Prospect Watch: Buch in the Saddle Again

By Todd Gold ProFantasyBaseball.com Former can't miss uber prospect turned bust, turned post-hype sleeper Clay Buchholz will be called up by the Boston Red Sox to join the rotation following the All-Star break. Buchholz struggled a bit in his first go-round in the show, going 2-9 with a 6.75 ERA before being sent down last season. But 2009 has been a great bounce back season for Buchholz, as the young righty has gone 7-1 with a 2.11 ERA and 86 K at AAA Pawtucket. The 24-year old former first round pick was arguably the top prospect in all of baseball heading into his rookie season of 2007. Buchholz posted solid numbers after a late season callup, going 3-1 with a 1.59 ERA. The league figured him out and he got off to a terrible start last season and was forgotten by many fantasy owners. But it would be foolish to write off such a talented young player after one rough patch in his entire career. His 2008 stint in Boston was the only stop in his 5-year professional career in which Buchholz has posted an ERA above 4.00, and he has been well below 3.00 over the past two season of minor league ball. Buchholz has the tools to succeed in the majors and now will get a chance to do so again. He is a must-add in nearly all fantasy formats. Todd Gold is a first-year professional baseball scout and a sports junkie who enjoys taking his friends' hard earned money in fantasy leagues...and helping his readers do the same. You can contact him here.

Prospect Watch: Mazzaro Dazzles Yet Again

By Todd Gold ProFantasyBaseball.com Oakland Athletics GM Billy Beane has quietly been building up a ridiculously talented reserve of young arms. Brett Anderson and Trevor Cahill were the marque names of the group, Josh Outman has been productive to this point but it doesn't end there...and there seems to be no end in sight. The latest young A's hurler to emerge onto the scene is Vin Mazzaro. The 22-year old righty Mazzaro has made an immediate impact, tossing 7.1 shutout innings in his second big league start this afternoon to extend his scoreless streak to 13.2. 2 starts and 2 wins, it doesn't get any better than that. There hadn't been as much buzz surrounding Mazzaro's ascension to The Show due to all of the other big name prospects around baseball that have been making their debuts the past few weeks in addition to the fact that Vin has been a bit under the radar, pitching in the shadows of fellow A's hurlers Anderson and Cahill. Mazzaro was solid in his debut, but many saw his 4 BB and just one K as an indication that he would not be able to continue skating by. Today Mazzaro responded by not issuing a single walk, striking out 4 and holding the Orioles to just 4 hits over 7.1 innings. At this point it is getting hard to ignore what the young sinkerballer has done to this point, and he is worth heavy consideration, if not a roster spot in most leagues. The downside is that Mazzaro is a groundball pitcher and won't rack up a great deal of strikeouts (44 K in 59.2 IP at AAA earlier this season) and he will be at the mercy of his defense. But quality SPs are difficult to come by and Mazzaro has the pedigree as a 3rd round pick out of high school in 2006 followed by a stellar minor league career and now a pair of excellent big league starts. Todd Gold is a first-year professional baseball scout and a sports junkie who enjoys taking his friends' hard earned money in fantasy leagues and helping his readers do the same. You can contact him here.

Prospect Watch: Pirate Treasure

By Todd Gold ProFantasyBaseball.com Today's trade of Nate McClouth from the Pirates to Atlanta affects fantasy leagues in many ways. The obvious is that it adds value to McClouth, but it also clears a path for elite prospect Andrew McCutcheon, who will be called up to fill the void left in Center Field. McCutcheon was the 11th overall pick in the 2005 draft, and the 22 year-old has had a stellar minor league career and is very highly regarded as a Major League prospect. McCutcheon has always been a speed demon, swipping 34 bases at AAA Indianapolis last season. But as he has matured physically, he has begun to develope some power as well. To date McCutcheon has posted a career best .493 Slugging Percentage so far this season. McCutcheon is worth a speculative add in nearly all formats, and a must-have in NL only or keeper leagues. The upside is enormous with McCutcheon, and with no threat to job security, it appears that Andrew will be given a very long leash. Todd Gold is a first-year professional baseball scout and a sports junkie who enjoys taking his friends' hard earned money in fantasy leagues and helping his readers do the same. You can contact him here.

