Really? Andruw Jones? Really?

This is an article I didn't think I would write, certainly didn't want to write it, but I can't ignore what Andruw Jones is doing in Chicago.

Remember Jones on the Braves? Great fielder, great hitter, exciting, just a great player. Then the Dodgers got him for a bunch of money and he proceeded to go into the toilet. Completely abysmal. As a Dodger fan, I went from, 'Yes! We got Andruw Jones!' to 'What did we do? Just spent a load of money and got nothing.' Complete disappointment. Whatever happened to him from the Braves to the Dodgers seemed to have ended his career.

Not so fast my friend. The 33 year old outfielder is having a bit of a turnaround. So far this year, he is hitting .293, 6 HRs, 9 RBIs, and 3 SBs. I'm not sure he did that his entire time in L.A. If Jones is regaining some of his old form, he is a must watch and a potential waiver wire pickup that can pay off big time. He is owned in about 5% of leagues, so he is probably available for you. Shallow leagues need to watch and see if he keeps up these numbers (if so, then he becomes a must own in almost all formats), deep leagues should seriously consider picking him up and hope he is the old Andrew Jones again.

Why oh why could he have not done this for the Dodgers?

-Scout Monkey

( scout_monkey@gmx.com)

Eye On: Mitch Talbot

A young pitcher with a few good starts under his belt. That describes the 26 year old Mitch Talbot, starting pitcher for the Cleveland Indians.

His first start for the Indians was against the Detroit Tigers and he wasn't great - 5 innings, 4 earned runs, 6 hits, 5 walks, 1 K. Since then, he has settled down nicely. His second start was against the White Sox - 9 innings, 1 earned run, 0 walks, and 2 Ks (and his first win). This was a very solid outing. Today (4/22) he pitched another nice game against the Twins - 6 innings, 0 earned runs, 3 walks, 3 Ks. The strike outs are not encouraging (7 total in 3 games) but he seems to be able to get guys out regardless. Not to be overlooked in this is that his first three starts have come against good teams. He is showing that he can pitch at this level.

It's early to run out and grab this guy in all formats, but he is worth keeping an eye on. In deep leagues, definitely consider him. The rest of you, watch and see how he progresses. If he can get a few more strike outs, that would give a nice increase to his value, but even as is, if he stays this solid, he is looking like he can help your team.

-Scout Monkey

( scout_monkey@gmx.com)

The Amazin' Pelfrey

Last year I was excited about the New York Met pitching. I figured that when they added K-Rod, that the already talented (albeit raw) starters would put up some very nice numbers. Well, it didn't happen (except for Santana of course).

For this year, my expectations of Met pitching, were next to nothing. Outside of Santana, I didn't think any of the other starters were worth much of a look except maybe in deep, deep leagues, or in leagues where you get points for high ERAs and losses.

With all that said, there is a starter on the Mets who is looking good. In fact, he is looking down right great! It's Mike Pelfrey.

Now Pelfrey had the 'young up-and-comer' label along with many of his peers (Maine, Niese, etc.), but didn't do much last year. This year though, it is a very different story. He has started 2 games, pitched a total of 13 innings, given up only 2 runs, 4 walks, and 10 strike outs! Me likes. Oh yea, he also talked the manager in letting him pitch in the 20 inning game and he got the save.

Two games hardly makes him a great pitcher, but it is a good sign. Evidently he started throwing a split finger fastball and this new pitch is what has improved his outings. Time will tell for sure, but he is now worth a look in moderately deep formats. He should be available as he is owned in just over 5% of leagues.

After the last few years, the Mets can use some good news. Mike Pelfrey's performance so far is the best news they have had in a long awhile.

-Scout Monkey

( scout_monkey@gmx.com)

Jose Guillen: Fantasy Stud!

There are different reasons why a player is underrated. One of the main reasons is injury. A guy is real good, but doesn't play consistently enough to really show you his skills. Jose Guillen, OF, KC Royals, falls in this category. I have had him on my fantasy teams past and had mixed feelings. When he was healthy and played, he would put up solid numbers (from a guy I picked late in the draft or off of waivers), but when hurt (fairly often), he would struggle at the plate or miss time altogether. The up and down was frustrating.

Well, Jose Guillen is up now. He is healthy and swinging a mighty bat. Through his first 9 games, he is hitting .361, 5 HRs, and 9 RBIs. In my H2H points league, he is in the top 5 for point getters for all hitters! Yes, a fantasy stud! And of course, he is on the waiver wire.

Let's be real for a moment. Guillen will not be a top 5 point person in my H2H league at the end of the year. He won't be top 5 even among just outfielders. What will he be? He will likely be a .275 hitter with 25-30 HRs (based on his history). Well, that's not bad, but that's not great either. Correct. What we are probably looking at here is a rental type player, or a spot starter. Guillen has always been kinda streaky. Right now he is on a great streak and it's worth playing him until the streak fades. The only question at that point is whether or not to keep him for his next streak or drop him. Honestly, if you drop him, he will probably be available on waivers for his next hitting streak.

One last thing. The unknown. Sometimes a guy comes out of nowhere to put up a great year. A good start doesn't mean that will happen, but it is a start. Jose Guillen has talent, even at 33 years old. Maybe he has a last hurrah in store before his declining baseball years.

-Scout Monkey

( scout_monkey@gmx.com)

Rent-A-Vet: Alex Gonzalez

Seems early to be talking about 'renting' a player, but what Alex Gonzalez is doing so far cannot be ignored.

The 33 year old Toronto shortstop has 4 HRs already (1 behind the league lead). Combined with 4 doubles, a stolen base, and a .333 AVG makes him a nice guy to rent.

This 'rental' could end up being more. Gonzalez has shown some flashes throughout his career of having a good bat, but his real issues have always been with his health. As long as he is healthy he could be a nice option at SS. However, he hasn't been able to stay healthy for years. Time will tell.

What can we expect? Assuming a healthy year, we could be looking at a .280 AVG, 20+ HRs (but really, way to early for this). Regardless of where he will end up at the end of the year, he's healthy now and hitting good (and available in over 80% of leagues). Consider him an early rental with a little upside.

-Scout Monkey

( scout_monkey@gmx.com)

Number 5 is Alive!

For all of you in deeper leagues, there are a couple of number 5 starters to look at.

Charlie Haeger, L.A. Dodgers: When a pitcher fans 12 batters, you have to give at least a little attention. Well, Haeger struck out 12 Marlins in 6 innings with his knuckleball! He also gave up 3 runs and 4 walks (all in all, a quality start). He is not known to strike out batters at the pace he showed on Sunday, so temper some of those expectations. He plays in a nice pitchers park, a team that has an above average (if not good) offense, in a division that is not terribly strong. All of this gives Haeger the potential for double digit wins. Owned in less then 1% of leagues, he should be available.

Mike Leake, Cincinnati Reds: Leake has no minor league experience. None. He went straight from college to spring training and won a spot (over Chapman no less). Not many have done this, but Leake has been given a shot. In his first start he only gave up 1 run and struck out 5 in 6.2 innings. Sounds good. However, he also walked 7 batters. Yep, 7. Amazing that he only gave up 1 run! Still, you have to imagine the guy was battling some nerves. All in all, we're not sure yet what we will get with Leake, but again, a number five starter available in about 98% of leagues.

BONUS: Jaime Garcia, St. Louis Cardinals: I've mentioned him before. He's good. In his first start he went 6 innings, 5 Ks, 1 earned run, 3 BB, and got the win. He's still available in 99% of leagues. If your league has any depth at all, grab him now.

-Scout Monkey

( scout_monkey@gmx.com)

Casey At Bat

Alright, go ahead and 'booo' me over the title. It's pretty bad, but just too easy.

Casey McGehee is the third baseman for the Milwaukee Brewers. The 27 year old had a nice breakout season last year. He batted a .301 AVG, 16 HR, 66 RBI, and 58 Runs (in 116 games). Solid. What makes him more then just another third baseman is that he is second base eligible in most leagues. I wrote about Gordan Beckham and how his second base eligibility (soon) raises his value, same with McGehee.

