfortunately Kinsler can’t stay on the field. Take a look at his games played and missed during his first three seasons:
In 2006 he played a total of 120 games (423 AB's), and missed 37 games due to a Fractured Thumb.
In 2007 he played a total of 130 games (483 AB's), and missed 27 games due to a Stress Fracture in his Foot
In 2008 he played a total of 121 games (518 AB's), and missed 37 games due to a Sports Hernia
As you can see, Kinsler has never played more than 130 games, or topped 520 AB’s in any of his 3 seasons in the majors.
For comparison’s sake, in those three years (2006-2008), Kinsler has played fewer games than J.D. Drew (Kinsler 371, Drew 395). Yes you read that right: Kinsler has played fewer games than the man known in Boston as D.L. Drew.
So what does all this mean? I love Kinsler as a player, but I’m unwilling to use a late 1st/early 2nd round pick to get him. It's difficult for a team to bounce back when it looses an early round pick to injury, and based on his history, Kinsler is a prime candidate to miss significant time this season. Add to it that I feel there are better values at 2nd base later in the draft (Jose Lopez in round 15 for example) and it’s extremely unlikely that Kinsler will show up on any of my fantasy teams.
That being said, it's hard to argue with the type of numbers Kinsler put up last year, not to mention where his numbers would have ended up had he not missed time due to injury.
If you ARE going to draft Kinsler, you need to protect yourself. To do so, you have to treat him like a running back in Fantasy Football, meaning you need a handcuff. For those unfamiliar with the concept, to “handcuff” is when you draft the player you want AND that player’s likely replacement as injury insurance. Based on draft position, the ideal handcuff is the aforementioned Jose Lopez (ADP of 175/ 15th round). Lopez hit .297-17-89 in 2008, and should be a starter in all but the shallowest leagues. However if you can steal him in the 15th round, you’ll be golden if Kinsler gets hurt. If Lopez isn’t available, others like Placido Polanco (ADP 213/18th round) or Orlando Hudson (ADP 223/19th round) are suitable options.
Remember, this is not someone you’ll be playing over Kinsler, just insurance for a Kinsler injury. Unfortunately if Kinsler’s history is any indication, it’s not a matter of if he’ll get injured, but when.
This time of year, it seems like there’s a Home Show every weekend. If you’re never been, Home Shows are great. Hundreds of builders, design experts, manufacturers, and other businesses all descend on one place with the aim of sharing what they know. You’re able to learn about new building techniques, check out the latest design trends, and get fresh ideas for your own projects without doing weeks of research on your own. The best part is that you don’t actually have to spend any money. Instead, you simply walk around the show, collect information, and file it away. Once you've started your project, you'll be able to make decisions about materials, or the cost of a product without any trouble.
So what do Home Shows have to do with Fantasy Baseball? Last Saturday profantasybaseball.com held its annual writer’s draft. Just like with a Home Show, fantasy baseball writers from across the United States gathered (electronically) to draft teams for the writer’s league. Of course, every league is different, but you can use expert drafts like this one to check current trends, evaluate different strategies, and gauge player values. So take a look at the trends from this draft (and others), and then file the information away. While your league mates worry about when to take their first Starting Pitcher, you'll be able to sit back, relax, and draft with confidence.
(For reference, this is a 10 team, 5x5 rotisserie league. Starting Rosters consist of: C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, OF, OF, OF, UT, UT, UT, SP, SP, SP, RP, RP, RP, P, P, P with 8 bench spots)
Hitters went early. Through the first 5 rounds, 43 of the 50 picks were used to draft hitters. Just 6 of 50 picks were pitchers, and just 1 of the first 50 picks was used on a reliever. By the end of the 10th round, pitchers were starting to come off the board, but still, 75 of the first 100 picks were used on hitters.
Top Outfielders were in demand. 20 of the first 50 picks were spent on Outfielders. This league is skewed towards offense, but the trend through the first 5 rounds was take one if not two top Outfielders early. There was still value at every other offensive position through the middle rounds, but by that time, the OF crop had been thinned. Guys like Brad Hawpe (13th Round), Justin Upton (17th round) and Xavier Nady (17th round) were good late values, but the clear trend was to take Outfielders early.
