Need Stolen Bases? I Thought So.

Stolen Bases are the hardest to accumulate of all the offensive fantasy categories. The reason for that is two-fold. Not only are there not many guys who steal a ton of bases, but of those guys not many of them give you much in the other four (or more) categories. It’s the reason Hanley Ramirez was this years consensus number one pick over Albert Pujols (that and position scarcity) and the reason people pick Carl Crawford in the top 20 every year. Steals are just simply hard to come by. Because they are hard to come by, they also tend to be an easy spot to make up ground. In all probability much of your league is fairly close in steals, with whoever owns Crawford and Ellsbury out to a solid lead.

What if you’re not in possession of one of those two guys? What if I told you that you can still pick up a guy who is going to steal you 15-20 more bases this season? Is that something you’d be interested in? Look no further than Nyjer Morgan. Morgan is one of only 6 players with more than 25 Steals this season. He’s also one of two of those 6 players who isn’t owned in 99% of all leagues already (Michael Bourn, 82%). Yea, but that’s the whole season so far, what has Nyjer done for me lately? He’s only got the highest batting average (.482) and the most stolen bases (8) in baseball since the all-star break. In fact, since coming over to the Nationals, Morgan has stolen 13 bases in just 22 games. Compare that with the 18 he stole in 71 games for Pittsburgh. Morgan is hitting the ball, he’s getting on base and most importantly for you; he’s running. Nyjer Morgan is still somewhat of a secret among fantasy owner, but that is getting less and less true with each passing day. Timing is everything in this game. It’s time you starting paying attention to Nyjer Morgan. Morgan is available in 36.5% of ESPN.com and 45% of Yahoo leagues. PCB Scout Questions? Comments? Random Nonsense? Email me: pcbscout(at)gmail.com

Mailbag: A Choice of Outfielders

In this edition of the mailbag we take a look at a question from a reader with an unusual name, but a very common issue. Let's take a look. PCB, I need your advice on a trade. A guy in my league offered me any one of the following outfielders for John Danks. Can you rank them in order of preference? I’m choosing between Corey Hart, Torii Hunter, Jermaine Dye and Shin-Soo Choo. My team is doing alright in the power categories but lacking some in speed and average. Help a brother out! Cupcake Timmons Staten Island, NY Cupcake, This has got to be the first time I’ve called another man Cupcake, but given my love for cupcakes, how could I skip over this email? Let’s start with the short answer: I’d trade Danks for Hunter, Choo or Dye. You notice I didn’t mention Corey Hart’s name. I have always been a fan of Hart’s skills but he has been seriously lacking on the field this season. He might be able to turn it around but at this point he hasn’t showed you enough to be worth a trade, even for a mid level starter like Danks. Plus let’s be serious, the guy wears sunglasses at night. Danks has been pretty decent this season, but recently seems to be having an issue with a blister on his throwing hand. He's expected to miss his next start and it wouldn't shock me if he hits the DL. You're selling Danks at just the right time. With that out of the way, let’s take a look at your three other options, in order of (my) preference: Shin Soo Choo: Choo has been very solid this season and very underrated. You’re team is lacking in average and speed and Choo can help you in both of those categories and give you some power to boot. Take a look at the numbers: Choo’s line is .286 – 13 – 54 so far this season, along with 13 steals. He’s also coming off an 08 season where he had a very encouraging second half. Choo hit .343 in the second half last year, with 11 Homeruns and 48 RBI. The guy is playing every day and is safe, productive and has a really fun name to say. Torii Hunter: Normally Hunter would be the obvious choice in this group. Each of his number is as good or better than Choo’s. The trouble is Hunter is on the DL. Trading for a guy on the DL is dangerous business. We’re not talking a flu virus or something of that nature. Hunter suffered a strained oblique and while reports are that he’s doing light workouts and should be back around August 1, muscle strains can be testy. More than likely Hunter will make a full recovery, but I don’t feel like he’s as safe a bet as Choo at this point. Jermaine Dye: Despite being at the bottom of this list, Dye is nothing to sneeze at. I’d definitely make the deal for Dye if none of these other guys were involved. Dye has put up a .291 average to go along with 21 Jacks and 60 RBI. As I see it, Dye has two downsides compared to the other two guys. One is that he gives you nothing in the speed department. He has yet to steal a base this year and odds are he won’t. On top of that, you have to take a look his track record. Last season Dye gave you about the same numbers in the first half as he has so far in 09. The problem is he experienced a significant fall off in the 2nd half of last season, with his numbers declining in every single category. Let’s be honest; no one knows what’s going to happen from here on out with these guys. All you can do is look at the information out there, study the trends and decide whether or not you want to play it safe. Choo is the safe bet here. Hunter is the lottery ticket. I believe it’s still early enough in the season to take the safe bet and hope he gives you what you’re expecting. Good luck, Cupcake. I sure hope that’s just a nickname. PCB Scout Questions? Comments? Random nonsense? Email me: pcbscout(at)gmail.com

Romero the Real Deal?