Although he had a bad spring, he's performing now that it counts. The Brewers have a decent hitting team (Braun, Fielder), so this give McGehee that much more value. If we start with last years stats, we would walk away with a nice second baseman. The fact that he can improve those numbers is exciting. If he continues to hit (5/11, 1 HR, 3 RBIs so far), he'll make a great sleeper. I like him for a .300 AVG, 25 HR, 80 RBIs, and 70 Runs. Not bad at all for a potential waiver wire pickup! Also, being born in my hometown of Santa Cruz, CA, just makes him all the more appealing.

Second base is starting to look a little deeper then I originally thought heading into the year. McGehee is one of the reasons for that. He is available in more then 50% of leagues, but that number is dwindling.

-Scout Monkey

( scout_monkey@gmx.com)

Grab You Some S-Rod

Reid Brignac won the 'rookie of spring training' award for the Rays. Good for him. However, his primary competition is starting over him. Sean Rodriguez is the starting second baseman on the opening day roster. This is a little sooner then most thought (myself included).

Don't the Rays already have a second baseman? Yes. In fact, they have at least 3 guys who can play the position, and play it well. Ben Zobrist (who had a break out year last year) can and will play some 2B, but will also see a lot of RF to allow others to step up. Reid Brignac can play 2B and likely will get some playing time (at the very least as an infield utility guy). Last, we have the above mentioned starting 2B, Sean Rodriguez.

Why pick him up? First, the Rays have shown a great ability to groom young players. Second, as good as Brignac's spring was, Rodriguez's was better. .420 AVG, 15 RBIs, 6 HRs. Third, he already has the 'S-Rod' nickname catching on.

Good development, good hitter, good defender, good team, good pickup for you! Rodriguez has a chance to be one of the better sleepers of the year. Should be available in about 90% of leagues, but probably not for too long.

-Scout Monkey

( scout_monkey@gmx.com)

Secret Second

Second Base has been a weak position for a few years now. Yes, there are some good players, but the difference from tier 1 to tier 2 seems pretty big. Generally you draft a second baseman in the first couple of rounds or the last couple of rounds. But wait, there is a guy who can perform like a high end pick that can be had in middle rounds.

His name is Gordan Beckham, second base, Chicago White Sox. Wait, in my league he is listed as a third baseman, not second. Correct. At this moment, he is only eligible at 3B, but his position for the White Sox this year will be 2B. So within a week or two, he will be 2B eligible. This little fact is why you can get him on the cheap. This is why he is a 'Secret Second'.

You see, as a third baseman, he is average. He would not be a top pick, but would make someones fantasy team in most formats. But average 3B numbers translate to pretty good 2B numbers.

Wait, there's more! He's only 23 and has upside. In 2009, he played in 103 games as a rookie. He put up a .270 AVG, 14 HR, 63 RBIs, and 7 SBs. He can increase all of those this year. That would move him up the third base rankings, but will rocket him up the second base rankings!

In my AL only league, I picked him up in during the middle rounds. I already had two third basemans, but with his 2B eligibility coming soon, he will boost that position.

If you haven't had your draft (ummm, better do it soon) then target him for your 2B position in the middle rounds and watch the good stats roll in. If your draft is over, consider getting him in a trade. You might be able to pull off a good deal, as he is only 3B eligible right now. The moment he grabs 2B eligibility, his price should go up.

-Scout Monkey

( scout_monkey@gmx.com)

Reminder - Jaime Garcia

Well, it's finally official. Jaime Garcia has been named the 5th starter for the St. Louis Cardinals. The choice for the spot was between Garcia and Kyle McClellan. With this announcement, McClellan is bullpen bound. In my opening article for the season, I advised watching this race. So now I'm reminding you again now that the race is over. Go grab Garcia.

Why the attention for a #5 starter? A young pitcher for a good team with good defense. Nice combo. Consider, Garcia was the last person the Cardinals wanted to win the job, not because he's not good, but because of his recovery from Tommy John surgery. Being that they chose him anyway, means he really impressed them. Also, he is adaptable. Huh? Garcia can strike people out (almost a batter per inning), but when conditions/situations call for it, he can get the ground ball outs. Yes, his 'A Game' is good, but so is his 'B Game'. Lastly, the proof is there in his spring numbers: 18.2 innings, 4 Earned Runs, 5 Walks, and 16 Ks.

Being that Garcia is still recovering, you must consider that he will probably have an innings limit. This could hurt at the end of the year, but it should be a nice ride until then. I like his upside and believes he should have a spot in leagues that are at least of average depth. Should be a nice late pick with big upside potential. Keeper leagues should value him a little more.

-Scout Monkey

( scout_monkey@gmx.com)

Sleeper Ace - Part 2

Jake Westbrook, SP, Cleveland Indians, did not throw a pitch last year in the majors. Tommy John surgery will do that to you. But now over a year and a half has gone by since the surgery and Westbrook is ready to go.

What can we expect? Well, before surgery he was a 15 win guy, his ERA was around 4.00 (some years better, some worse), and he struck out about 1 batter every 2 innings. I think Westbrook can keep his ERA around 4.00, the strikeouts will probably be around the same clip, but the wins is where we might see a little dip. Cleveland is not bad, but they were a little better when Westbrook was last pitching. Still, I'm seeing value.

Westbrook looks to be the opening day starter (Staff 'Ace'), which cuts both ways: On one hand, it shows that the Indians like what they see (plus Westbrook says he is feeling good). On the other hand, as the opening day starter, it is going to pit him against all the other teams aces. This could end up with him having a few losses out of the gate until the rotations start to mix.

In any event, I like Westbrook as a late round sleeper in H2H point leagues and a potential waiver wire pickup in deep roto leagues. When healthy, he is a workhorse (200+ innings), and he could do that this year. The team around him is not bad, but the division is competitive. I like him for 13 Wins, 4.10 ERA, and around 100 Ks. I also believe that the more he pitches, the stronger he will get. So if he is available after the draft, watch his starts closely. He is not a top tier starter, but could absolutely give some value to your fantasy team in deeper leagues.

-Scout Monkey

( scout_monkey@gmx.com)

B.H.L. - Matt Harrison

Big, hard throwing, and a lefty. This is a basic criteria that teams like to see in a pitcher. Clearly, not everyone who meet this criteria works out, but it's a nice place to start. With this in mind, let's answer a couple of questions about Texas pitcher, Matt Harrison.

First, is he big? Yes. AT 6'4" and 240, that would qualify him in my book as big.

Second, is he hard throwing? This spring he has reached 97 on the gun. So again, yes.

Third, is he a lefty? Being that he throws the ball with his left hand, the answer is yes.

Fourth, will he be worth anything to my fantasy team? This is the difficult question. Last year he wasn't so hot (I'm being nice). He started 11 games, had a 6.11 ERA, and 34 Ks in 63 innings. Nothing of interest here. However, he was only 23 years old. So why look at him now? Well, this spring he has been fantastic. So far this spring, Harrison has pitched 9 innings, given up 2 runs, and has 10 Ks to only 1 walk. Very nice. Being that he is only 24, maybe he's turned the corner. After all, he does meet the initial criteria we talked about. So to answer the fourth question, yes, he will be worth something to your fantasy team (or at least he can be worth something).

Last, where should I draft him? Here is the beauty part. You ask people who Matt Harrison is and you will get blank stares. No one knows him (not that he has given anyone much reason to know him), so he should be available late in your draft. With a nice fastball, and some good strikeout number (not to mention pitching for a strong offensive team), he could be a nice sleeper. The one problem with Harrison is that if he pitches poorly, then Tommy Hunter will take his spot as soon as Hunter returns from his injury. Harrison will probably have to pitch well to keep his place in the rotation. With all that said though, we are still looking at a low risk/high reward type player.

-Scout Monkey

( scout_monkey@gmx.com)

Sleeper Ace - Part 1

Every year we have pitchers who are coming back from Tommy John elbow surgery. The question always is, how good will they be? Some come back strong, others fade. Let's take a look at Shaun Marcum, SP, Toronto Blue Jays.

