Clogging the Bases: Dusty Baker's Nightmare
By Todd Gold
ProFantasyBaseball.com
"Clogging up the bases isn't that great to me." -Reds Manager Dusty Baker
You can debate about the importance of on base percentage (OBP) in baseball until you are blue in the face, but go do so elsewhere. This is a fantasy baseball site, and as such we know exactly how important OBP is to a team in leagues that use the stat as one of its categories. This article is for those of you who are in such a league. Just going out on a limb here; Dusty Baker (pictured to the right) does not participate in such a league. The wisdom of his stance that OBP is overrated belongs in a different article on a different site, though I can't help but wonder if those toothpicks he is always chewing on contain lead.
While good hitters who have high batting averages (AVG) tend to also have high OBPs, there are certain players (especially those of the "three true outcomes" variety) whose value is increased in these sorts of leagues. Below is a list of the 5 players who gain a lot of value from using OBP instead of AVG, as well as a list of 5 players whose value is diminished.
Stock up:
Adam Dunn (1B/OF WAS)
The Big Donkey is the poster boy of the Three True Outcomes club. In leagues that use batting average, Dunn is a nice and productive player, but his .247 career average is a cancer. While Dunn doesn't rack up a whole lot of hits, he does manage to hit a ton of home runs...40 or more in each of the past 5 seasons. Dunn also draws a ton of walks. In fact, Dunn led the majors with 122 free passes last season, contributing to his .386 OBP (which ranked 9th best in the NL) in spite of a very low AVG. Dunn goes from being a HR specialist to a 4-category stud if your league uses OBP instead of AVG. Can you believe this guy used to play for Dusty Baker? It is amazing that there was no Spreewell-Carlisimo type of blowup. It may be worth mentioning that Dunn's OBP in 2008 was .373 in Cincy (with Baker as his Manager) and .417 in Arizona after a late season trade, although the small sample size in Arizona may be a reason for the big uptick (though there may be something to it).
Jack Cust (OF OAK)
Cust is a poor man's Adam Dunn, and is a great late round steal for those of you in OBP leagues. Also, with the additions of Matt Holliday, Jason Giambi and Orlando Cabrera in Oakland, Cust should see an increase in runs and RBI. Cust's .239 career average makes him barely servicable in standard formats, but if your league uses OBP as a category, then his career clip of .382 makes him a low-cost asset. Cust's overall line from last season (77 R, 33 HR, 77 RBI, .375 OBP) was quite similar to that of Vladimir Guerrero (85 R, 27 HR, 91 RBI, .365 OBP), though Cust did play in 5 more games than Vlad (148-143). Will Cust be as good as Guerrero again in 2009? Probably not, but he will (almost certainly) be an exceptional value as a late round pick. Don't worry about his almost 200 strikeouts (unless that is one of your league's categories as well) or his apallingly bad defense, Cust hits bombs, gets on base and should see more RBI opportunities this season.
Jason Giambi (1B OAK)
Jason Giambi returns to his old stomping grounds in Oakland where he was the 2000 AL MVP. A move to a weaker lineup, pitcher friendly park coupled with another year on the odometer are all concerns for the 38 year-old Giambi's outlook in 2009. All that said, Giambi will come quite cheap as a late round pick/auction steal as a result. While Giambi's .286 career average is good, his .408 career OBP is exceptional. Even with a decline, Giambi should hit close to 30 HRs with an OBP in the .370 range. Pretty good value for a guy whose ADP in Yahoo! leagues is 227.2 (19-20th round). Interesting fact: Jason Giambi has hit at least 30 HR in every season in which he appeared in more than 83 games over the past 10 seasons (this has happened 8 of the last 10 years). Who says that late-round, high-upside sleepers have to be young?