Generally speaking, I tend to not trust rookies. They show flashes of brilliance one night and the next night they look as lost as I used to when listening to a Michael Vick postgame interview. Every once in a while, though, a rookie will come out and shine on a consistent enough basis that I’m willing to put my trust in him. This year one of those guys is Toronto Blue Jays Pitcher Ricky Romero. Or, as I call him: Ricky “The Real Deal” Romero. It sounds like a sweet Boxing name, doesn’t it? In 79 innings this year Ricky has a 2.96 ERA and 1.27 WHIP and those numbers are severely inflated by two bad starts he had after coming off a month long DL stint in May. To go along with those numbers, Ricky has been racking up Wins and Strikeouts. The Real Deal is 7-3 and has 66 Strikeouts, which for those of you who are mathematically challenged is good for a 7.5 K/9 ratio. Those are very impressive numbers for a rookie Starting Pitcher. Even more impressive is what Ricky has done over the past month. In his last six starts (41.2 innings) Romero has a 4-1 record, a 1.94 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP. He also fanned 40 batters in that time. Romero’s numbers have been more impressive at home- a 2.31 ERA compared to 3.60 away- but after watching him throw a solid game at Yankee Stadium this week, I am ready to trust this kid as “must start” at least for the time being. Don’t make me regret it Ricky… Romero is available in 41% of Yahoo and 56% of ESPN leagues, with a 21% spike in ESPN league ownership this week alone. Better get on it, kids.

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PCB Scout

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The Other Beckham in Sports

When people hear the name Beckham they tend to think of David. Well, either him or his wife Victoria and those shot puts she calls boobs. Don't get me wrong, she's a lovely woman, but for what she undoubtedly paid for her surgery they could stand to be a bit less... obvious. Okay, I got side-tracked. Let's move on.

Over the past month a new Beckham has appeared on the sports scene; Chicago White Sox Third Basemen Gordon Beckham.

Gordon's arrival in the big leagues started off very slowly. In his first 8 games Beckham started off with a whisper. His last 16 games have gone down with a bang.

In his first 8 games Beckhams line looked like this: .071, 0 R, 0 HR, 0 RBI. Jeez, Gordo, thanks for coming out.

Over the last 16 games though, Beckhams line has been pretty impressive: .431, 12 R, 2 HR 14 RBI. Now that's more like it. He even stole a base this week.

Beckham is still pretty new to professional baseball. He was the White Sox first round pick in 08. In his 45 games before being called up, Beckham was hitting .326 with 4 HR and 25 RBI at Double and Triple A ball. This guy is a very solid baseball player, but do expect him to be streaky. Young players tend to struggle to remain consistent.

Another nice thing about Beckham from a fantasy perspective is that he is eligible at both Third Base and Shortstop.

Don't count on massive numbers from here out, but this is a talented player who, when he's hot, can definitely help you.

Gordon Beckham is available in 96% of ESPN and 88% of Yahoo leagues.

Victoria Beckham on the other hand remains unavailable. That is unless you're salary happens to have more zeros than David's.

PCB Scout

Questions? Comments? Random nonsense? Email me: PCBScout(at)gmail.com

Naive about Nieve

If you haven’t been visiting your mistress in Argentina or hiking the Appalachian Trail for the past two weeks you’ve probably noticed that the Mets have gotten three strong pitching performances in a row from the recently called up Fernando Nieve. Since putting John Maine and Oliver Perez on the DL the Mets have turned to Nieve to take the ball every 5th day in the interim. At first it seemed he’d be headed right back to the bullpen or even back to the minors when Maine or Perez was available again. As a result of the way those two have been throwing so far this season, the talk has become that Fernando just might hold on to his spot in the rotation. Nieve is essentially a career Minor Leaguer whom the Mets claimed off of waivers in May. Since then he spent a month in Double and Triple A, before getting called up in early June. In 24 innings at AAA Nieve posted a 3.70 ERA and 1.15 WHIP, piled up 3 wins and struck out 23 batters along the way. Since arriving in New York his strikeouts are down, but so are his ERA and WHIP. Fernando is posting a 1.31 ERA and a .97 WHIP. Also notable is that he’s only given up one extra base hit in 3 starts, which went for a Homerun. So far Nieve has won all 3 of his starts, none of which have come against weak competition. He pitched well against the Yankees and Rays and recently shut out the Cardinals, even getting Albert Pujols to fly out in a clutch situation. If the Mets continue to give Nieve a chance to start his numbers, of course, should get a bit higher. That being said, he is pitching for a team capable of providing run support and in a stadium which is much friendlier to pitchers than it is to batters. Nieve is owned in only 3% of ESPN and 11% of Yahoo leagues. Nieve has value as long as he remains a Starting Pitcher. He’s probably still just a guy to keep an eye on in most formats, but in a deeper mixed league, I went ahead and added him. I suggest you do the same.