Shaun Marcum had Tommy John surgery in 2008. He did not pitch at all in 2009 as he was recovering. Now recovered, what will we get? To find out (no one knows for sure, but let's speculate a little), we need to look at a few things:

First, how good was he before surgery? In 2007, his first full year in the majors, he put up a 4.13 ERA, 12 wins (6 losses), and 122 Ks in 159 innings. Not bad at all for a young pitcher in his first full season. In 2008, before he got hurt, he had a 3.95 ERA, 123 Ks, in 151 innings. Nice improvement. All in all, he was a good pitcher with all signs pointing to him getting better as he gained experience/maturity.

Second, how old is he? Marcum is 28. His young age is a huge positive as there is a difference between a 35 year old coming back from TJ surgery and a 20 something. At this age, Marcum can recover fully from the surgery and have time to get to where he was and beyond.

Lastly, how does the team view him? It was announced on Monday that Marcum was going to be the opening day starter. They must view him as healthy and pitching well. I guess they like that he has only given up one hit in 5 innings so far this spring. To be fair, they have a fairly inexperienced staff, so Marcum, with his experience before his injury, has a leg up. Still it's a good sign.

So when we put this all together, what do we get? We get a nice pitcher that won't be targeted very much on draft day. Yes a sleeper ace. When a guy disappears for a year (due to injury or whatever) he drops off of a lot people's radar. That is going to be the case with Marcum. But, now that he's healthy, he should not be overlooked. He has shown that when he is healthy, he can pitch very well in the majors. I think a 4.00 ERA. 130 Ks, and double digit wins is well within reason for him this year. Remember, it's picks like this, late in the draft, that really make or break a fantasy team.

-Scout Monkey

( scout_monkey@gmx.com)

What You Know: Rick Porcello

My dad told me a story one time about how he was taken out to a fancy restaurant for a business dinner. My dad, not accustom to eating at fancy restaurants, figured he would order something he never had before, you know, something fancy. So he looked over the menu and decided on the squab. When the meal arrived, my dad looked down at his plate and disappointingly saw just one very small cooked bird. He ate it, it was good, but he was still really hungry as the portion was so small. He looked to the guy next to him (who had ordered a thick steak) and the guy, understanding my dad's predicament, leaned over and told my dad, 'Next time, go with what you know.'

Going with what you know can keep you from a bad decision. This is how I feel when I think of Rick Porcello, SP, Detroit Tigers. You know what you are going to get, a good pitcher.

Maybe I'm jumping the gun here as he is only 21, with just one year of big league experience. But, as a 20 year old rookie, he held his own. He had a sub 4.00 ERA, 14 wins and 89 Ks. On top of that, as the season went on, he got stronger. In spring training, he has picked up where he left off - being solid.

Draft charts (mixed league) have Porcello around the 50 spot as to where he ranks with other pitchers. I disagree. Although he is NOT an elite pitcher, what he gives is very valuable. He is a guy who is already good and will probably just improve on his numbers from last year. This makes him a solid pitcher with upside (hopefully in the strikeout department). He will not hurt your roto league team, and the consistency he gives is awesome in a points league. There is a comfort factor with Porcello as you already know he will not be a bust. I put him around the 35 mark in my pitcher rankings.

Now, you may choose to order the fancy, unknown dish, a pitcher with good upside but also some downside (Carlos Zambrano, Ervin Santana, Jorge De La Rosa are examples that are ranked higher or around Porcello). And you may end up with a good choice. But they may also end up leaving you hungry. I say, go with what you know, go with Porcello. He may not 'Wow' you, but you know you are getting a good meal that will leave you satisfied.

-Scout Monkey

( scout_monkey@gmx.com)

Padre Power: Kyle Blanks

I am very disappointed that I haven't heard much about this player until recently. His potential is awesome!

Kyle Blanks looks to be the starting left fielder for the San Diego Padres. He is viewed though as the eventual replacement at first for Adrian Gonzalez (whom everyone assumes will be traded soon). Normally, you don't replace a guy like Gonzalez, he's just too good, but Blanks may actually succeed. Blanks swings a power bat and has shown the potential of a .300 AVG. Power and AVG? Yea, I like it too.

Last year, Blanks played in 54 games. He accumulated a .250 AVG, 10 HR, and 22 RBI during that stretch. Not great, but not bad. However, his minor league record has him batting a consistent .300+. Also, at 6'6" and 285, he has power to spare. 30-40 HR this year is my prediction. One other thing, he has pretty cool hair.

Granted, there are a lot of up and comers in the outfield this year, but few carry the power that Blanks boasts. As a full time player this season he should out perform most rookies and quite a few established player. Bonus, Blanks should be available during the later portion of your draft. I just picked him up in my keeper league (surprised he was available - really, why don't I know more about this kid). I suggest you do the same.

-Scout Monkey

( scout_monkey@gmx.com)

Don't Call Me 'Matt' Latos

Although I think his name needs another 'T', Mat Latos is starting to win me over. Latos is a candidate for the San Diego Padres starting rotation. This 22 year old, 6'6", 225 pound right hander seems to be close to locking up a starting job.

Latos has the 'stuff' to be a good if not great pitcher. My favorite thing that I have heard about him is that he throws around 97 and doesn't miss his targets. The phrase 'finesse pitcher' was used with him, but I don't know any finesse pitchers that throw high 90's. Tom Glavin (best finesse pitcher I've ever seen) would have been a 400 game winner if he threw that hard! Anyway, Latos is young, talented, and plays in the best pitcher's park in baseball. There is a lot to like here. So far this spring, he has pitched 9 innings, has 6 Ks, and has given up only 2 runs. A good start for sure.

What about the bad? Well, he is on a team that probably won't score too many runs. His wins won't necessarily reflect his talent. Also, at 22 years old he will probably be given an innings limit. More then likely he will lose starts at the end of the year. If you own him (and it's not a keeper league) look to trade him later in the season. Also, you can't ignore that in his 10 starts last year, he had 4 wins and 5 losses, a 4.62 ERA. Not great numbers, but hey, he's young. He did have 39 Ks in those 50 innings - respectable.

You have to imagine that he will improve this year. He likely will not reach his full potential, but can be a solid starter. I like him as a flier in mixed formats, and as a nice sleeper in NL only formats. Keeper leagues should give him a good look and probably a bench spot if you have one.

-Scout Monkey

( scout_monkey@gmx.com)

Dark Horse Rising - Alfredo Aceves

When talking about the 5th starter for the New York Yankees, you generally are talking about Joba Chamberlain or Phil Hughes (with a dash of Chad Gaudin). But a new wrinkle has appeared. That wrinkle is Alfredo Aceves (please, no pasta jokes).

Aceves has been a good bullpen guy for the past two years. Before that though, he was a starter (not in MLB). Coming in to spring training Aceves was not resolved to go back to the bullpen, he is fighting for that 5th spot. Personally, I didn't give him a chance. I was sure it would be Joba or Hughes. However, Aceves has pitched head and shoulders above any of the other candidates.

It's still early, but you can't ignore what the 27 year old, right hander, has done (and what the others have NOT done). Alfredo Aceves has faced 30 batters so far and have retired 27 of them. He has given up 1 HR and 2 singles. That's it. The other candidates seem to giving up those hits and HRs every inning (been a rough spring training so far).

So what do we do with this info? Honestly, I think the cards are stacked against Aceves. The disparity between his stats and the others would need to remain as they are for the Yanks to really have him as the 5th starter. It can be done, but we'll see. If he ends up in the bullpen, then that probably won't help your fantasy team too much, or at all. If he ends up as a starter, well then we must take notice. Whereas you would need to take a Joba or a Hughes higher then you would like in a draft (which I do not recommend), Aceves should be available late. He is worth a late round pick/flier. If he makes starter, you have yourself a nice value for a low pick. If he ends up in the bullpen, you didn't give up much. I say take a chance on this dark horse.

-Scout Monkey

( scout_monkey@gmx.com)

Joba the 'What' (Yet Again)?

By Scout Monkey, http://www.profantasybaseball.com/

New year, same argument. What is Joba Chamberlain? Is he a relief pitcher/future closer or a starter? This debate continues to rage in New York state (my current home) and around baseball.

The arguments for both sides are simple:

He's a reliever - His body of work as a reliever is stellar. He has shown to be one of the best setup men in baseball and should take over when Mo finally retires. His body of work as a starter is average, not bad, but not great. (Not that it matters, but I agree with this argument)

He's a starter - Why take a guy with this much talent and limit him to one inning? Relief pitchers are easier to come by then starters. He may not be the ace of the Yankees, but he doesn't have to be. He's a solid starter and with potential to get much better.