Carlos Pena (1B TB)
Pena is an extremely interesting fantasy player. As I noted in an earlier column; Pena mashes RHPs with the best in the business, but struggles severly against southpaws. Pena is best used as a platoon player against right handed pitchers, but he also is a guy who benefits from league settings that utilize OBP rather than AVG. Pena's OBP was a robust .377 last year, down a bit from the .411 mark he set in 2007 (a broken hand suffered in June was a factor). But against RHPs, Pena's OBP was .418. If your league uses OBP (and allows you to change your lineup daily), take Pena and a guy like Giambi late and if you play the matchups correctly (Pena vs righ handed starters, Giambi on the other days) you should get similar production to a guy like Justin Morneau. Even if your league uses weekly lineup changes, Pena is still an underrated talent in OBP leagues.
Albert Pujols (1B StL)
Sure, it is just icing on the cake but somehow Pujols' value actually goes UP in OBP leagues (from arguably the best to simply the best). Not that Pujols' .357 AVG last year was anything to sneeze at, but his .462 OBP was off the charts. The fact is that Pujols is the best hitter on the planet and opposing pitchers are well aware of this fact. Add in that the Cardinals lineup does not offer the greatest protection and Pujols draws a lot of walks, leading to a gaudy OBP. If your league uses AVG, it might be a good idea to take Pujols with the 1st overall pick, if your league uses OBP then you would be an absolute FOOL not to.
Stock down:
Jose Lopez (2B SEA)
Lopez is a nice sleeper in standard formats, but his .322 OBP last year was nothing to write home about. In leagues that use AVG Lopez is underrated (.297 80 R, 17 HR, 89 RBI, 6 SB as a 2B was quite solid last year), but in OBP leagues then he gets the proper amount of street cred.
Bengie Molina (C SF)
Molina is one of the many productive catchers who can be had on the cheap that make drafting Mauer, McCann or Martin early on a waste. But his value is diminished if your league uses OBP isntead of AVG because Molina doesn't walk much. Molina received just 19 free passes last year, leading to a pedestrian .322 OBP in spite of a solid .292 AVG. It is still wise to wait on a catcher, but if your league uses OBP then Chris Ianetta is your man (.390 OBP in '08).
Placido Polanco (2B DET)
In OBP leagues you should just not even bother with Polanco. His one fantasy attribute is his AVG (which is a highly volatile stat), but in spite of his .309 AVG last season, Polanco posted an OBP of just .350 (not bad, but with that kind of AVG you would expect more). Polanco doesn't hit for power or steal a lot of bases, or drive in many runs. His value is derived from a consistently high AVG and 2B eligibility, take away the AVG and he just fills a roster spot (albeit at a scarce position). You can find better, do so.
Carl Crawford (OF TB)
Crawford's performance was down all-around last year due to injury. While the 27 year-old stud is poised for a nice rebound season, his OBP is lower than you'd like to see from a guy you spend your 2nd or 3rd round pick (or a lot of money at an auction) on. He'll improve upon his embarassing .319 mark last year, but realistically you should expect something in the neighborhood of .340. In OBP leagues, Crawford is still a speed demon who will give you a chance to contend in the SB category and score a lot of runs with the occasional dinger thrown in, but he isn't the same 5-category stud that he is in league's that use AVG.
Miguel Tejada (SS HOU)
Miggy prefers to earn his way on base. That is fine, he is still an excellent hitter, but his OBP is a bit of a detriment to fantasy teams. Tejada hit .283 last season, nice, but his .313 OBP was pretty bad. Factor in rapidly declining HR totals (24, 18, 13 over the past 3 years) and age (whatever age he really is) and Tejada is a guy I would suggest avoiding in spite of the lowered price tag.
Post-Script
Notice anything interesting about the positions that these guys play? The five guys whose stock is increased in OBP leagues are either 1B or OF (Dunn is both) while the guys whose stock decreases with the switch from AVG to OBP play scarcer positions (with the exception of Crawford). So leagues that use OBP may be more conducive to a positional scarcity draft strategy, as you can find underrated 1B and OFs later in the draft.
**Special thanks to the fine folks at FanGraphs for their excellent work. I cannot say enough about the quality of free statistical content they provide.**
Todd Gold is a first-year professional baseball scout and a sports junkie who enjoys taking his friends' hard earned money in fantasy baseball leagues and helping his readers do the same. You can contact him here.