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Quitting Time: Chris Davis

Some people hate quitting things. You hear them sanctimoniously saying things like “I’ve never quit anything in my life!” or “I’m not a quitter”. For whatever reason they’ve gotten it in to their head that quitting something is always a bad thing. Not me. I have no issues with quitting something should the situation call for it. There is a saying that goes: “quitting while you’re ahead isn’t the same as quitting”. Very true, but I think that quitting before you get too far behind isn’t the same as quitting either. I can tell you with absolute certainty that there are plenty of ex-heroin addicts and ex-Enron shareholders who wish they had known when to quit. That brings me to my new segment: Quitting Time. As the events of the league call for it, I’ll be updating you on guys who it’s finally time to give up on. Everyone always tells you who to pick up, but no one ever tells you who to drop… until now. In our first installment of Quitting Time we abandon Chris Davis, of the Texas Rangers. Before the season began, many Fantasy Baseball players were regarding Davis a lot like Josh Hamilton the year before. That is to say people had very high hopes and thought they could buy in for a 9th-10th round pick and get 2nd or 3rd round productivity. I even had a friend keep Davis over Carlos Lee in a keeper league I am in. That’s how confident people were that he’d be having a breakout season. Instead, Davis buyers have been treated to the proverbial sharp stick in the eye. I don’t even know where to begin talking about Davis’ numbers. He’s been awful at home and away. He’s be awful against righties and lefties. He’s been awful during the day and at night. In fact, Davis has only hit over .300 in two series all year. Series!! Think about that. I wish that were the end of the bad news. Davis has not had a month where he’s hit over .222. Nor has he had a month were he’s gotten on-base at better than a .273 clip. The guy is on pace to strike out 248 times. 248!! That’s just an absolutely staggering number. About the only thing Davis has done for you has been hit homeruns. He has 12 homeruns on the year, but none in June and his 27 RBI make you wonder if all of them were solo shots. Is there a chance Davis turns it around and has a solid second half? Sure there is. He does have a track record of catching on quickly. He was drafted by the Rangers in 2006 and in 2007 had already become their Minor League Player of the Year. Last year, when he came up to the big leagues he caught on quickly, hitting .285 and knocking 17 Homeruns in just 80 games. All that being said, I definitely think it’s time to quit on Chris Davis. If you’re able to get anything from another owner for him- get it. Even with his 12 Homeruns the rest of the numbers are absolutely abysmal. Dropping Davis at this point is addition by subtraction. Quitting while you’re ahead isn’t the same as quitting. Neither is quitting before you’re too far behind.

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PCB Scout

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Questions? Comments? Random nonsense? Email me: pcbscout(at)gmail.com

Working the Wire: OF's

We are almost two months into the Fantasy Baseball season and things are beginning to take a noticeable shape. The top teams are starting to establish themselves; the contenders are looming; and things are looking bleaker every day for the bottom feeders. Coming into the season, the Outfield position was looking pretty slim and, save for a few surprises, has since held true. As such, I’d like to take a look at a few guys who may be able to be of assistance to you if you are struggling to find production. Without further ado: Luke Scott, OF, Orioles: My good friend Mack is a big Orioles fan. He’s always chirping to me about one player or another with a mediocre name, who usually ends up having a good month and then fading into obscurity like we all wish “Joe the Plumber” would. The same may end up being true for Luke Scott. Then again, it may not. Scott put up a .432 average with 8 jacks and 18 RBI in the month of May. Those are massive digits for a guy who, apart from 21 RBI in September of ’06, has never achieved any of those numbers in a single month before. Nevertheless, those numbers are very impressive and Scott can still be had in 54% of ESPN and 50% of Yahoo leagues. Hideki Matsui, OF, Yankees: I have to admit, I’m not a Matsui fan. What I am a fan of is yelling “GOOOOZZZZZIIIIRRRRRAAA” every time he comes to the plate. And Fantasy owners should be a fan of what he’s done over the past week. In the past seven days, the slugger from Kanazaka is hitting .381 with 3 Homeruns and 8 RBI. With the Yankees hitting their stride in the second half of May, the runs are piling up. Expect Godzilla to be not only driving them in, but scoring them as well. Matsui is still available in 39% of ESPN leagues and 61% of Yahoo leagues. Marlon Byrd, OF, Rangers: With Josh Hamilton headed to the DL, Marlon should be playing every single day in that loaded Texas lineup. Over the past seven days Byrd is hitting .438 with a pair of Homeruns. He is also hitting .302 on the season and has 4 Homeruns to go along with 25 RBI. (Side note: do you think the rapper “Birdman” is mad that so many more people are being referred to as “The Bird Man” all of the sudden? I think yes.) Byrd is a streaky, but solid, player who has been effective when in the lineup. He probably isn’t worth owning in 10-team mixed formats, but in deeper formats is worth a look. He is currently available in 93% of ESPN leagues and 92% of Yahoo leagues. PCB Scout Questions? Comments? Random nonsense? Email me: pcbscout(at)gmail.com

Where's the Love For Juan Pierre?

I don’t understand a lot of things. I don’t understand why anyone uses, talks about, or “networks” with Twitter. I don’t understand how Vegas gets away with charging you $600 for a $50 bottle of Grey Goose. I don’t understand why I thought Emilio Bonifacio was for real. And I especially don’t understand why Juan Pierre is not owned in 100% of fantasy baseball leagues. As it stands, Pierre is available in 40% of Yahoo leagues and 28% of ESPN leagues. What more does Pierre need to do to get some love? Get a smaller helmet? Hit homeruns? Ok, fine, I’ll give you that. But apart from a lack of homeruns Pierre has been an absolute monster since Manny’s suspension. Since May 7th, Pierre is hitting .421. He’s also scored 18 runs, driven in 15 runs, and stolen 8 bases. He has been probably the most productive player on a team that has scored the 2nd most runs in the Majors. We’re not talking about a guy who is just putting up numbers out of the blue. Pierre has always been productive in the Batting Average, Runs and SB categories. Pierre is a career .302 hitter and a guy who stole 40 bags last year in just 375 at-bats. He simply has not had the chance to play much with LA signing Manny and developing both Kemp and Ethier. I know you’re probably thinking that he’s not worth the pick up because he’ll be back to the bench once Manny returns. While that’s true, it’s also true that Manny is still five weeks away. On top of that, with the way Pierre is putting up numbers while Ethier is struggling, Pierre just might see some additional playing time. I’ll tell you what: take the numbers I laid out above and compare them to what you’re getting from your current Outfielders. I can pretty much guarantee you that at least one of them is not giving you the numbers Pierre is putting up. The clock is ticking on Juan Pierre as an everyday starter. Strike while the iron is hot. - - PCB Scout - - - Questions? Comments? Random nonsense? Email me: pcbscout(at)gmail.com

Trades Anatomy

Trading can be one of the most exciting and also the most nerve wracking part of Fantasy Sports. It can make or break your season. Make the right trade, and you’re on top of the world. Make the wrong trade, and you’ll feel like Vanilla Ice circa 1991.