Regardless of how you or I feel, the problem is that this issue is not resolved, not even close. With Phil Hughes and Chad Gaudin still pitching for the Yanks, the question will linger for most of spring training, if not beyond. Your draft is probably coming up soon, and no one knows for sure what we are going to get with Joba - a starting pitcher for one of the best teams in baseball, or a reliever. Depending on your league, one of those could be good while the other a waste.

I say leave this headache for someone else. I'm not against gambling with picks, but this gamble doesn't make sense to me. Unless he is available very late, and you have a deep bench, avoid him. If he becomes a reliever (oh by the way, his first spring start was awful), he will have little value in most leagues. If he becomes a starter (best case scenario for fantasy) he has shown himself to be average. By average I mean, sporadic. He has had great outings (which is the potential that people keep talking about) but he has also had terrible outings. Put the good with the bad, and you get average. Why gamble on a pick to get an average player?

Again, unless he is there very late, avoid him. There are plenty of pitchers with upside that will start this year that should be picked instead of Joba.

Joba the 'What'? How about Joba the 'Not on Your Team'!

-Scout Monkey

( scout_monkey@gmx.com)

Catching Some Rays - Leslie Anderson

Leslie Anderson is another Cuban ball player that should have an impact in the majors this year, and he has just signed with the Tampa Bay Rays. Like his fellow countryman Jose Julio Ruiz (who is also being scouted for the majors), Anderson can play both 1B and OF. His defensive skills are excellent and he would be a stellar defensive first baseman, but being of average power, he would be a better fit in center or left field.

Anderson is 27 years old, which means he is not the typical major league prospect. He has already shown that he can play ball at a high level. Last year, this lefty batted .381 (not a typo) with an OBP of .490. Now that wasn't against MLB pitching, but in his defense, Cuba has some talented pitchers. Being that he has this much experience, it is not out of the question for him to break camp as an everyday starter. I would imagine that some AAA time would be a good thing, but even if he is sent down, it shouldn't be for too long. Overall, I see him as a Bobby Abreu type hitter - solid in all aspects, a difficult out.

When it comes to where to draft Leslie Anderson, it has to be in later rounds. As much as I like the potential here (I think the Abreu comparison is real), you have to temper expectations for the adjustment to the major league. Keep an eye on what position he will play as that will determine his value some too. He will be more valuable as an outfielder then a first baseman. It's possible that he will go undrafted in all but the deeper leagues, but he should be contributing on someones fantasy team before the year is out, likely before the ASB. If you choose not to draft him, be ready to grab him at this first signs that he has adjusted to the bigs.

-Scout Monkey

( scout_monkey@gmx.com)

Following Kendry - Brandon Wood

A talked about prospect who hasn't put it together in the bigs yet. That sentence could be used for a lot of players. Last year, that was what could have been said (and no doubt was) for Kendry Morales, 1B, Angels. He finally lived up to the hype and became a stud in fantasy. Yes, there are better 1B then Morales, but that list got dramatically shorter. And how good was it for you who grabbed him late or off the waiver wire? This year, we have someone on the same team who could do the same thing. Brandon Wood.

Brandon Wood has been the future SS or 3B for the Angels for what feels like many years now. Well, the future is now, barring injury or a terrible spring, he will be the starting 3B this year. Third base, like first base, is a position that demands attention in fantasy sports. These are positions that teams count on for production. So any starting player at these positions, even unknowns, should be watched closely. Wood, however, is not a complete unknown.

Wood's minor league stats shows great talent, with a good AVG (.280+), and above average power (30 HR potential). But in his 224 big league at-bats over the last 3 years he has only managed a .192 AVG, 7 HR, and 19 RBIs - not very exciting. But his playing time was sporadic at best, not the way to get into a groove. Being an everyday player, he has the potential to start to put it together and be the guy the Angels have been looking for. Which is exactly what happened with Morales last year.

Having two guys breakout in a big way, in back to back years, is unlikely, but not impossible. Even if Wood doesn't reach his full potential, he can still have good value as a late round pick (It's worth noting that Woods has already gone deep in spring training). He's not worth overpaying for, but is worth a bench spot in moderately deep leagues. These are the type of guys that can make your fantasy year - a late pick that produces like a high one. Learn from Morales and take a chance on Wood.

-Scout Monkey

( scout_monkey@gmx.com)

We're Still Friends - Daniel Murphy

Last year I loved Daniel Murphy. I saw Murphy as a tremendous sleeper. I saw a young guy who already had some success in the majors the previous year and who loves to spend time in the batting cages to work on his hitting. I respected the hard work he was putting in. However, he had a bad year for the Mets, and for me.

This year, my view of him has changed dramatically. But he still has value.

The Mets have already said that Murphy will be the starting first baseman. This hurts his value some as he is not a typical slugger and he plays in a pitchers park - he is not going to be a 40 HR guy, I would be shocked if he hit 30.

If he struggled last year and is not going to put up typical first base numbers, why do I think he has value this year? A starting first baseman for any team needs attention (Last year, those who paid attention to Kendry Morales were greatly rewarded). Murphy will be counted on as an RBI hitter. He will be used in the heart of the lineup. With David Wright and Jason Bay hitting somewhere around him, he should get pitches to hit. There were also some positive signs last year that Murphy was getting over his struggles at the plate. After an abysmal start, he hit at a .280+ avg the rest of the way. Murphy ended the year with a .266 AVG, 63 RBIs, and 12 HRs.

This year, I will give Murphy the .280 avg, I will give him around 20 HRs, and 80 RBIs. There is room for improvement on these numbers (he had a .300+ AVG in his first 50 games in the bigs). He should not be drafted in a shallow league, and would be a fairly late pick in deep leagues. I think Murphy can be a great fill-in for an injured starter on your team or even a UTL guy depending on match-ups. If his average approaches .300, he could turn out to be a solid late round/waiver wire pick. Last year I loved him, this year we'll just be friends.

-Scout Monkey

( scout_monkey@gmx.com)

Enter the Matrix with Big Papi

Sporting my favorite nick name in baseball, David 'Big Papi' Ortiz is a bit of a mystery for this fantasy season. Are we going to get the injury bug version, the slump version, or the clutch hitting monster? Let's listen in on this conversation:

Me: I think Big Papi has some real sleeper potential this year.

Friend: Wait. Isn't he that kid from the Keanu Reeves little league movie, 'Hard Ball'? Boy, that Keanu Reeves can act!

Me: Um... Uh... Wow! No, I'm talking about David Ortiz, DH for the Boston Red Sox. He has the nickname 'Big Papi'.

Friend: Oh. My mistake. Do you think Keanu Reeves has the nickname 'Big Matrix'? Or how about 'Big Excellent Adventure'?

Me: I'm about to be 'Big Vomit' if you don't stop. Look, David Ortiz was one of the most clutch hitter I've ever seen. He hit for high average and great power. But the last time he did that was two years ago.

Friend: How do you know this? Did Rufus come visit you with a time travelling phone booth?

Me: No, I have a memory. The point I'm trying to make is that he has had two bad years since he last was a dominant player. Although he still had 99 RBIs last year, his AVG has gone way down (.238 in 2009) and his power numbers have lowered (28 HR in 2009). But injury has played a big part of that. I think we just may see a healthy David Ortiz this year and he will be a nice surprise for fantasy teams.

Friend: Talk about a nice surprise. How about Keanu Reeves in 'A Walk in the Clouds'? So sensitive. Or what about Keanu doing Shakespeare? He was brilliant in 'Much Ado About Nothing'. Is there anything this guy can't do?

Me: I'm pretty sure he can't hit a curveball *cough* or act *cough*. Anyway, Ortiz is not going to be picked very high in any draft (unless someone is really biased). His value drops a little more as he only qualifies as a DH.

Friend: 'What do you do?' 'What do you do?'

Me: You draft him late. You accept that he is not going to hit .300, probably more like .260, and you accept that he will not be hitting 45 HRs, probably more like 30 (with a reasonable chance of 35+). View him as a classic slugger, low AVG, good HR, and good RBIs. He will never be a top pick again, but I'm not ready to write him off to obscurity.