Trade Target: Go Fish

By Todd Gold ProFantasyBaseball.com One year ago today Chien-Ming Wang was 6-1 with a 2.90 ERA and looked to be an early contender for the Cy Young award. At the same time CC Sabathia was 2-5 with a 6.55 ERA. Obviously it is still way too early to jump to conlusions about any player, especially starting pitchers. I am not here to remind you to hang onto your slumping stars, but rather tip you off to one that you should steal away from a panicked opponent. There are many obvious buy low options out there, including the afore-mentioined CC Sabathia, Jimmy Rollins and Josh Hamilton just to scratch the surface. But the one that should have the best ripoff potential of all is Ricky Nolasco. The Marlins' ace currently has owners frustrated and should come on the cheap thanks to an atroscious 7.78 ERA. Nolasco's current Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP), which is what a hurlers ERA SHOULD be is at a slightly disappointing but solid 4.34 (a full explanation of FIP can be found here). It is important to note that Nolasco got off to a slow start last year by posting a 5.79 ERA in April, before settling down and posting excellent totals the rest of the way (6.29 career ERA in April). Now is the time to buy low on Nolasco, as his most recent start was a 3.2 inning disaster in which he allowed 8 earned runs. That should be enough to give frustrated owners on the ledge the nudge they need to give away a pitcher who was typically drafted ahead of Zack Greinke, Derek Lowe and Josh Johnson. Ready, aim....fire those lowball offers now. Todd Gold is a first-year professional baseball scout and sports junkie who enjoys taking his friends' hard earned money in fantasy leagues and helping his readers do the same. You can contact him here.

Fowler Lighting Basepaths on Fire

By Todd Gold ProFantasyBaseball.com Dexter Fowler was feeling good tonight against the San Diego Padres. And so are his fantasy owners, as the Rockies rookie swiped FIVE bases in the first 4 innings while going 2-for-2 with a walk and 3 runs. Normally I would wait for the game to end to give you his final line, but time is of the essence; PICK HIM UP RIGHT NOW! Coming into 2009 Dexter Fowler had very limited (and unsucessful) big league experience, so it is understandable that Colorado's top prospect went undrafted in a lot of fantasy leagues. The fact that the current National League leader in Stolen Bases is still unowned in 91.6% of ESPN.com leagues is not. If you are in a league where the stud 23-year old Rockies leadoff man is available, well, you know what to do. Chris Farino of this very site tipped our readers off to this kid's talent earlier this young season, you can read it here. Fowler has been a speed demon throughout his professional career, swiping at least 20 bags in each of the past 3 seasons in the Rockies organization. Fowler also shows some pop and will hit for a nice average (or OBP) with the sweet swing he wields from either side of the plate (though he is better from the right side). While it is early, it is quite possible that Fowler will win the NL Stolen Base crown and perhaps contend for Rookie of the Year. Todd Gold is a first-year professional baseball scout and a sports junkie who enjoys taking his friends' hard earned money in fantasy leagues and helping his readers do the same. You can contact him here.

The Z-mann Cometh

By Todd Gold ProFantasyBaseball.com While the Nationals' late inning woes have left D.C. area sports fans thinking this season is more of the same, the truth is that the Nats feature a solid farm system with young talent on the way. For fantasy owners, the future is now, as today the struggling Nationals announced that their top prospect, RHP Jordan Zimmermann has been called up from AAA Syracuse and will take the ball for his Major League debut tomorrow night against the Braves. Zimmermann was all the buzz in fantasy circles this spring when he started out with 14+ shutout innings in Spring Training. Zimmermann's spring performance was impressive but the Nationals brass felt that the 22-year old who started 2008 in A-ball would benefit from a cup of coffee at the AAA level. After a disastrous start to the season, Washington has decided that one AAA start is sufficient. Zimmermann's minor league track record is solid; 15-5 with a 2.74 ERA with 205 K ( 10.1 K/9) to 65 BB (3.15 K/BB) over 187 innings. There is the obvious question to consider: are the Nationals rushing him? Perhaps, Zimmermann made just 35 starts in his first three professional seasons. But that does not necessarily mean he can't be a productive fantasy player as soon as tomorrow night. Having not seen the guy pitch, I will defer to the scouting reports. Here is what Baseball America's 2009 Prospect Handbook has to say about Zimmermann: "Zimmerman is a rare pitcher who projects to have four average or better offerings in the majors. He attacks hitters with a 90-94 mph four-seam fastball that occasionally touches 95. It's a heavy fastball with riding action, and he commands it very well to both sides of the plate, evoking Curt Schilling. Zimmerman also mixes in a sinking two-seamer around 90 mph. He holds his velocity very deep into games, works quickly and pounds the strike zone. His slider was his No. 2 pitch in college, but the Nationals wanted him to focus more on tightening his curveball early in his pro career. As a result, he has added power to the curve, which now sits at 75-78 mph and rates as a fringe-average offering, projecting as a solid-average or a tick above. His tight, hard-breaking 84-87 slider is mostly average now but has its moments as a plus pitch, and his straight changeup isn't far from being average." What this scouting report and Zimmermann's track record (especially this spring) tell us is that while he is raw, he has the natural ability and versatility to get out of difficult situations, even when he does not have his best stuff. In deep leagues Zimmermann is worth a speculative pickup right now, though in shallow leagues it is perhaps wise to wait and see how he fares against big league hitters. At this point Trevor Cahill (OAK), Brett Anderson (OAK), Rick Porcello (DET) and Ricky Romero (TOR) all look like better options among rookie SPs, but if they are all unavailable and you are in the market for a starter, Zimmermann could be a nice addition. Todd Gold is a first-year professional baseball scout and sports junkie who enjoys taking his friends' hard earned money in fantasy leagues and helping his readers do the same. You can contact him here.