There is a drop off from the top SS and top 3B. 4 3B went in the top 50 (Wright, A-Rod, Longoria, Aramis Ramirez). For those that miss out on the top 4 at 3B, rounds 6-9 offer solid players like Chris Davis, Chipper Jones, Ryan Zimmerman, Aubrey Huff, and Garret Atkins, but mid to late round values were tougher to find. Jorge Cantu (14th round) and Adrian Beltre (16th round) were great values.
Likewise, three SS went in the first 11 picks (Hanley Ramirez 2nd, Reyes 7th, and Rollins 11th) but no SS were taken again until the 6th round. For those that miss out on one of the top short stops, round 6 or 7 was when guys like Alexi Ramirez, Stephen Drew or Rafael Furcal came off the board. Those that waited even longer found guys like J.J. Hardy (Rd. 10) or Jhonny Peralta (Rd. 12). Late round values were tougher to find, though Miguel Tejada (14th round) and Mike Aviles (15th round) were nice values at those spots.
There is good depth at 1B, but don’t wait too long-An elite 1B will still costs a 1st or 2nd round pick, but solid options were available from the 4th round all the way until the 12th round. Joey Votto (9th round), Carlos Pena (10th round) or Connor Jackson (12th) were some of the best examples of mid round value.
You can wait on SP-The top pitchers were still taken early, but solid pitching is available in the mid to late rounds. In fact, in this particular draft you could have waited until round 10 before taking your first starter and still built a solid staff: Chad Billingsley, John Lester, Josh Beckett, and Felix Hernandez all went in the10th, Ervin Santana, Yovani Gallardo, and Cliff Lee in the 11th, Ricky Nolasco and Scott Kazmir the 12th, Carlos Zambrano, Edison Volquez, and Matt Cain in the 13th, Adam Wainwright and Brett Myers in the 14th Scott Baker (16th),Kevin Slowey (18th), and Ted Lilly (19th) all went late as well.
You can wait on RP too, but don’t wait too long- Relievers started to come off the board in round 5, but surprisingly there was no run on Closers. Instead 1 reliever was drafted in every round from round 5 through round 17 (2 relievers went in round 6). Top closers started to come off the board by round 5. By round 15, most of the remaining closers were inexperienced (Frank Francisco) or had question marks (Mike Gonzalez’s health).
So... how did my team turn out? Here are my first 20 picks:
Pick Player Position
7 José Reyes SS
14 Carlos Lee OF
27 Prince Fielder 1B
34 Aramis Ramírez 3B
47 Alexei Ramírez 2B
54 Chris Davis 1B,3B
67 Magglio Ordóñez OF
74 Jermaine Dye OF
87 Roy Oswalt SP
94 Chone Figgins 2B,3B
107 Yovani Gallardo SP
114 Scott Kazmir SP
127 David Price SP
134 Brett Myers SP
147 Johnny Damon OF
154 Scott Baker SP
167 Mike González RP
174 Huston Street RP
187 Ted Lilly SP
194 Bengie Molina C
Best Picks: Reyes at #7, Oswalt at #87
Worst Picks: Figgins at #94 (passed on Brian Fuentes, Ervin Santana)
This team’s offense should be very solid, with a good combination of speed and power, plus each of my hitters should sport a solid batting average.
Pitching could be an issue: Kazmir and Gallardo haven’t been durable, Price is unproven, and Myers was inconsistent last year. If everyone can stay healthy, I’ll be very competitive in K’s, WHIP and ERA.
Relief pitching is my team's weakness. I’ll need to make a trade (or two) or strike gold on the waiver wire.
These guys aren’t known as fantasy studs, but they have the potential to pitch like one. The best part? Most should be available after round 10, meaning you can use early round picks to build your offense and STILL have a solid pitching staff-as long as some of these pitchers make it onto your roster:
Ricky Nolasco-Nolasco was fantastic for the Marlins last year, ending the season 15-8 with a 3.52 ERA, 186K, 42 BB, 1.10 WHIP. His wins may fluctuate (10-4 pre All Star Break, 5-4post All Star Break), but amazing peripherals after the break placed Nolasco among the top pitchers in fantasy baseball ( 95 IP, 3.29 ERA, 98 K’s, 12 BB,0.99 WHIP, .232 opponent’s batting avg.). 25 other pitchers might be taken before his name is called on draft day, but Nolasco has a chance to pitch like a top 10 SP. Expect 14-16 Wins, 3.75 era, 160+ K’s and a WHIP south of 1.20.