As you can imagine, I am in a multitude of leagues. Different depths, formats, rosters, etc… One of my leagues is a fairly shallow, 10 team head-to-head league. This morning I executed a trade, which I’d like to break down for you to demonstrate the anatomy and thought process that should go in to each move. Let’s start with the brass tacks: I give: Matt Holliday, Matt Lindstrom I get: Alfonso Soriano At first glance it seems like a lot to give up to get Soriano; and maybe it is. When we take a closer look, however, the move makes sense for both my, and the other guy’s, teams. What you need to know ahead of time is that the league is shallow and there are plenty of solid players available. Also, my team has a need for steals and homers and I am weak at Shortstop because Stephen Drew is a lot like the first time I had sex: brief and disappointing. Well, maybe just disappointing in Drew’s case. My roster is stacked with five closers; three of them premier guys (Broxton, Bell, and Soria). That makes Lindstrom expendable. In a head-to-head you don’t really need more than three closers, so even without him I’m in good shape. First, I decide to seek out the team most in need of saves. Once I indentified that team, I perused the roster for any players that might pique my interest. The first spot I check is Shortstop, because that’s my main positional need. His Shortstop situation is a no-go, with only Jason Bartlett and Troy Tulowitzki on his roster. A lot of people would carry on in search of a Shortstop to trade for. I am not a lot of people. What I did instead was look for any other players that might serve as an upgrade for me at any position. That’s when I decided on Soriano. Remember, I also need Homeruns and Stolen Bases. Ok, so I want Soriano and I know I’m giving him Lindstrom, but he isn’t making that deal straight up; I need to add in another quality player. If I don’t give him an OF to replace Soriano, he’ll be less likely to make the deal and I’ll have five outfielders. That leaves me with Lind, Cruz, Choo and Holliday to couple with Lindstrom. Lind has the best numbers, but doesn’t have the name recognition to support his value. Cruz has massive upside, but is also lacking in name. Choo has been very solid and is one of my few sources of Stolen Bases. That brings me to Holliday. He has the name to catch some attention and he’s coming around just enough to be intriguing. His power numbers and steals are down in that abysmal Oakland lineup. Holliday is marketable enough that the trade makes sense on the other side, but not so much that Soriano isn’t an upgrade for me. Perfect, Holliday it is. If you look at the trade and only consider the players involved, the deal is slightly lopsided in his favor. What most people forget to consider is that I’m giving 2 and getting 1 and that means I am free to add a player from free agency, which has value. That means whatever player I add, in a sense becomes part of the deal. Creating an empty spot in my roster allows me to address my need at Shortstop without having to drop Drew, who I still think might pull it together. That kids, is the long and short of it. Identify an expendable player. Determine which opposing team is in need of the services of said player. Decide if that team can trade you a player to fit your need. If the swap isn’t even, decide who you can couple with your expendable player to produce an upgrade for your roster. Make sure to choose a player with enough of a name that you’ll get proper value. And don’t forget: if you trade two players for one upgrade, especially in a shallow league, you’ve in effect added another player to the deal by way of free agency, which might help you fill another need. Happy Trading! PCB Scout

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Mailbag: Adam Jones, Manny and More...