Friend: Strange things are afoot at Fenway Park. You know, Keanu helped 'Big Papi' on that little league team, imagine what he could do as a coach for 'Big Papi' on the Red Sox. Also imagine what valuable life lessons we could all learn in the process.

Me: You make me sad. I'm leaving now.

Friend: Alright. Party on dude!

-Scout Monkey

( scout_monkey@gmx.com)

Knock the Mock

As the 2010 baseball season approaches, and just as important, your 2010 fantasy draft approaches, it is nice to get in some practice with mock drafts. However, there are some dangers that you must be aware of when you do your mock drafts. Mock drafting can be both good and bad. Read the below points to get some ideas of how to use mock drafts to your advantage.

Here's the skinny:

The Good:

• Mock drafting gets you thinking in 'draft Mode'. 'Draft Mode' is the ability to make smart decisions according to your game plan in the allotted time. This is usually not done well on the first couple of drafts, but as you continue to mock draft, your game plan and approach gets stronger. This is a big plus.
• Mock drafting gives you a feel for where players will go in the draft. After a few drafts, you should kinda know who's going in the top rounds and who will be around later. This is a good time to see who might be over and under rated.
• Mock drafting is a good time to try out different strategies. Try different things and see how your team comes out in the end. May come across a new strategy!
• Mock drafting is fun.

The Bad:

• Being that the draft is not real, people may not take it too seriously. If they are not taking it too seriously, their picks may not reflect 'real' picks.
• Just like you, others may be trying out different strategies. You could end up with a false sense of how the draft went due to someone trying something bizarre.
• Take into account how many people are in the draft. Seems straight forward, but it's easy to overlook. If your real draft is 12 people but your mock drafts are 10 people, the results simply won't match up very well. It's not pointless, as you can still see who the popular picks are, but it can't be used as a guideline for what round a player will go in.

Keeping these points in mind should help you have effective and safe mock drafts. Have fun!

-Scout Monkey

( scout_monkey@gmx.com)

'Bargain' Brett Anderson

After doing a lot of research on Brett Anderson, I have come to the conclusion that he is a middle round pick that is going to pay off. He's too young to be a top pick (22). His numbers are not good enough to be a top pick (11-11, 4.06 ERA, 150 Ks in 175 innings). His flashes of dominance show that he could perform as a top pick.

His 'stuff' has impressed a lot of people. Not only is it good, it is accurate. It's one thing to throw a slider, quite another to throw a slider that catches the black. Anderson has shown he can do this. He has the ability to strike out a batter an inning, and has the ability to minimizes any damage by getting a lot of ground balls. Nice combo.

So what is the bad news (there is always bad news)? 1) Brett Anderson is only 22 years old and young pitchers can struggle. 2) His team is not great. I think he will pitch well enough to win plenty of games, but his team may not give him run support. 3) He threw 175 innings last year - that is a solid work load for a 21 year old rookie. I haven't seen any talk of a pitch count, so he may get worn down this year. However, at 6'4" and 235 pounds, he may have a frame that can handle it - we'll see, but it's worth mentioning.

Anderson should be picked up in most all formats. He will not be there too late, but if you can grab him after the middle round, he could really give your team a nice boost. Keep in mind, some think he can be an elite pitcher THIS year! I love potential, but I'm not riding that band-wagon yet. However, he should easily perform above (perhaps way above) his draft position making him a great 'Bargain'.

-Scout Monkey

( scout_monkey@gmx.com)

Julio Borbon - Pierre With Power

Juan Pierre with a touch more power. That is how I would describe Julio Borbon, CF for the Texas Rangers.

Borbon is young, only 24, but has shown some serious talent at the major league level. Last year, 46 games, he batted .312, 30 Runs, 20 RBIs, 4 HRs, and 19 Stolen Bases. Solid. The next time Juan Pierre hits that many homeruns in less then 50 games will be the first time.

If we calculate that Borbon played a 1/3 of a season, that would mean that over a full season he would have 90 Runs, 60 RBIs, 12 HRs, and 50+ Stolen Bases. That would be pretty sweet! Can he continue at this pace for a full year? Not sure. But he will get his chance.

Texas has made it clear that he is the starting center fielder and want him as their leadoff hitter. So what we have in Borbon is a starter with good potential, a nice sample of big league games, and plays on an offensive minded team. There is a lot to like here.

I would value Juan Pierre a little higher then Borbon just because of his stellar track record, but Borbon could out perform him - especially with a little more power. Julio Borbon is another good young outfielder that can be had late in the draft.

-Scout Monkey

( scout_monkey@gmx.com)

Spring Fever

With baseball players reporting to camps, spring training games about to start, and outside temperatures creeping towards tolerable, spring is here! Officially spring doesn't start until March 20th, but I'm not a slave to what 'The Man' says, it's here in my book. However, you can't talk about spring without mentioning the dreaded spring fever.

Spring fever manifests itself it several ways, but to fantasy baseball fans it often shows up with bad decisions. How so? For those who have had their draft, or are in keeper leagues, the desire to 'play' takes over. Since the season is still some time off, 'playing' happens in the form of trades. When you make a trade, your playing. This desire to play/trade is strong, so strong that bad offers are made in order to make a deal. For some reason we forget how good this player was, or how average that player performed and we offer lopsided trades, generally not in our favor. It's possible to 'play' your way right out of the post season without the season even starting! For those who haven't had a draft yet, you are protected as there is no bad decisions to be made... yet.

The bright side is that you are not alone. This fever affects other owners as well and this knowledge can be used to your advantage. To win the battle of spring fever and maybe come out ahead, follow these steps:

1) Know your team. There is nothing like making a trade for a player that fills a position that you already have nicely filled. Trades should always have the purpose of making your team better.

2) Research your trades. Do not be quick to pull the trigger. There is nothing wrong with offering trades this time of year, even lots of them, just do not be too hasty.

3) Test the waters. Send out trades that favor you (within reason, let's stay in the realm of fair) and see if you get any bites. Chances are, the fever is hitting someone and you can make some nice deals for yourself. Perhaps target some guys who are good but didn't perform well last year due to injuries, such as Jose Reyes, or Chien-Ming Wang.

Baseball is not too far off. The fever will subside. Until then, follow closely the above remedy and keep your yourself and your team healthy.

-Scout Monkey

( scout_monkey@gmx.com)

Juan 'Not Gone' Pierre

Here is another outfielder who will be available late in your draft that can give you some good numbers. Juan Pierre.

Pierre has been stuck in obscurity while in LA because they simply had too many outfielders. The Dodgers had to play Manny, Kemp, and Ethier ahead of him. However, he will not have any problems getting playing time on the White Sox. I think it was a strong/smart move for them to pick up Pierre.

What do you get with Juan Pierre? Most notably, stolen bases. Outside of his rookie year, he has never stolen less then 30 bags (even while playing part time for the Dodgers). He has stolen more then 60 bags in a season twice. Bottom line is that this guy is fast and knows how to steal (more then speed is involved with base thieving). As a full time player, expect an easy 40+ swipes. What else do you get with Pierre? You get a career .301 hitter, a guy that should give you around 90 runs, and kick in about 40 RBIs. You will NOT get the long ball. Pierre hit 13 homeruns, not last year, but in the last 10 years total. Nuff said.

As with many other outfielders, Pierre is not a high draft pick and can be had late in your draft - hence the Juan 'Not Gone' nickname.

So repeat after me, I will fill in my shallow positions before I fill in my outfield.

-Scout Monkey

( scout_monkey@gmx.com)

UN-der-RATE-ed, UN-der-RATE-ed

One of the best words you want to hear for fantasy baseball is 'Underrated'. This means a player is not viewed as being as good as he is. This means he will be available late in your draft or even on the FA list. I have a hard time thinking of anyone who this word applies to more then Franklin Gutierrez, CF, Seattle Mariners (Although, Placido Polanco is a perennial underrated player).