You can debate about the importance of on base percentage (OBP) in baseball until you are blue in the face, but go do so elsewhere. This is a fantasy baseball site, and as such we know exactly how important OBP is to a team in leagues that use the stat as one of its categories. This article is for those of you who are in such a league. Just going out on a limb here; Dusty Baker (pictured to the right) does not participate in such a league. The wisdom of his stance that OBP is overrated belongs in a different article on a different site, though I can't help but wonder if those toothpicks he is always chewing on contain lead.
While good hitters who have high batting averages (AVG) tend to also have high OBPs, there are certain players (especially those of the "three true outcomes" variety) whose value is increased in these sorts of leagues. Below is a list of the 5 players who gain a lot of value from using OBP instead of AVG, as well as a list of 5 players whose value is diminished.
Stock up:
Adam Dunn (1B/OF WAS)
The Big Donkey is the poster boy of the Three True Outcomes club. In leagues that use batting average, Dunn is a nice and productive player, but his .247 career average is a cancer. While Dunn doesn't rack up a whole lot of hits, he does manage to hit a ton of home runs...40 or more in each of the past 5 seasons. Dunn also draws a ton of walks. In fact, Dunn led the majors with 122 free passes last season, contributing to his .386 OBP (which ranked 9th best in the NL) in spite of a very low AVG. Dunn goes from being a HR specialist to a 4-category stud if your league uses OBP instead of AVG. Can you believe this guy used to play for Dusty Baker? It is amazing that there was no Spreewell-Carlisimo type of blowup. It may be worth mentioning that Dunn's OBP in 2008 was .373 in Cincy (with Baker as his Manager) and .417 in Arizona after a late season trade, although the small sample size in Arizona may be a reason for the big uptick (though there may be something to it).
Jack Cust (OF OAK)
Cust is a poor man's Adam Dunn, and is a great late round steal for those of you in OBP leagues. Also, with the additions of Matt Holliday, Jason Giambi and Orlando Cabrera in Oakland, Cust should see an increase in runs and RBI. Cust's .239 career average makes him barely servicable in standard formats, but if your league uses OBP as a category, then his career clip of .382 makes him a low-cost asset. Cust's overall line from last season (77 R, 33 HR, 77 RBI, .375 OBP) was quite similar to that of Vladimir Guerrero (85 R, 27 HR, 91 RBI, .365 OBP), though Cust did play in 5 more games than Vlad (148-143). Will Cust be as good as Guerrero again in 2009? Probably not, but he will (almost certainly) be an exceptional value as a late round pick. Don't worry about his almost 200 strikeouts (unless that is one of your league's categories as well) or his apallingly bad defense, Cust hits bombs, gets on base and should see more RBI opportunities this season.
Jason Giambi (1B OAK)
Jason Giambi returns to his old stomping grounds in Oakland where he was the 2000 AL MVP. A move to a weaker lineup, pitcher friendly park coupled with another year on the odometer are all concerns for the 38 year-old Giambi's outlook in 2009. All that said, Giambi will come quite cheap as a late round pick/auction steal as a result. While Giambi's .286 career average is good, his .408 career OBP is exceptional. Even with a decline, Giambi should hit close to 30 HRs with an OBP in the .370 range. Pretty good value for a guy whose ADP in Yahoo! leagues is 227.2 (19-20th round). Interesting fact: Jason Giambi has hit at least 30 HR in every season in which he appeared in more than 83 games over the past 10 seasons (this has happened 8 of the last 10 years). Who says that late-round, high-upside sleepers have to be young?
Carlos Pena (1B TB)
Pena is an extremely interesting fantasy player. As I noted in an earlier column; Pena mashes RHPs with the best in the business, but struggles severly against southpaws. Pena is best used as a platoon player against right handed pitchers, but he also is a guy who benefits from league settings that utilize OBP rather than AVG. Pena's OBP was a robust .377 last year, down a bit from the .411 mark he set in 2007 (a broken hand suffered in June was a factor). But against RHPs, Pena's OBP was .418. If your league uses OBP (and allows you to change your lineup daily), take Pena and a guy like Giambi late and if you play the matchups correctly (Pena vs righ handed starters, Giambi on the other days) you should get similar production to a guy like Justin Morneau. Even if your league uses weekly lineup changes, Pena is still an underrated talent in OBP leagues.