Believe it or not, people send me emails. I know… I was surprised too. With a Fantasy Baseball season that’s seen as much parody as this one I can see why people are in need of help. The combination of injuries, underperformers, highly anticipated call ups and of course the Manny saga have made this season about as hard to predict as which mood your wife or girlfriend is going to be in after the Grey’s Anatomy season finale. Seriously, your guess is as good as mine. While you’re pondering the endless possibilities, let’s take a look at a few emails: Question: I, like many others in the fantasy baseball world, have possession of Manny Ramirez. I know initially it seems like one has no choice but to stash him for his return, but is this really true? Is it worth saving Ramirez until his return, or will I be better off moving on? -George Coffee, Toledo, OH. George, my friend, this is an easy one. You definitely keep Manny. The only scenario I could see dropping him is if you have no bench spots at all. If you end up dropping him, someone else is going to grab him immediately. Then, when he comes back on July 3rd and blows up you’ll feel like Britney Spears watching Justin Timberlake’s “Behind the Music”. Remember, 50 games sounds like a lot more than it is. He is out for May and June. You still have the entire second-half of the season to enjoy his production. I expect him to come back with something to prove. If last year’s second-half stint with the Dodgers showed us anything, it’s that when he’s got something to prove, Manny is going to prove it. Hi, PCBScout, my High School buddies and I have been in a keeper league for 4 years now. As is the case with most groups of friends, people move out of the hometown and all over the country. We have most of our guys on the East Coast, with a handful on the West Coast. I'm wondering - do you see any advantages or disadvantages, regarding roster moves, waivers, etc., between the coasts? Thanks! -Vaughn Blevins, Yonkers, NY. Hi Vaughn, I know the feeling. A few of my friends are still here in town, but we’ve also lost a few soldiers to the lure of better weather, better pay and more entertainment options. Hard to imagine, huh? This particular question is one I had to think about for a while. I’ve come to the conclusion that ownership is the same on either coast, but might have a slight advantage on the East Coast over the West for a few minor reasons. Most games are played on the east coast, which means you have access to watching more games. Also, for weekend games that start at 1 pm EST, you’re more likely to be up and available to manage your roster before those games get underway. Other than that, I can’t think of an advantage to one coast over the other. Good question, V.B.! - Paul, I am writing in about Tampa Bay Rays Minor League pitcher David Price. I have had Price since the beginning of the season and have been offered a couple of trades for low to medium level outfielders and or pitchers. I have held out in hopes that Price will turn out to be something as special as he is predicted to be. Should I get rid of him and move on, or is he worth holding in hopes he gets called up soon? –JR K, Rochester, NY. JR, I know waiting on a guy to get called up can be frustrating. It seems like all the information you can get is speculation and meanwhile that roster spot is giving you as much production as a Pontiac plant (too soon?). That being said, I think you’re going to see Price in the majors soon. Right now his numbers are not looking very impressive in the minors. He is 1-4 with a 4.60 ERA. The good news is his strikeout numbers are still very impressive at over 8 K’s per nine innings. Also in Price’s favor is that the Rays can’t be pleased with what they are getting from Jeff Niemann, their current fifth starter. Niemann has an ERA over 5 and has only made it through 6 innings once this year. In addition to the numbers the Rays are approaching a pivotal spot in their season. They’re 6.5 games back and if they don’t start to get in to stride they’re going to be out of it before they know it. As for whether or not to trade Price; that depends. Of course if you can fill a need, or get a great value from an over-anxious owner, do it. For the low to medium level players you indicated, don’t bother. PCB, being from Aberdeen, MD, I am obviously a huge Orioles fan! I have loved the maturation of Adam Jones. He is off to a hot start (.358, 6 HR, 21 RBI, 33 R, 3 SB) and has been extremely valuable to my team. However, I have reservations that he might just be off to a fluke start and will cool down throughout the year. Although, I do not want to trade him, do you think now is the time to shop him around the league while his stock is high and get a top tier performer the rest of the year, or do you think he has arrived and should be kept? I am not in a keeper league, so next year does not matter to me. Go IRONBIRDS! –Skip, Aberdeen, MD Skip, congrats on having Adam Jones to root for. He is quite a talent. This note was clearly sent before Jones put up another 2 Homeruns on Tuesday. Our buddy Skip must have been trying to keep his Markakis in his shorts over that one. I don’t think there is any question that Jones will cool down some. He’s on pace for some absolutely staggering numbers, and while he’s very talented and I am a big fan, he will certainly face some growing pains along the way. The answer to should you trade any player is always the same; for the right price, yes! Never stop trying to make your team better. No one on your roster should ever be untouchable. With that said, I think the chances are pretty slim that you’ll get proper value for Jones. You might have some prospect crazed owner willing to part with top talent to get his claws on Jones, but most likely people are going to be offering you 3rd tier type players for Jones at this juncture. Just to give you a few names to work with, I would probably be looking for a Morneau level hitter or Gallardo level pitcher for Jones. Anything less than that range is not giving you proper reliability in exchange for the production and upside you’d be losing with Jones. Thanks for the emails, everyone and keep them coming! PCB Scout Questions? Comments? Random nonsense? Email me: pcbscout(at)gmail.com

Working the Wire: 3 Middle Infielders

In my introduction I usually try to come up with some crafty way to segue into whatever it is I’ll be writing about in my article. Sometimes it comes easily and other times it’s like Craig Counsel’s batting stance: awkward and painful to look at. Today, however, I’m totally baffled. See, I’m a Los Angeles Dodgers fan, and well… you know what news broke today. On one hand, the Dodgers will only be without Manny’s services until July 3rd, which leaves plenty of time to right the ship and win the Division. On the other hand- what a massive disappointment! Frankly, I’ve never been a huge Manny fan. I can’t stand guys who take games off. I like guys who scrap and play hard every single night. But it seemed like this was a new Manny; he was playing hard, running hard, crushing the ball, and making every other hitter around him better. I can only hope the Dodgers will still hit without him… I can only hope. I am terribly flustered. So much so that I have no segue for you, so with that- let’s take a look at three middle infielders you may want to target if your team is in need of help. Yunel Escobar, Braves: Escobar is in the top 4 amongst the majors’ Shortstops in RBI, BA and OBP. He’s hitting .391 with 5 RBI already this month, and even has an absurd name. Come on people! What are you waiting for?! Listen, there’s a good chance your current Shortstop isn’t giving you what Escobar could. There’s also a good chance you’re waiting for Rollins, Reyes, Furcal or Troy Tulo to stop the proverbial “bowel movement in the bed” and start earning his salary. Either way, Escobar is available in 69% of ESPN and 51% of Yahoo leagues. Alberto Callaspo, Royals: By now, everyone knows the Royals are off to a hot start. What most have yet to realize, however, is that Callaspo has been a big contributor to their efforts. Callaspo is hitting .359, making him 2nd best in the majors among Second Basemen. He’s also showing some new power with a Homerun and 6 RBI in the past week. Not to mention Alberto is smoking left-handed pitching like strippers smoke Newports, to the tune of a .457 average. That fact alone makes him a match-ups play at the very least. I of course don’t expect him to continue at this pace, but he hit .305 in 200+ at-bats last year, and will be getting more than that this year. So, if your Second Baseman is on the wrong side of the Hudson/Cano region, Callaspo can be had in 86% of ESPN and 74% of Yahoo leagues. Asdrubal Cabrera, Indians: Let’s get one thing straight right off the bat: Cabrera is not a homerun hitter. He’s hit 10 in his short career, and only 1 this year. This year’s was a floater that carried over that joke the Yankees are calling their new right field wall. That being said, Asdrubal has been consistently solid this season. He’s hitting .333 and getting on base at a .416 mark. To top it off, he’s also scored 21 runs, driven in 14 runs and stolen 4 bases. Those numbers project to over 120 runs scored, 80 driven in, and 23 steals. While he’ll probably see a small downturn on those digits, it’s not unreasonable to expect 100 runs, 20 steals. Cabrera is still available in 37% of ESPN and 42% of Yahoo leagues. PCB Scout Questions? Comments? Random nonsense? Email me at: pcbscout(at)gmail.com