Gutierrez is known for his defense, but he's even underrated with that as he was robbed of a Gold Glove last year. But that's beside the point (for fantasy). The guy can really hit. This 'defensive' player, put up a strong line last year - .283 AVG, 18 HR, 70 RBIs, 85 Runs, and 16 Stolen Bases. All of this in his first year as a full time starter. He just turned 27 (on Feb. 21) and there is no reason to think that he can't improve on all of those numbers.

Honestly, Gutierrez is not going to light the world on fire this year, but how would you like a .290+ AVG, 20 HR, 80 RBI, 90 Runs, and 20 SB from a guy you can get very late in your draft? Frankly (no pun intended), I would love it. I'm planning on it.

I've said it before, and it bears repeating, with so much young and underrated talent in the OF this year, focus your high draft picks on the shallower positions. Franklin Gutierrez is probably going to be a 'left over' that can be readily had once you fill your other needs.

-Scout Monkey

( scout_monkey@gmx.com)

Outfield On The Cheap

Nolan Reimold, the 27 year old outfielder for the Baltimore Orioles, had a great rookie year in 2009. For a first year player to put up a .279 AVG, 15 HRs, and sprinkle in 8 SBs in about 100 games is solid. Now a year older, 2010 can be a year for him to shine.

The book on Reimold is that he has a good combination of speed and power. Playing a full year, I think it would be a safe guess to put him at 25 HRs and 20 SBs. If he can keep his AVG up, say in the .280s, then he will be a great late round pick. You have to like a guy who can give you good numbers across the board, Runs, HRs, RBIs, AVG, SBs. I think Reimold can be a poor man's Matt Kemp.

We all know the big names when it comes to the outfield, and we know that if we want them, we need to spend a high pick. But with so many good young players, you should be able to spend your high picks on the weaker/shallower positions (like 2B), and use guys like Reimold to fill in your outfield in the later rounds.

-Scout Monkey

( scout_monkey@gmx.com)

The Other Dodger

When talking about the outfield for the L.A. Dodgers, two names come straight to mind, Manny Ramirez and Matt Kemp. Manny is an established super-star (although his star is fading), and Kemp has shown that he is an elite outfielder and will be for years to come. What about that other guy? Listen in on this brief conversation.

Me: I'm really looking forward to the another season of Dodger baseball! Their outfield is jammed with talent!

Friend: I know, with Manny in left center and Kemp in right center, they are loaded!

Me: Left center and right center?

Friend: Yea, how else would they play their two outfielders?

Me: What are you talking about? The Dodgers have three outfielders like everyone else.

Friend: I can only remember them playing two last year. Are you sure you are not thinking of a mascot or something?

Me: I'm quite sure. You seem to be forgetting about Andre Ethier. He plays right field.

Friend: Andre Ethier? That's a weird name for a mascot. Anyway, mascots aren't real players.

Me: You're killing me Smalls. Andre Ethier is the Dodger's everyday right fielder and was last year. I know Manny and Kemp get a lot of attention, and for good reason, but Ethier is fantastic. Lets do a little comparison.

Friend: Alright. Which do you like better, Jam or Jelly?

Me: Just stop talking. I want to compare Ethier with Kemp. Kemp had a .297 avg last year, Ethier had .272. Kemp - 26 HRs, Ethier - 31. Kemp - 101 RBIs, Ethier - 106. Kemp - 97 Runs, Ethier - 92. Kemp is much faster and had 34 SBs, while Ethier had more walks and less Ks. All in all, Ethier's fantasy value is very comparable to Kemp!

Friend: Color me impressed.

Me: Kemp is still the more valuable of the two, but Ethier is only just behind him. In fact, in my Yahoo H2H league, Kemp was the 8th best point getter (for outfielders) and Ethier was 12th. I think that he will be a steal in most leagues. Kemp will go in the top couple of rounds, while Ethier will go much later and yet perform like a high end pick.

Friend: This is good advice, and good news for the Dodgers!

Me: Glad you agree.

Friend: The Padres should pay attention, all they have is one infielder.

Me: Sigh.

-Scout Monkey

( scout_monkey@gmx.com)

A Kick to the Groin

I can't imagine how difficult it must be to be a prospect on the cusp of making it to the bigs and then your team signs a veteran at your position. Gotta be like a kick to the Groin.

Austin Jackson, OF, Tigers - He was the main piece of the Curtis Granderson trade and was going to be the starting center fielder for the Tigers. That is until the Tigers just signed Johnny Damon. The Tigers no longer need to rush Jackson, and can field a solid outfield with Magglio Ordonez, Johnny Damon, and Carlos Guillen. To add insult to injury, Damon will probably be the leadoff guy, the spot that the Tiger's were looking to put Jackson in. As far as Damon goes, expect similar numbers to last year, with a few less HRs (he is in a pitchers park now as opposed to the New Yankee Launch Pad). Austin Jackson's value takes a hit. His playing time will probably be cut some, and his position in the lineup will probably be in the latter half. You have to keep an eye on him, but his big contributions may not come until next year.

Josh Thole, C, Mets - A double insult here. Thole is one of the best prospects that the Mets have, catcher or otherwise, but with TWO catcher signings, he probably won't sniff the bigs this year. The recent signing of Rod Barajas, and the past signing of Henry Blanco shows that the Mets are clearly not looking for Thole to make an impact this year. Thole is still a good prospect, but don't even look his way until 2011. Barajas is the epitome of average (when it comes to hitting), should hit around .250 with 15-20 HRs, and around 60 RBIs. Nothing here to get too excited about.

-Scout Monkey

( scout_monkey@gmx.com)

Unknown Jose Julio Ruiz

Jose Julio Ruiz was unknown to me until recently when his name popped up in an article about an impending signing. Since reading that article and several others, I'm a little surprised that I'm only starting to know about him now. The attention he is receiving from major league clubs shows that he is definitely not unknown around baseball circles.

Jose Julio Ruiz is a 25 year old Cuban ball player who defected and appears nearly ready for the bigs. Generally listed as a first baseman, he has the athleticism to play the outfield. Not bad a for a guy who is 6'3" and weighs around 230 (Arod size). Not bad indeed as he has been known to steal 30+ bases in a season. Can he hit? Playing for Cuba, he has a lifetime average of .330 (5 years), and has decent power (I would put him at 20 to 25 a year). I think he could be a slightly stronger, faster version of James Loney.

Ruiz believes he is ready to start very soon. In fact, that is a huge part of his decision as to where to sign (which is believed to happen in the next week or so). He feels he is ready to go (expect at least some time in AAA, but who knows). Regardless of how he is listed on your fantasy site (1B or OF or whatever), consider him a very strong prospect and draft accordingly. Being that there is a very good possibility that he will contribute sooner then later, he should definitely be considered in most formats that aren't too shallow. I imagine that he will be drafted rather late due to the 'unknown factor' - be ready to pounce. Now it is true that Ruiz is unproven when it comes to MLB, but the talent in Cuba is very good, so the transition shouldn't be too bad (I expect a much faster transition then Kendry Morales).

Jose Julio Ruiz may have been unknown to you, his playing position may be unknown, and how good he will be in the majors is still unknown, but don't be scared. Unknown Jose Julio Ruiz will not be unknown for too long.

-Scout Monkey

( scout_monkey@gmx.com)

Ode to Daisuke Matsuzaka

Time to cash in on a wasted season.

Target Dice-K in your draft for good reason.

Dice-K was side tracked by injuries last year,

Now with no WBC, and better prep, there is nothing to fear.

He will not be valued too high,

others will just pass him by.

But, a mid to late round decision

should give you strength at this position.

In 2008 he pitched rather great.

Lost only 3 and won 10 plus 8.

A 2.90 ERA kept the hitters at bay,

striking out about 1 an inning along the way.

The Red Sox are good and should give him plenty of support.

15+ wins, 3.40 ERA, and 150+ Ks sounds like a reasonable 2010 report.

Despite a soar back,

Dice-K remains on track.

He should be ready by the opening bell.

Have him on your fantasy team and you should do well.

-Scout Monkey

( scout_monkey@gmx.com)

Wang Nats!

Chien-Ming Wang has signed with the Washington Nationals. It's hard to believe, but I like how the Nationals are shaping up! With the latest addition of Wang, they could have a good rotation, dare I say excellent (especially with the potential of Strasburg).