Albert Pujols (1B StL)
Sure, it is just icing on the cake but somehow Pujols' value actually goes UP in OBP leagues (from arguably the best to simply the best). Not that Pujols' .357 AVG last year was anything to sneeze at, but his .462 OBP was off the charts. The fact is that Pujols is the best hitter on the planet and opposing pitchers are well aware of this fact. Add in that the Cardinals lineup does not offer the greatest protection and Pujols draws a lot of walks, leading to a gaudy OBP. If your league uses AVG, it might be a good idea to take Pujols with the 1st overall pick, if your league uses OBP then you would be an absolute FOOL not to.
Stock down:
Jose Lopez (2B SEA)
Lopez is a nice sleeper in standard formats, but his .322 OBP last year was nothing to write home about. In leagues that use AVG Lopez is underrated (.297 80 R, 17 HR, 89 RBI, 6 SB as a 2B was quite solid last year), but in OBP leagues then he gets the proper amount of street cred.
Bengie Molina (C SF)
Molina is one of the many productive catchers who can be had on the cheap that make drafting Mauer, McCann or Martin early on a waste. But his value is diminished if your league uses OBP isntead of AVG because Molina doesn't walk much. Molina received just 19 free passes last year, leading to a pedestrian .322 OBP in spite of a solid .292 AVG. It is still wise to wait on a catcher, but if your league uses OBP then Chris Ianetta is your man (.390 OBP in '08).
Placido Polanco (2B DET)
In OBP leagues you should just not even bother with Polanco. His one fantasy attribute is his AVG (which is a highly volatile stat), but in spite of his .309 AVG last season, Polanco posted an OBP of just .350 (not bad, but with that kind of AVG you would expect more). Polanco doesn't hit for power or steal a lot of bases, or drive in many runs. His value is derived from a consistently high AVG and 2B eligibility, take away the AVG and he just fills a roster spot (albeit at a scarce position). You can find better, do so.
Carl Crawford (OF TB)
Crawford's performance was down all-around last year due to injury. While the 27 year-old stud is poised for a nice rebound season, his OBP is lower than you'd like to see from a guy you spend your 2nd or 3rd round pick (or a lot of money at an auction) on. He'll improve upon his embarassing .319 mark last year, but realistically you should expect something in the neighborhood of .340. In OBP leagues, Crawford is still a speed demon who will give you a chance to contend in the SB category and score a lot of runs with the occasional dinger thrown in, but he isn't the same 5-category stud that he is in league's that use AVG.
Miguel Tejada (SS HOU)
Miggy prefers to earn his way on base. That is fine, he is still an excellent hitter, but his OBP is a bit of a detriment to fantasy teams. Tejada hit .283 last season, nice, but his .313 OBP was pretty bad. Factor in rapidly declining HR totals (24, 18, 13 over the past 3 years) and age (whatever age he really is) and Tejada is a guy I would suggest avoiding in spite of the lowered price tag.
Post-Script
Notice anything interesting about the positions that these guys play? The five guys whose stock is increased in OBP leagues are either 1B or OF (Dunn is both) while the guys whose stock decreases with the switch from AVG to OBP play scarcer positions (with the exception of Crawford). So leagues that use OBP may be more conducive to a positional scarcity draft strategy, as you can find underrated 1B and OFs later in the draft.
**Special thanks to the fine folks at FanGraphs for their excellent work. I cannot say enough about the quality of free statistical content they provide.**
Todd Gold is a first-year professional baseball scout and a sports junkie who enjoys taking his friends' hard earned money in fantasy baseball leagues and helping his readers do the same. You can contact him here.
Labels: KC Scouts, On Base Percentage