Working the Wire: 3 Deep Starters

If you’re like me, you love Saturdays, Wendy’s, and Bud Light. Or maybe you’re just like me because you’re in a pretty deep league in which the pickings on the waiver wire are slim-to-none, and Slim just left town. Along with my colleagues here at ProFantasyBaseball.com, I’m involved in a deep 13-team mixed league in which the selection of available pitchers looks like that basket on Halloween that sits underneath the sign reading “Please Take One.” Because I know many of you are in the same boat, let’s take a look at three pitchers who are out there in almost every league and who may be able to help you in your quest for the Gold. Doug Davis, Diamondbacks: Davis seems to be flying under the radar in most leagues. His three losses are keeping him from landing higher in your free agency rankings; but unlike his heinous “soul patch,” his other numbers are worth a closer look. Davis was roughed up in his first start against the Rockies, and again last week at home against the Giants. In his other three starts this season, however, Davis tossed 23 innings and has given up only 2 earned runs. He has also struck out 27 batters in 34 innings of work. Davis recently shut out a very solid Cubs lineup and is currently sitting pretty with a 2.91 ERA and 1.18 WHIP. He’s available in 96% of ESPN and 92% of Yahoo leagues. Ross Ohlendorf, Pirates: Ohlendorf is not a strikeout guy. Let’s just get that out of the way right off the bat. He has struck out an unimpressive 10 batters in 25 innings, the college equivalent of which is hitting 3 cups on a 10 cup beerpong rack – underwhelming, to say the least. What is impressive, though, is the Pirates’ young staff so far this season, which Ohlendorf has been a significant part of. Four starts into the season, Ross is carrying a 3.24 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP. Even without the strikeouts those are numbers that are sure to help your squad. The strikeout numbers not withstanding, Ohlendorf has been a valuable fantasy option so far and continues to be available in 97% of ESPN and 96% of Yahoo leagues. Scott Richmond, Blue Jays: So far, Richmond has been a real nice surprise for a Blue Jays pitching staff that’s about as dinged up as that Cougar who was recently eyeballing you at your local grocery establishment. Scott struggled in his first start, giving up 3 earned in 4 innings. But since then he’s been solid, including a 7 inning effort against Kansas City this week in which he gave up 1 earned and struck out 5. Richmond has also struck out a total of 20 batters in 23 innings, and has a 2.70 ERA and 1.29 WHIP in four starts. He is still available in 95% of ESPN and 88% of Yahoo leagues. There’s a chance your league is shallow enough that you don’t need to run the risk of going to battle with one of these guys. If it isn’t, consider rolling the dice with the aforementioned hurlers. I already have.

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PCB Scout

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Questions? Comments? Random Nonsense? Email me at PCBScout(at)gmail.com

Exit the Sandman?

As humans, Americans, sports fans, and fantasy players we are conditioned to expect immediate results. In business they call it ROI, or Return on Investment. And in the fantasy case where you’ve invested a draft pick on a player, you expect him to give you return on that investment by producing numbers for you. Unfortunately that isn’t always the way things work out. Before the season even started, Pablo Sandoval had made the jump from being a sleeper to being a much-targeted player and as a result was no longer a sleeper at all. If you ended up with Sandy during your draft you probably spent a pick somewhere between the 12th and 15th rounds to get him. While that’s not a huge investment, you did expect him to start for you, and as such were expecting results. So far, Pablo has let you down to the tune of a .245 BA, along with zero homers and 1 RBI. Geez, Pablo, thanks for coming out. But Sandy isn’t getting much help from his teammates either. The Giants are ranked last in Runs Scored, 29th in OBP, 26th in BA, and 29th in Total Bases. What that should tell you is that this is an anemic offense that isn’t going to produce many chances for Sandoval to either drive in runs or be driven in. So, the bad news is pretty extensive. The good news is that Sandy does have very nice upside. He hit .350/20/96 in 112 games in the Minors last year. That’s an even more impressive line when spread out over 150+ games. Sandoval is eligible in most leagues at C, 1B and 3B, which gives you some nice flexibility for injuries, off-days, etc. Also, he has hit safely in 5 of his last 6 games, which could be a sign of things to come. Ok, so now that you’ve got the skinny on Pablo Sandoval, what do you do with that information? Odds are you drafted him to be your catcher, despite his eligibility at 1B and 3B. If that’s the case, 10-team mixed league owners should hang on to him… at least for now. Sandoval’s upside and position flexibility make him worth at least another few weeks of your patience. And I hope it goes without saying that in NL-only or two-catcher formats Sandoval should be held onto. If, on the other hand, you drafted him to play a corner infield spot for you, odds are you can find more of a sure thing out there on the waiver wire. And unless you’re in a keeper league or your league is very deep, I’d probably go ahead and let Sandy loose.