What should we expect from Wang? I am willing to overlook his unbelievably bad stats from last year and just chalk it up to injuries (9.64 ERA, 1W, 6L). If I am right, then he will be back to his old form - ace (or near ace) capabilities! Prior to injury, he pitched stongly in a very tough AL division (2007 - 3.70 ERA, 104 Ks, 199.1 innings). Now he is in the NL, still a good division, but he will now have the advantage of no DH to go up against. Also, lets face it, in general the NL is a weaker hitting league (I hate to say it, I'm an NL guy, but it is what it is).

Now you still have to be concerned about run support, but I believe the Nationals will be alright, after all, it wasn't their biggest problem last year. *cough*bullpen*cough*

I can't really say that you should draft Wang as a top pitcher (especially since he will miss at least a month recovering from surgery), but he has the potential to be that, especially if he keep his pitches down. A mid to late round pick could deliver in a big way. Do I hear come-back player of the year?

Scout Monkey

( scout_monkey@gmx.com)

Harvesting the Farm - Part 3

On the farm, some things take longer to grow then others. Baseball players are no different. Part 3 of this series is going to focus on some players that will more then likely be late call ups at best but are still considered top prospects. You want to know these names as they may surprise us this year, and should be on your radar for next (especially those of you in keeper leagues).

Justin Smoak, 1B, Texas Rangers - I must admit, I am very impressed with what the Rangers have going. They have some good young pitchers (including some real studs in their farm), and they continue to have great hitting. It's almost unfair that they have Justin Smoak. Smoak is a switch hitting 1B - ala Mark Texeira. At 23 he has nice power which should keep increasing. The only thing that has slowed him down is good AAA pitching. Before AAA he had a .320+ AVG, but it took a dip down to .244 in 54 games when he reached the Pacific Coast League. As talented a hitter as he is, expect him to adjust. Another concern is that his strikeout rate is about 25% (in AAA). Not too good (but better then Texas' current 1B, Chris Davis). Again, he needs some adjustments. If/when he adjusts, it will be hard for the Rangers to not bring him up - but they just don't have a spot for him yet. However, unless Davis improves, Smoak may overtake him as soon as this year.

Pedro Alvarez, 3B, Pittsburgh Pirates - Alvarez is all about power. It is easy to see him as a 40 HR guy. It was much easier to see that before last year. His fast track to the majors took a major detour to the tune of a .234 AVG. Not sure why he struggled so much, but assuming he turns it around in the minors this year, he could be huge in 2011. At 23, it's also not far fetched to see him contribute this year, but not likely until after the All-Star break, and even then not likely as an everyday player. With all that said, the potential of Alvarez commands our attention.

Madison Bumgarner, SP, San Francisco Giants - Of the three guys mentioned in this article, Bumgarner has the best chance to play the most in the majors. He is a left handed pitcher who throws in the low 90's (he's been clocked above 95, but did not show that kind of velocity for much of the year). He got a taste of the bigs last year with a spot start and faired well (but one start is not much to gauge). He has a chance to make the rotation, but he will have a serious innings limit (he is only 20 years old). My guess is that they will wait to bring him up and use him for a late fall push (or at least to get his feet wet for 2011). How good is he? In the last two years (AA and A+), he has an ERA of 1.65 and strikes out almost a batter an inning (8.4 per nine). You have to imagine that those numbers will not be that good against big league hitting, but the potential for success is there. Depending where he ends up when camp breaks, he may just be a guy to keep an eye on, or he may be worth a late round flier.

-Scout Monkey

( scout_monkey@gmx.com)

Harvesting the Farm - Part 2

The prospects growing in the farm systems are a must know for your fantasy team. Not all will make the majors, and some that do will not produce well - that said, some will be the next stars.

In part one of 'Harvesting the Farm' I brought your attention to the top of the top of prospects, Stephen Strasburg, Aroldis Chapman, and Jason Heyward. The next three are still highly touted and nearly guaranteed to play this year.

Neftali Feliz, SP/RP, Texas Rangers - A young right hander who throws some serious heat (in the area of 98 MPH). The Rangers could always hit, but now are adding some good young pitching to the mix. Feliz has already pitched well in the big leagues, albeit in the bullpen (31 innings, 39 Ks, 1.74 ERA). Texas would like him to be a starter, but hasn't made any final decisions. He could be a great starter, an excellent late innings guy, or even a closer this year. He is worth a mid to late draft pick as long as he is a starter or a closer.

Alcides Escobar, SS, Milwakee Brewers - Not every prospect is going to hit like Pujols, but that doesn't mean they can't help your team, even significantly. Escobar falls into that category. He is a speedy hitter with excellent defense. His defense will keep him as a starter for the Brewers, but his bat is where he needs to show he can be their new leadoff guy. If all things go to plan, count on a .280 hitter, 40 SB, and around 80 runs - there is so much potential for more SBs and runs with his speed. If you miss out on the top tier SS in your draft, Escobar should be available in the later rounds.

Austin Jackson, OF, Detroit Tigers - The corner stone in the Curtis Granderson trade, Jackson's time is now. He has been the top prospect for the Yankees for awhile, and now he is going to actually start for Detroit (what Yankee fans were hoping the Yanks would do for much of last year). With his speed and what he has shown as a contact hitter, the initial plan is for him to be their leadoff man. However, his bat has not been as consistent as one would like. He really seems to be a streaky hitter so far. If he is able to show a little more consistency he will deliver in a big way. If he increases his power some, he could be a super-star. The ceiling is high on Jackson and is definitely worth a late round pick.

-Scout Monkey

( scout_monkey@gmx.com)

Harvesting the Farm - Part 1

I could tell you that Hanley Ramirez should be drafted very high, Albert Pujols is arguably the best hitter in baseball, and Tim Lincecum is a monster pitcher, but you know all of that. I would like to help you out on more of the up-and-comers. The farm systems are ripe for picking.

Part 1 of this 3 part series is about the top prospects. May not be too many surprises here, but these are names you must know (and will know, for better or worse) by the end of the season.

Stephen Strasburg, SP, Washington Nationals - One of the most super hyped pitchers I can remember. The guy can throw 100+ MPH and had an amazing strikeout rate in college. When he plays in the majors and how well against big league hitting is yet to be seen, but the potential is there. Downside of Strasburg is that he could be a serious injury risk. Barring injury, he will be in the majors before year end, and I wouldn't be very surprised to see him on the opening day roster.

Aroldis Chapman, SP, Cincinnati Reds - After Strasburg, Chapman was the leader in hype. A young lefty that can throw 100+. Visions of the next Randy Johnson danced in teams heads. Again, when he will show up in the majors and how well he will do is unknown. Good thing about Chapman is that he is said to throw an 'easy' fastball, meaning that he is less of an injury risk. I give Chapman an outside shot at making the opening day roster, but see him as a late call up.

Jason Heyward, OF, Atlanta Braves - Generally considered the best non-pitching prospect, Heyward could contribute right away. My favorite description is that he does everything good, but nothing great. This is not a bad thing, good average, good power, good speed, good defense - this adds up to making an immediate impact. However, he is only 20 and does not have a guaranteed spot in the OF. He will battle in spring for one, and even if he makes the team he could share time as the Braves have some good options. If he gets full time play, he could be a solid player on your team, if he gets part time play, he might be nice off the bench, but would be more of a keeper prospect for 2011.

-Scout Monkey

( scout_monkey@gmx.com)

Welcome 2010!

Hello all and welcome to spring! Baseball is around the corner and it's now time to start thinking about your draft and/or the up and comers who you should know about in your keeper league. I'm here to help you along. I'm the Scout Monkey.

Question: Why listen to your advice?

Answer: I do lots of research.

Question: Is that the only reason to listen to your advice?

Answer: No, but that is the best. I do the research so you do not have to. Read enough articles about a guy and you start to get a nice impression of what to expect. Couple that with being a baseball fan for 30+ years, and I usually come up with some solid stuff.

Question: How was your advice last year?

Answer: Much more good then bad (Nobody's perfect).

Good Advice: J.A. Happ, Jordan Zimmerman (prior to injury), Joba expectations (and Sell High advice), Kendry Morales, Cliff Lee (pleaded with people to not trade him after his bad start to the season), Shin-Soo Choo. - To name a few.