Matt Cain-A quick look at Cain’s 15-30 record over the last two years and it’s easy to view him as a young pitcher struggling to find his way. A closer look reveals that Cain is on the verge of a break out. Aside from Wins/Losses, his 2008 numbers were terrific: 21 quality starts, a 3.76 ERA and 186 strike outs in 217 innings. Cain needs to continue to improve his control (91 BB), but with his skills, he could easily win 14+ games this year. Expect 14-16 Wins, a 3.70 era, 170 K’s and a WHIP around 1.30.
Scott Baker-Baker is on the cusp of becoming a household name in fantasy circles, but he’s still someone you’ll be able to grab in the middle rounds of your draft. Despite missing most of May, Baker ended the season with an 11-4 record, 172 IP, 3.43 era, 141 K’s, 43 BB, 1.18 WHIP. Factor in an average month’s stats to make up for the time he missed in May, and Baker would have been close to 15 W’s, a 3.60 era, 160 K’s, and a WHIP around 1.20. Expect that same level production in 2009.
Brett Myers-The last 2 seasons have been tough on Myers. He bounced between the starting rotation and the bull pen in 2007, then returned to the starting rotation and pitched horribly to start 2008 (3-9, 5.84 era). After the All Star break though, Myers found himself. Post Break he was 7-4, 3.08 era, 75 K’s, 21 BB, 1.16 WHIP; much closer to the way Myers pitched from 2005-2007. 14-16 wins, 3.80 era, and 160+ K’s are reasonable expectations for 2009.
5.Ted Lilly-Never flashy, and often overlooked, Lilly is the type of veteran that you don’t appreciate until he’s on your fantasy staff. Since arriving in Chicago in 2007, Lilly has averaged 16 wins, a 3.96 era, 179 K’s, and a 1.18 WHIP. Patience is required on days when the wind is blowing out at Wrigley, but at the end of the year, it will all be worth it. Expect 15 Wins, an era around 4, 160+ K’s, and a WHIP around 1.20.
5 Comebacks that can be had for a discount
Eric Bedard-Coming into last season, Bedard was among the top 5 pitchers in fantasy baseball. However, his season lasted just 81 innings before a shoulder injury shut him down for the season. There was some worry that Bedard had a torn labrum, but that was not the case. Instead, Bedard had off season surgery to remove a cyst from his shoulder and some scar tissue from around his labrum. So far this spring, Bedard has been throwing without pain, and looks like he’ll be ready to contribute at or shortly after the season starts. Keep an eye on his progress, because a healthy Bedard can give you 14-16 Wins, 190+ K’s, an era under 3.5, and a sub 1.2 WHIP.
Aaron Harang-Coming off back to back 16 win 200K seasons, big things were expected of Harang last year. Instead his 2008 season was a disaster. He finished 6-17, 4.78 era in 184 innings. Part of Harang’s struggles can be attributed to shoulder problems that flared up in July. To his credit, Harang tried to pitch through the pain, but ultimately landed on the DL. He showed signs of life after returning from the DL in mid-August, posting a 3.00 era, 25:9 K:BB ratio, and a 1.14 WHIP for the month of September. If he can regain the form he showed from in 2006 and 2007, Harang will be in line for a 15 Win, 180+K season.
John Maine-Maine missed 10 starts in 2008 due to nagging shoulder problems, and then had off season shoulder surgery to remove bone spurs from his throwing shoulder. Maine is not a fantasy ace, and has occasional bouts of wildness, but he can be a very useful fantasy pitcher that should be available in the latter half of most drafts. A return to his 2007 numbers (15-10, 3.91 era, 180 K’s) isn't out of the question, making Maine a nice late round choice.