Snide Remarks

By Todd Gold ProFantasyBaseball.com One of the best kept secrets in baseball right now is just how good Blue Jays rookie OF Travis Snider already is. Snider is rated as not only the best prospect in Toronto's organization, but one of the top 10 prospects in all of baseball. In Baseball America's 2009 Prospect Handbook, Will Lingo had Snider at #7, each of the 6 players ahead of him are currently still in the minors. To this point Snider is hitting .286 with a HR and 3 XBH in his first 4 games this year. In his previous big league experience last September Snider hit .301 with a pair of homers in 73 ABs. The downside to Snider is that he has yet to draw a walk this year, and is a bit of a free swinger, so his value in OBP leagues is diminished a bit. The Jays' top pick in the 2006 draft struggles a bit against lefties, thus making him a backup OF to be used against RHP opponents for now, with the potential of developing into a very good power hitter as the season goes on. In keeper leagues Snider is a must-grab, having more than held his own as the AL's youngest player last season.

To Helton and Back

By Todd Gold ProFantasyBaseball.com

"Helton is swinging the bat as well as he has in years." -Rockies GM Dan O'Dowd

In a couple of years from now VH1 will finally have themselves a viable “new” show idea (it happens once in a while): "Remember the 00's." They won’t spend too much time discussing the hitting prowess of Colorado Rockies slugger Todd Helton's exploits in the first 7 years of the decade, they will be too busy with Britney’s headshaving meltdowns, American Idol, and Bushisms such as “I know the human being and fish can coexist peacefully.” But hardcore baseball fans and fantasy enthusiasts alike realize just what Helton once was to baseball at the turn of the century.

Though it hasn't been that long since 35 year-old Helton was one of the elite players in the game, the fact that he did it in the relative obscurity of an oft-empty Coors Field makes it seem like an eternity has passed since Helton was one of the most feared hitters on the planet. Well, that and the ZZ Top goatee he now sports can play tricks on the memory. What many fantasy owners may not realize is that Helton has posted an AVG better than .300 and an OBP better than .400 in 10 of the past 11 years, and has appeared in at least 144 games for 10 straight years before a degenerative back condition cut his 2008 campaign short.

While the bad back has sapped Helton of the home run power he displayed during his prime, he has evolved into a savvy veteran hitter with an exceptional plate approach. Helton drew the second most walks In baseball in 2007, contributing to his .434 OBP (good for 2^nd best in baseball). Not only did Helton post an incredible OBP, his 24.1% line drive percentage in 2007 suggests that his .345 BABIP (.005 points higher than his career average) was not a fluke, but rather the .295 BABIP while playing through pain last season was. After a successful back surgery in September last year, Helton claims to be feeling the best he has in years: “Every game I play, (the doubt) goes away.” Sure, this is what everyone coming back from an injury claims, but Helton’s stats this spring should make fantasy owners' doubts go away as well. Currently, Helton is hitting .448 with 4 Home Runs and 12 RBIs in 11 games this spring.

Keep in mind, spring stats tend to be insignificant for many reasons so you can’t simply expect him to continue mashing balls over the fence at this pace. But what you can expect is that so long as he stays healthy, Todd Helton will be a productive hitter…a productive hitter who plays half of his games in Coors Field at that. Obviously you don’t want to start the season with Helton at the top of your teams’ depth chart at 1B (unless you are in an extremely deep league), and depending on your league he may not even warrant a draft pick. But he is at the very least an interesting player worth keeping an eye on in shallow leagues and a serviceable backup or platoon partner in deeper leagues worthy of one of your very last picks (especially in OBP leagues). If Helton does find his way to the trainer’s room this season (which is admittedly quite likely given the nature of his degenerative back condition) you can easily cut your losses, having invested very little in a high upside player. Should Helton defy the odds and play a full season he will provide excellent value. I always say that high-upside late round picks don’t have to be young.

Todd Gold is a first year professional baseball scout and sports junkie who enjoys taking his friends' hard earned money in fantasy leagues and helping his readers do the same. You can contact him here.