Bad Advice: Daniel Murphy (way off), Kris Medlen (AAAA pitcher I guess), Derek Holland (wasn't a bust, but I had higher expectations), Mets (pretty much anything with them).

Clearly I'm not perfect, I'm certainly not psychic, but I can throw down some decent knowledge to keep you informed.

Question: How about some advice now?

Answer: Keep an eye on the Cardinals 5th rotation spot. The two prime candidates are Kyle McClellan and Jaime Garcia. McClellan has more experience and has pitched very well in relief. His four pitches can keep hitters guessing even after the first time through the lineup. Garcia is younger and has the higher ceiling, but has had only limited time to show his stuff since his return from Tommy John surgery. What Garcia has shown, though, has been very good. Usually you don't focus too much attention on a number 5 starter, but both of these guys can pitch better then the spot they are vying for (not to mention a good offense and a good defense to back them up).

Question: Is this the end of the article?

Answer: Yes.

- Scout Monkey

( scout_monkey@gmx.com)

Dancing in SoCal: Charlie Haeger

Nothing dances like a knuckleball. Tim Wakefield in Boston has had a long effective career with this pitch. Now there is a young knuckleballer in Southern California that is making the pitch known on the left coast.

Charlie Haeger has now had two good starts with the Dodgers. His first start was against St. Louis, where he gave up 5 hits in 7 innings, 3 runs, and 2 Ks - decent numbers against a good team. His 2nd start, against the Cubs, he pitched 7 innings again, 3 hits, and 7 Ks - a great start, albeit against a struggling Cubs team.

Will Haeger carry the knuckleball torch from Wakefield and have a nice long career? Not sure, but he's off to a good start.

The Dodgers have picked up Padilla from the Rangers, presumably as their fifth starter. Padilla wasn't having a great year, so Haeger may just be pitching himself into the rotation.

Charlie Haeger is only worth looking at in deep leagues and NL only leagues. He pitches in a pitcher friendly park with a good offense behind him. If he puts together another good start or two, his value will rise quickly.

-Scout Monkey

( scout_monkey@gmx.com)

Mashing in San Diego: Will Venable

Adrian Gonzolez is the man in San Diego, however, Will Venable is on a tear and deserves a little of the lime light. This 26 year old outfielder has been putting on a show over the last couple of weeks.

In Venable's last 13 games, he has at least 1 RBI in 10 of them (this includes a game that he went 0/1 as a pinch hitter) - that is some nice consistency. In that stretch, he is hitting .325, with 19 RBI's, 5 HR, 9 Runs, and 1 SB. This guy is on fire!

He is owned in less then 10% of leagues. Most of that ownership came within the last week. He should be a decent play for deep leagues - at least until he comes back down to earth. Other formats need to evaluate how their OF is doing (example - now is not the time to keep dead weight - B.J. Upton was just dropped in my AL only league).

-Scout Monkey

( scout_monkey@gmx.com)

Out with the Older, In with the Old

The Phillies have decided what to do with Pedro - he will be a starter. However, to make room, they have sent Jaime Moyer to the bullpen. Yes, in with the old and out with the older.

This is a little surprising as Pedro did some relief work at the WBC, and Moyer is not crazy about coming out of the pen. In any event, it's done. Pedro will start Wednesday against the Cubs.

I've said it before, but it bears repeating - Phillies pitchers are worth more then other pitchers due to the great offense. In addition, Pedro is not just some pitcher, he's Pedro! He has shown that he still has a little in the tank. He probably won't go real deep in games, but should rack up some wins and average to above average strikeouts.

Moyer's value takes a huge nose dive in most formats. Pedro makes an intriguing flier in NL only and deeper formats. He might even help you make a little late season and playoff run.

-Scout Monkey

Hot, Hot, Hot: Rajai Davis

In the last 2 weeks, you would have a hard time finding a better player then Rajai Davis, CF of the Oakland A's. Rollins? Nope. Pujols? Uh-uh. Texeira? Negative. For the last two weeks, you would be better off with Davis (obviously for the season you would take the other guys).

In the last two weeks, 28 year old Davis is hitting .400, 9 runs, 14 RBIs, 5 walks, 7 SB. You won't get power with Davis, he has 0 homeruns, but the rest of what he'll give you is nice.

He will probably end up being a rental for you, but ride this wave. He is owned in less then 10% of leagues (although that number is starting to go up).

-Scout Monkey

Out with the old...

The Red Sox have release future hall of famer John Smoltz. In his place, they have called up Junichi Tazawa.

Tazawa was signed in the off season out of Japan - grabbed before he signed a multi year contract with a Japanese team. He's a 23 old right hander who has been handling the minors extremely well. In double A, he had 9 wins, 2 losses, and a great ERA of 2.57. In triple A, he hasn't won a game, but has lowered his ERA to 2.37.

He has 4 pitches, fastball (low 90's), slider, curve, and a splitter. He has shown good strike out ability with this repertoire.

Boston hasn't said what his role will be for this season. He has been a starter in the minors and Boston wants him as a starter for the long run. We'll find out soon.

As with any young pitcher, you have to tread carefully. Keeper leagues should be grabbing this guy sooner then later. Deep leagues may want to take a flyer. In shallow leagues, let Tazawa show what he can do at the major league level - and let his spot be finalized (Starter or Reliever).

-Scout Monkey

( scout_monkey@gmx.com)

A Yankee Not to Own

The New York Yankees have one of the finest teams that money can buy. There may not be another team in baseball that has more fantasy relevant players. With that said, avoid the newest Yankee like the plague.

The Yanks have just completed a deal for San Diego pitcher Chad Gaudin. His role has not been clearly stated - he might be long relief (which is not too useful in most fantasy leagues), or he is going to take over for the struggling Mitre (this would be my guess).

With an offense like the Yankees have, why would I avoid one of their starting pitchers? Because Gaudin is going to kill your ERA. Simply put, pitching in perhaps the most friendly pitcher park in all of baseball (Petco Field), Gaudin has an ERA of 5.13 - bad, now he is going to what is proving to be one of the worst pitching parks in all of baseball (New Yankee Stadium). Nothing about this looks good. His poor ERA is just going to get worse, much worse.

There is talk of his upside, but until he shows it, let someone else take the gamble. I cannot think of any format where you would want to add this pitcher.

- Scout Monkey

( scout_monkey@gmx.com)

No Bull(pen): J.A. Happ

J.A. Happ owners can breathe a sigh of relief. Happ will be staying in the rotation. With the addition of Pedro Martinez, it looked like Philly might move Happ back to the bullpen (and into fantasy obscurity). But today, the Phillies announced that Happ is staying right where he is. I guess this isn't a surprise with the way Happ has been pitching. How does 6 wins, 2 losses in 14 starts sound? Oh yea, ERA of 2.80. On top of that, he just pitched a complete game shutout. Don't forget, he pitches for the Phillies - an offensive juggernaut that can make any pitcher look a little better (not that Happ needs it). Still, something must change to accommodate Pedro. If not Happ, then what? Latest thoughts are a 6 man rotation, Pedro to the pen, perhaps even Moyer to the Pen. Whatever the case, Happ is safe. Happ is owned in less then half of fantasy leagues. He may not be a top tier pitcher yet, but he's up there. All formats need to consider him (except AL only of course). -Scout Monkey

( scout_monkey@gmx.com)

Strike Three Please

If you need some strikeouts, there is probably no one available in your league who will get you more then Gio Gonzalez. If you throw out one very bad game against the Twins, Gio has struck out 29 batters in 23+ innings. More then a batter an inning is pretty good for someone on the free agent pile. In addition, he may help with your ERA too if he keeps up his recent good starts. If the guy is this good, why is he available? One, he plays for the Oakland A's. He won't get too many wins with that offense. Second, when he is bad, he is really bad. Against the Twins, he gave up 11 runs in 2.2 innings. Since that game however, he has pitched 3 solid games - against the Yankees, the Red Sox, and most recently against Texas. I guess no really good teams were available to pitch against (kidding of course, could you have a tougher stretch???). He is available in most leagues and should be considered in deep leagues and maybe in AL only leagues - if you need strike outs. -Scout Monkey

( scout_monkey@gmx.com)