Josh Johnson-Johnson missed all of 2007 and half of 2008 recovering from Tommy John surgery, but his performance in the second half of 2008 showed that he was all the way back. Johnson went 7-1 with a 3.61 era, 77 K’s, 27 BB in 87.1 innings after the All Star break last year. Still just 25, Johnson could take another step forward and establish himself as a solid SP2. If he’s healthy, a 14 W, sub 3.70 era, 150+ K, 1.30 WHIP season is within reach.
Fausto Carmona-Carmona was a big disappointment in 2008 after a breakout 19 Win season in 2007. A hip injury, coupled with serious control issues, kept Carmona from helping fantasy owners last year. Carmona seems to be over his hip injury, and his control issues may be solved as well. A flaw in his delivery, which contributed to his control problems, was reportedly fixed during the off season. If he’s healthy, 14 Wins, 130 K’s, sub 3.5 era, and 1.35 WHIP are all within reach. If Carmona is still available during the late rounds, he’s worth the gamble.
5 Surprises from the Second Half of ‘08
Randy Johnson-Post All Star Break numbers: 5-3, 2.41 era, 78 K’s, 16 BB, 1.05 WHIP in 86 innings. Johnson was outstanding during the second half of 2008. The concerns are well known: he’s 45, and has a history of back problems. Still, with reports that his back is healthy, and a move to pitcher friendly AT&T park, Johnson could be in line for a nice season.
Ubaldo Jimenez-Post All Star Break numbers: 8-3, 3.68 era, 78 K’s, 42 BB, 1.30 WHIP in 85.2 innings. Jimenez, who just turned 24, struggled in the first half of 2008. He owned a 4-9 record at the break, with poor control. That he managed to finish the year with a 12-12 is a testament to just how well he pitched in the second half of the season. The difference came from improved control. Jimenez cut his walks and increased his strikeouts. He ended the second half sporting an 8.23 K/9 ratio, and struck out better than a batter per inning in September with 35 K’s in 31 innings.
Paul Maholm- Post All Star Break numbers: 3-4, 3.40 era, 64 K’s, 31 BB, 1.28 WHIP in 87.1 innings. Maholm’s record after the break won’t get anyone excited but consider this: From August 1st through the end of the season, Maholm went at least 6 innings in 9 of 10 starts (the other he went 5.1), and held opponents to less than 3 runs in 8 of those 10 starts. Playing for Pittsburgh means wins could be tough to come by, but Maholm could take another step forward and become a very useful fantasy pitcher this season.
Jorge De La Rosa-Post All Star Break numbers: 7-3, 3.08 era, 68 K’s 38 BB, 1.33 WHIP, in 73 innings. De La Rosa was traded to Colorado at the end of April in a deal that few paid any attention to and his 7.26 era before the All Star Break showed why. But something strange after the All Star Break. De La Rosa got a shot in the Colorado rotation, his command improved, and he started winning. The biggest difference? Opponent’s batting average. Before the All Star Break opponents hit .300. After the break, they hit just .228. If he can sustain his improved command, De La Rosa makes a good candidate to round out a fantasy rotation.
Bronson Arroyo-Post All Star Break numbers: 8-4, 3.47 era, 70 K’s, 27 BB, 1.19 WHIP in 96 Innings. One performance was stuck in the minds of Arroyo owners: 1 inning, 11 Hits, 10 ER, 1K, 1BB. That was Arroyo’s line from a June 24th game against Toronto. He had already struggled in the first half of 2008, but this game proved to be the final straw for many Arroyo owners. Yet from that start until the end of the year, Arroyo was terrific. He went 11-4 with a 3.45 era. Usually thought of as an innings eater, Arroyo has been a surprising source of strike outs as well averaging 167 in his three years in Cincinnati. You could do a lot worse than Arroyo at the back end of your pitching staff.
5 Risky Pitchers
All five of these pitchers have value, and all 5 should absolutely be drafted. However, concerns surrounding each pitcher mean that if you draft them too early, you could be left disappointed.