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Questions? Comments? Random Nonsense? Email me: pcbscout(at)gmail.com

Working the Wire

There are two kinds of people in the world: those who love The Wire and those who have never seen it. If you’ve seen The Wire, you know what I’m talking about. If you haven’t, find the closest mirror, look in it, and hang your head in shame. David Simon's and Ed Burns' masterpiece about the decay of an American city is, in this writer’s opinion, the single greatest series ever to grace the small screen... or any screen for that matter. Now that I got that out of my system, let’s talk about a different wire. The wire that will make or break your fantasy season. The waiver wire. Let’s take a look at a few players that may still be available in your league and may be worth adding. Scott Rolen, 3B, Toronto

Scott Rolen hasn’t been a very exciting player to own since his St. Louis days, however he is off to a fantastic start in the 2009 season. Through 10 games Rolen is hitting .389 and getting on base at a .425 clip. He also has 2 HR, 5 RBI, and has scored 8 runs. Rolen is available in 77% of ESPN leagues and 80% of Yahoo leagues.

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Elijah Dukes, OF, Washington A week ago, the Nationals outfield was crowded. Austin Kearns secured the RF job right out of Spring Training and Lastings Milledge was slated to play Center. But with Milledge having been demoted to the Minors this week, the door is wide open for Dukes. Dukes has always had the talent, but off-the-field antics and injuries have kept him from succeeding. So far this season Dukes has put up a .381/.435 line with a homer and 5 RBI. He swiped 13 bags in just 81 games last year and is still available in 56% of Yahoo leagues and 76% of ESPN leagues. Endy Chavez, OF, Seattle Endy showed flashes of talent in his Mets days but never really locked down a secure job. This year he’s pretty well locked in to the Mariners outfield and is off to a red hot start. Chavez is hitting .405 with a homer and 6 RBI and has already stolen 3 bags. Expect the batting average to come down and the steals to plateau a bit, but .300 and 30 steals is not out of the question. Chavez can be had in 90% of both ESPN and Yahoo leagues. Kyle Lohse, SP, St. Louis

I’ll be honest. I’m not a huge Lohse fan. He did, however, have a great 2008 and is off to a nice start once again in 2009. Even though Lohse’s K/9 rate is troubling, making him less valuable for fantasy purposes, he might be able to help you if your rotations are getting destroyed like mine, or if you’ve taken some injury hits. Lohse has a 1.13 ERA and a teeny-tiny .56 WHIP to boot in 2 starts and 2 wins. He’s also available in 48% of ESPN leagues and only 34% of Yahoo leagues. Jason Marquis, SP, Colorado Marquis is another guy who has never been particularly exciting to own. That’s mostly because he rarely strikes batters out. The plus side to Marquis is that he has been pretty solid thus far in his 2009 campaign. He has a couple of wins against quality teams and is boasting a 1.93 ERA and a WHIP of exactly 1. Another encouraging fact is that he has gone seven innings in both his starts, meaning he's been efficient and has minimized the risk of his questionable bullpen losing the game for him. Marquis is still a spot starter at best at this point, but could be worth an add if you’re hurting. He is available in 99% of ESPN leagues and 96% of Yahoo leagues. Remember, this doesn’t mean that if you run out and get these guys you’ll be all set. But take a look at your roster. Decide if you want to make some changes and if you do, consider these guys as possible options. Believe me, you could do a lot worse.

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PCB Scout

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Questions? Comments? Random nonsense? Email me at pcbscout(at)gmail.com

Buying and Selling the First Four Days

Buy! Sell! Buy! Sell! Money, Money, Money!!! Ok, so I just wanted to sneak in a reference from an obscure Tracy Morgan SNL skit, sue me. Tracy’s character was just pretending to be involved in the market; you on the other hand are involved. Fantasy Sports are not unlike the stock market in that the objective is to buy low and sell high. It’s awful early in the season to be talking about buying or selling your players, but let's take a look at a few things that have transpired thus far - at the four day mark - and whether or not you should buy or sell what you’ve seen so far. Let’s get down to business: BUY: Emilio Bonifacio. This guy has popped up on most peoples radar already (for a more in depth look at Emilio check out the column posted by my colleague, Scout Monkey, from earlier this week). Obviously he won’t get on base at a .600 clip all season and he has very little power but he has the starting job, he’s hitting leadoff and he’s lightning fast. 40 stolen bases and 90 runs is by no means out of the question. SELL: Tony Clark. This should go without saying; but don’t get overly excited about the two home runs Tony hit opening day. Clark has hit 30 homers four times in his career, but hasn’t hit more than 17 since 05, which was back when he was a full-time starter. Expect Clark to continue to back up Chad Tracy at first base and not play enough to be worth a roster spot, even in an NL only. BUY: Chris Carpenter. Carp had his first start Thursday and threw 7 innings of one hit ball allowing no earned runs. Naturally you can’t expect those numbers to hold up but the former Cy Young winner looks to be on his way back to his old form. I don’t think a mid-three ERA and 180k’s is out of the question, although injury is always a concern for Carpenter. SELL: Felipe Lopez’s power. I don’t mean to pick on the D-Bags…err… D-Backs, honestly. Lopez is a solid player and actually I think he will have a pretty decent year, but don’t get too roped in to the two homers he hit opening day. Felipe has only hit more than 11 homers once in his career (23 in ’05) and averages 14 home runs per 162 games played. He might give you .280 with 20 steals but don’t count on more than 12-15 home runs. BUY: Nelson Cruz. I absolutely love this kid! In only 104 games in Triple-A last year Cruz smashed 37 home runs, drove in 100, stole 24 bags and managed to hit .341 while doing it. Clearly, he’s "not in Kansas anymore" but the Rangers home park is a launching pad and make no mistake; Cruz is for real. Expect something in the .290-30-100 range with 10-15 steals for good measure. Did I mention I love this kid?! SELL: Carlos Quentin’s performance so far. After Carlos had his coming out party last year a lot of people felt it was a fluke. I am not one of those people. Granted, it’s too early on to be worrying about anyone this side of John Lackey, but even still I am not worried about Carlos. Last years 36 and 99 on August 25th might be a lot to ask, but expect to see him finish close to both of those numbers if he plays the full season. PCB Scout

