Early Draft Reaches

Scout Hoffman (@hoffybeisbol) www.profantasybaseball.com seniorbeisbol@gmail.com Take a look at any draft and you will find a fair amount of reaches and steals. When you look back on your draft it is okay to have a reach or two on your roster, but you would much rather have more steals than reaches. A reach is when a player is drafted much earlier than his value would suggest he should be. There are occasions when reaching for a player is not a bad thing or cannot be avoided. If you are stuck on the turn (last or first pick) of a serpentine draft you will probably have to reach a few times to avoid being left out of a run on a certain position. Certain keeper leagues are okay to reach in as well. If your league has restraints on who you can keep (i.e, top players cannot be kept, or players are kept in the round they are drafted in for next year) you may want to reach for a young player on the upswing later on in your draft. As with any fantasy advice, it will not apply to every league. Look at your league settings, and know your leaguemates before heeding any advice. I will take a look at some draft reaches today, and follow that up with some players you might be able to steal in your draft later this week. Jimmy Rollins (ADP - 20) / J-Roll has seen his average drop nearly .50 over the past two seasons and his steals last year dipped to a five season low of 31. Rollins turns 32 this year and by no means is washed up, but I no longer see him as a second round pick. Being in the Philadelphia lineup will help conserve a chunk of his value. Last year he had the lowest OBP (.296) of any player who scored 100 runs (fun fact, the second lowest belongs to teammate Shane Victorino). He should still deliver a solid across the board line, but there are much better options as a number two pick. Jason Bay (ADP - 26) / Jason Bay blossomed in his 200 game stint with Boston. Unfortunately for Sox fans and Bay owners, he no longer has the Green Monster to take aim at summer long. This year Bay will be roaming the spacious outfield in New York's CITI field and because of this, Bay's power numbers will likely take a hit. In 2009 Bay was in the middle of a lineup that was third in the league in runs scored and outscored the Mets by over 200 runs. With Reyes and Beltran iffy for the beginning of the season it would be a stretch to assume Bay will come close to the 103/36/119 stat line from last year. With numbers closer to 90/25/95/.265/9 Bay does not stick out in a talent rich outfield class this year and certainly does not warrant a third round pick. Manny Ramirez (ADP - 61) / Which Manny are you going to get, the pre-steroid bust masher averaging an HR every 13.4 ABs or the cheater who averaged an HR every 23.1 ABs? Guess which owner is going to use a 6th or 7th round pick to find out? Not me. There is too much baggage and too many unanswered questions surrounding a guy who has talked about retirement, playing in Japan, and playing for five more years in LA all in the past month. When he is on and interested he is one of the best hitters in the game, but the early rounds of a draft are not a time to take major gambles. Pass on Manny and let some other owner deal with a summer of 'Manny being Manny.' Later this week I will discuss a few late round steals that may help you in your upcoming draft.

Mailbag: Adam Jones, Manny and More...

Believe it or not, people send me emails. I know… I was surprised too. With a Fantasy Baseball season that’s seen as much parody as this one I can see why people are in need of help. The combination of injuries, underperformers, highly anticipated call ups and of course the Manny saga have made this season about as hard to predict as which mood your wife or girlfriend is going to be in after the Grey’s Anatomy season finale. Seriously, your guess is as good as mine. While you’re pondering the endless possibilities, let’s take a look at a few emails: Question: I, like many others in the fantasy baseball world, have possession of Manny Ramirez. I know initially it seems like one has no choice but to stash him for his return, but is this really true? Is it worth saving Ramirez until his return, or will I be better off moving on? -George Coffee, Toledo, OH. George, my friend, this is an easy one. You definitely keep Manny. The only scenario I could see dropping him is if you have no bench spots at all. If you end up dropping him, someone else is going to grab him immediately. Then, when he comes back on July 3rd and blows up you’ll feel like Britney Spears watching Justin Timberlake’s “Behind the Music”. Remember, 50 games sounds like a lot more than it is. He is out for May and June. You still have the entire second-half of the season to enjoy his production. I expect him to come back with something to prove. If last year’s second-half stint with the Dodgers showed us anything, it’s that when he’s got something to prove, Manny is going to prove it. Hi, PCBScout, my High School buddies and I have been in a keeper league for 4 years now. As is the case with most groups of friends, people move out of the hometown and all over the country. We have most of our guys on the East Coast, with a handful on the West Coast. I'm wondering - do you see any advantages or disadvantages, regarding roster moves, waivers, etc., between the coasts? Thanks! -Vaughn Blevins, Yonkers, NY. Hi Vaughn, I know the feeling. A few of my friends are still here in town, but we’ve also lost a few soldiers to the lure of better weather, better pay and more entertainment options. Hard to imagine, huh? This particular question is one I had to think about for a while. I’ve come to the conclusion that ownership is the same on either coast, but might have a slight advantage on the East Coast over the West for a few minor reasons. Most games are played on the east coast, which means you have access to watching more games. Also, for weekend games that start at 1 pm EST, you’re more likely to be up and available to manage your roster before those games get underway. Other than that, I can’t think of an advantage to one coast over the other. Good question, V.B.! - Paul, I am writing in about Tampa Bay Rays Minor League pitcher David Price. I have had Price since the beginning of the season and have been offered a couple of trades for low to medium level outfielders and or pitchers. I have held out in hopes that Price will turn out to be something as special as he is predicted to be. Should I get rid of him and move on, or is he worth holding in hopes he gets called up soon? –JR K, Rochester, NY. JR, I know waiting on a guy to get called up can be frustrating. It seems like all the information you can get is speculation and meanwhile that roster spot is giving you as much production as a Pontiac plant (too soon?). That being said, I think you’re going to see Price in the majors soon. Right now his numbers are not looking very impressive in the minors. He is 1-4 with a 4.60 ERA. The good news is his strikeout numbers are still very impressive at over 8 K’s per nine innings. Also in Price’s favor is that the Rays can’t be pleased with what they are getting from Jeff Niemann, their current fifth starter. Niemann has an ERA over 5 and has only made it through 6 innings once this year. In addition to the numbers the Rays are approaching a pivotal spot in their season. They’re 6.5 games back and if they don’t start to get in to stride they’re going to be out of it before they know it. As for whether or not to trade Price; that depends. Of course if you can fill a need, or get a great value from an over-anxious owner, do it. For the low to medium level players you indicated, don’t bother. PCB, being from Aberdeen, MD, I am obviously a huge Orioles fan! I have loved the maturation of Adam Jones. He is off to a hot start (.358, 6 HR, 21 RBI, 33 R, 3 SB) and has been extremely valuable to my team. However, I have reservations that he might just be off to a fluke start and will cool down throughout the year. Although, I do not want to trade him, do you think now is the time to shop him around the league while his stock is high and get a top tier performer the rest of the year, or do you think he has arrived and should be kept? I am not in a keeper league, so next year does not matter to me. Go IRONBIRDS! –Skip, Aberdeen, MD Skip, congrats on having Adam Jones to root for. He is quite a talent. This note was clearly sent before Jones put up another 2 Homeruns on Tuesday. Our buddy Skip must have been trying to keep his Markakis in his shorts over that one. I don’t think there is any question that Jones will cool down some. He’s on pace for some absolutely staggering numbers, and while he’s very talented and I am a big fan, he will certainly face some growing pains along the way. The answer to should you trade any player is always the same; for the right price, yes! Never stop trying to make your team better. No one on your roster should ever be untouchable. With that said, I think the chances are pretty slim that you’ll get proper value for Jones. You might have some prospect crazed owner willing to part with top talent to get his claws on Jones, but most likely people are going to be offering you 3rd tier type players for Jones at this juncture. Just to give you a few names to work with, I would probably be looking for a Morneau level hitter or Gallardo level pitcher for Jones. Anything less than that range is not giving you proper reliability in exchange for the production and upside you’d be losing with Jones. Thanks for the emails, everyone and keep them coming! PCB Scout Questions? Comments? Random nonsense? Email me: pcbscout(at)gmail.com