Carlos Zambrano-Before the All Star Break, Zambrano was on the short list of Cy Young candidates posting a 10-3 record, 2.84 era, 78 K’s, 38 BB, 1.23 WHIP in 120 innings. However things fell apart in the second half as Zambrano battled tendonitis and inflammation in his right shoulder. He managed a second half line of: 4-3, 5.80 era, 52 K’s, 34 BB, 1.41 WHIP in 68 innings. Zambrano’s talent is undeniable: he threw a 9 inning, 110 pitch no hitter against Houston on September 14th. However, even WITH the no-hitter, his era for the month of September was 7.08. Draft with caution.
Gavin Floyd-Floyd enjoyed a break out season for Chicago, finishing 2008 with a 17-8 record and a 3.63 era. However, Floyd’s performance down the stretch is cause for concern. Take a look at opponent’s batting average against Floyd for the last three months of the season:
July: .234
August: .268
September: .292
Not surprisingly, here is his era for those same three months:
July 3.34
August 4.29
September 4.81
Look for this trend to continue, and for Floyd to take a step back this year: 13-11, 4.40 era,
135 K’s, and a 1.35 WHIP.
Cliff Lee-Lee was hands down the biggest fantasy surprise of the year going from a fringe 5th starter to Cy Young award winner. Of course, since his fantastic season came out of nowhere, what kind of value does Lee have next year? Prior to his disastrous 2007 season, where he made just 16 starts and was sent to the minors, Lee averaged 15 Wins, a 4.51 era, 144 K’s and a 1.37 WHIP. Taking that information into account, the most appropriate projection for Lee next year would be a slightly better version of Andy Pettite: 15 Wins, a 4.20 era, 160 K’s, 1.30 WHIP and 200 innings. Still useful, but not a fantasy ace.
Jake Peavy- Peavy is a widely considered a fantasy ace who is just entering his prime. As he demonstrated in 2007, Peavy has the ability to be a Cy Young caliber pitcher in any given year. However, a look at Peavy’s Home/Road splits show some reason for concern.
2006 HOME 6-7, 3.75 era, 1.15 WHIP, 137 K in 117 innings
2006 AWAY 5-7 4.57 era 1.35 WHIP, 78 K in 84 innings
2007 HOME 9-5, 2.51 era, 1.07 WHIP 139 K’s in 125.1 innings
It’s not surprising that Peavy's numbers are better at pitcher friendly PetcoPark. What
IS surprising is how poorly he has pitched away from Petco in 2 of the last 3 seasons. Add a cranky elbow (that forced Peavy to the DL in 2 of the last 3 seasons), and playing for perhaps the worst team in baseball, and doubt begins to set in. Again, Peavy is an extremely talented pitcher, but when drafting a fantasy ace, you want someone you don’t have to worry about.
Scott Kazmir- It’s easy to forget that Kazmir is still just 25 years old. As he demonstrated in 2007, when healthy, he’s among the best pitchers in fantasy baseball. However, Kazmir has dealt with elbow trouble that required stints on the DL in 2 of the last 3 seasons. Of added concern were his struggles pitching deep into games towards the end of last year. He pitched 7 or more innings just 5 times in 27 starts. Of those 5 starts, he pitched exactly 7 innings in 4 of them (the other was an 8 inning performance).
In fact, from July 26th through the end of the season (including the playoffs), Kazmir never pitched more than 6 innings. He reached exactly 6 innings in 7 of his last 17 starts (5 of his last 12 regular season starts, and 2 of 5 post season starts). In that same span, Kazmir failed to go 5 innings in 5 of his last 17 (3 of 12 regular season games, 2 of 5 post season games). Kazmir has definitely has value, but be weary of counting on him to anchor your fantasy staff.
Texas 1B Chris Davis went 2-4 with a walk, a run scored, and 0 strikeouts in his first MLB action since being recalled from the minors.
Davis, a pre-season break out candidate, struggled mightily during the season and was sent to the minors in early July to rediscover his hitting stroke.
While playing for AAA Oklahoma City, Davis did just that hitting .329/.418/.521 with 6 HR and a 39:25 K:BB ratio in 166 AB's.
Davis (34% owned in Yahoo Leagues) will see regular at bats at 1B, as he takes over for the struggling Hank Blalock (hitting just .180/.207/.334 in August).
Of course, strikeouts are the biggest problem when it comes to Davis. If he can limit the K's, he could be a nice source of power down the stretch, and is worth adding.