Questions? Comments? Random nonsense? Email me at pcbscout(at)gmail.com

Mora Value Than You Think

Written By Paul C Benhamou, PCB Scout www.profantasybaseball.com

Most people think fantasy sports are all about names. And to a certain extent, they’re correct. When you want to make a trade, you’re always going to get a better return for the bigger name. When you’re making a pick, a name like Wright is more durable and reliable – not to mention way better - than a name like Chavez. But what people tend to forget is that the heart of fantasy sports is about numbers; and when drafting, it’s about value. So, forget the names and just focus on numbers and value. Based on value, few players are giving you what Melvin Mora is giving you. Let’s take a look at Mora’s numbers from last year compared with two other third basemen, Adrian Beltre and Ryan Zimmerman, both of whom are being picked in the top 10 at the position:

I know what you’re thinking: “So Mora had a good year and Zimmerman missed 50 games or so - it’ll balance back out.” Ok, well let’s take a look at the averages over the past three years, shall we?

Now that we’ve established that Mora’s numbers are comparable or better than Beltre and Zimmerman’s, a look at their respective ADP’s (Average Draft Position) should reveal that they are all going right around the same spot, right? Wrong.

You read it right. That means Mora is going 11 or 12 rounds later than both Beltre and Zimmerman, and in many 10-team leagues is not even being drafted at all. Mora is slated to hit either 2nd or 5th in an Orioles lineup, which does pack some front-end pop. My advice? If you’ve already drafted, keep an eye on Mora, especially if you’re looking for someone to replace A-Rod for two months or if you ended up with a lesser option at the hot corner.

If you haven’t drafted yet and you end up in that Beltre/Zimmerman spot still looking for a third baseman, use that pick on a starter like Kazmir, Baker, Wainwright, or Volquez, and grab Melvin Mora 10 rounds later. You can thank me later.

PCB Scout

The Five Guys at Every Fantasy Draft

We’ve all been there: It’s draft day. You’re pumped; you’re prepared; all your ducks are in a row; spreadsheets out; players ranked; frosty beverage in hand. Oh yeah, it’s all there. Know what else is there? The rest of your league. Sure, there are some friends mixed in the bunch, along with some decent players, and a couple of acquaintances. And there’s of course that one guy you don’t know, who wore his Jeter jersey just so everyone knows… he’s a big fan! But as always, also mixed in to this group are the following five guys; the five guys at every fantasy draft: The Critic: He’s the guy who has a review of every single pick. Sure, he might toss you a “nice value!” when you score Joey Votto in the 10th, but he’ll also be there to tell you that he’s “down on Volquez this year”. But he doesn’t stop at his personal take. He likes to remind you of the facts you already know: “I don’t know about that pick, Chief, Chipper gets hurt every year”. Thanks, dude. Naturally, he also ends up leading the league in transactions…by double digits. Hey, at least he second guesses everything he does too.

The Predictor: The Critic sometimes doubles as The Predictor, but the two together often make like Shawn Michaels and Marty Jannetty and go tag-team on your patience. The Predictor has his own set of projections for every player. Every. Single. Player. When he snags Tex with his first-round pick he even feels compelled to give him his very own intro: “This guy is going to hit 50 jacks this year; Mark Teixeira!”. And it doesn’t end at the stat lines. He even has the inside track on how many games into the season Soriano is going down with “an ankle”. Amazing he hasn’t parlayed that clairvoyance into a Televangelist gig. The Sleeper Lover: We all know this guy. Heck, a lot of us have been this guy. The Sleeper Lover gets so enamored with his list of sleepers that he ends up with a roster full of them, with each often taken far too early. He’s the guy who grabbed Matt Wieters in the 5th, five rounds before Ryan Doumit was off the board, and Mike Pelfrey long before Adam Wainwright was taken. This guy got himself so caught up in sleepers that he forgot you actually have to take them in the later rounds to get them at true sleeper value- otherwise, they’re just guys on which you blew a top 50 pick. The Retro Picker: When you look over the Retro Picker’s final roster, you’re pretty sure this guy hasn’t actually watched a game since the ’05 season. Sure, he landed a couple nice names in the first two rounds but he also just got a little too excited about picking Michael Young in the 4th. A few rounds later he’s astounded to see Pedro is still on the board. When you return from the bathroom he fist bumps you with an enthusiastic “Todd Helton baby!” The game passed by the Retro Picker so long ago that you’re not sure whether to laugh or to try and trade him Delino DeShields for that new guy… what’s name? Ian Kinsler? Yeah, that’s it. The Homer: While it’s not set in stone, The Homer is almost always a Yankee or Red Sox fan. Sorry guys, but you just have the highest percentage of “fans” who don’t know a thing about the rest of the league. The Homer doesn’t just stop at taking Derek Jeter way too early - he goes all Steinbrenner on the draft and inks every player the Yankees have. And he’s not just confident; he’s 100% sure Posada is hitting “35 jacks this year, Bro!” Sure he is buddy… sure he is.

PCB Scout