What to do with Manny?

Manny owners what do you do? If your team is stacked without Manny hold on to him. 50 games is a lot but will be equivalent to making a big trade around the deadline. If your in the middle of the pack try to trade him to a top team for a middle-tier player. Denard Span? If your just flat out of contention, drop him and pick up Juan Pierre or a Melky Cabrera.

Paulywood?

Paulywood doesn't roll off the tongue like Mannywood, but it at least describes someone who will actually be playing the outfield for the Dodgers in the next 50 games. With Manny's 50 game suspension, Xavier Paul was called up from AAA. He had a great spring training with the big boys and has continued to play very well since being sent back down. This year his line is: .344 AVG, 2 HR, 14 RBI, 8 SB, 10 Runs. Decent all around numbers. May want to take a chance on him. Worth noting, this suspension will open the door for Juan Pierre as well. Watch closely to see who will get the playing time. - Scout Monkey (scout_monkey@gmx.com)

Manny Being A Cheater

Scout Hoffman profantasybaseball.com In some shocking news out of Los Angeles this morning, Manny Ramirez is being suspended 50 games for testing positive for a banned substance. Up until now Ramirez has not been linked in any way to performance-enhancing drugs. It has been reported that it was not a steroid, but a prescribed drug for a medical condition. Nonetheless, he is out of the lineup until July 3rd. This obviously puts a drastic downturn on Ramirez’s fantasy value, but who else does it hurt? Andre Either has benefited greatly from having Manny around him in the lineup. Since Manny joined the Dodgers last summer, Either has hit at a .320 clip with 15 HRs and 58 RBI in about 300 ABs. In the 350 ABs before Manny became a Dodger Either hit .274 with 11 HRs and 46 RBI. Some of the increase in numbers can surely be attributed to his growth as a hitter, but a large part has to do with pitchers giving him better pitchers to hit with Manny protecting him. I would expect Ethier’s average, runs and RBI to see a slight dip over the next two months. Orlando Hudson is another Dodger whose fantasy value could take a hit. Hitting ahead of Manny, the O-Dog was on pace for over 100 runs, nearly 100 RBI, and is hitting .342, nearly 60 points above his career average. You can expect those numbers to decrease while Manny is serving his suspension. The entire Dodger pitching staff will certainly miss Manny. The Dodgers are first in the NL in runs scored and that number will most likely drop without the slugger in the three spot in the order. Chavez Ravine has always been a pitchers park so I do not anticipate a drop in ratios for the pitchers, but they may miss out on a few wins. Not all fantasy hope is lost for the Dodgers for the next 50 games. Xavier Paul will be called up to take his roster spot, he is off to a solid start in AAA, but I do not think he will see everyday playing time. Juan Pierre may stand to see an increase in playing time, so those of you who need runs and SBs, he may be a good two month rental. Pierre could be pushed into the leadoff spot and bump Rafael Furcal and Orlando Hudson down a spot in the order. Matt Kemp who has been buried in the 7th hole will may be pushed up in the order and could see an increase in RBI chances. Everyone knows that Manny Ramirez can be a both a positive and negative force in the clubhouse for a team. It will be interesting to see how Manny and the Dodgers react not only during the 50 games suspension, but when he returns. Will he go back to being the force he has been for his three months in Dodger Blue, or will he revert to the guy who played his way out of Boston for personal gain. Only time will tell.