Clogging the Bases: Dusty Baker's Nightmare

By Todd Gold ProFantasyBaseball.com "Clogging up the bases isn't that great to me." -Reds Manager Dusty Baker You can debate about the importance of on base percentage (OBP) in baseball until you are blue in the face, but go do so elsewhere. This is a fantasy baseball site, and as such we know exactly how important OBP is to a team in leagues that use the stat as one of its categories. This article is for those of you who are in such a league. Just going out on a limb here; Dusty Baker (pictured to the right) does not participate in such a league. The wisdom of his stance that OBP is overrated belongs in a different article on a different site, though I can't help but wonder if those toothpicks he is always chewing on contain lead. While good hitters who have high batting averages (AVG) tend to also have high OBPs, there are certain players (especially those of the "three true outcomes" variety) whose value is increased in these sorts of leagues. Below is a list of the 5 players who gain a lot of value from using OBP instead of AVG, as well as a list of 5 players whose value is diminished. Stock up: Adam Dunn (1B/OF WAS) The Big Donkey is the poster boy of the Three True Outcomes club. In leagues that use batting average, Dunn is a nice and productive player, but his .247 career average is a cancer. While Dunn doesn't rack up a whole lot of hits, he does manage to hit a ton of home runs...40 or more in each of the past 5 seasons. Dunn also draws a ton of walks. In fact, Dunn led the majors with 122 free passes last season, contributing to his .386 OBP (which ranked 9th best in the NL) in spite of a very low AVG. Dunn goes from being a HR specialist to a 4-category stud if your league uses OBP instead of AVG. Can you believe this guy used to play for Dusty Baker? It is amazing that there was no Spreewell-Carlisimo type of blowup. It may be worth mentioning that Dunn's OBP in 2008 was .373 in Cincy (with Baker as his Manager) and .417 in Arizona after a late season trade, although the small sample size in Arizona may be a reason for the big uptick (though there may be something to it). Jack Cust (OF OAK) Cust is a poor man's Adam Dunn, and is a great late round steal for those of you in OBP leagues. Also, with the additions of Matt Holliday, Jason Giambi and Orlando Cabrera in Oakland, Cust should see an increase in runs and RBI. Cust's .239 career average makes him barely servicable in standard formats, but if your league uses OBP as a category, then his career clip of .382 makes him a low-cost asset. Cust's overall line from last season (77 R, 33 HR, 77 RBI, .375 OBP) was quite similar to that of Vladimir Guerrero (85 R, 27 HR, 91 RBI, .365 OBP), though Cust did play in 5 more games than Vlad (148-143). Will Cust be as good as Guerrero again in 2009? Probably not, but he will (almost certainly) be an exceptional value as a late round pick. Don't worry about his almost 200 strikeouts (unless that is one of your league's categories as well) or his apallingly bad defense, Cust hits bombs, gets on base and should see more RBI opportunities this season. Jason Giambi (1B OAK) Jason Giambi returns to his old stomping grounds in Oakland where he was the 2000 AL MVP. A move to a weaker lineup, pitcher friendly park coupled with another year on the odometer are all concerns for the 38 year-old Giambi's outlook in 2009. All that said, Giambi will come quite cheap as a late round pick/auction steal as a result. While Giambi's .286 career average is good, his .408 career OBP is exceptional. Even with a decline, Giambi should hit close to 30 HRs with an OBP in the .370 range. Pretty good value for a guy whose ADP in Yahoo! leagues is 227.2 (19-20th round). Interesting fact: Jason Giambi has hit at least 30 HR in every season in which he appeared in more than 83 games over the past 10 seasons (this has happened 8 of the last 10 years). Who says that late-round, high-upside sleepers have to be young? Carlos Pena (1B TB) Pena is an extremely interesting fantasy player. As I noted in an earlier column; Pena mashes RHPs with the best in the business, but struggles severly against southpaws. Pena is best used as a platoon player against right handed pitchers, but he also is a guy who benefits from league settings that utilize OBP rather than AVG. Pena's OBP was a robust .377 last year, down a bit from the .411 mark he set in 2007 (a broken hand suffered in June was a factor). But against RHPs, Pena's OBP was .418. If your league uses OBP (and allows you to change your lineup daily), take Pena and a guy like Giambi late and if you play the matchups correctly (Pena vs righ handed starters, Giambi on the other days) you should get similar production to a guy like Justin Morneau. Even if your league uses weekly lineup changes, Pena is still an underrated talent in OBP leagues. Albert Pujols (1B StL) Sure, it is just icing on the cake but somehow Pujols' value actually goes UP in OBP leagues (from arguably the best to simply the best). Not that Pujols' .357 AVG last year was anything to sneeze at, but his .462 OBP was off the charts. The fact is that Pujols is the best hitter on the planet and opposing pitchers are well aware of this fact. Add in that the Cardinals lineup does not offer the greatest protection and Pujols draws a lot of walks, leading to a gaudy OBP. If your league uses AVG, it might be a good idea to take Pujols with the 1st overall pick, if your league uses OBP then you would be an absolute FOOL not to. Stock down: Jose Lopez (2B SEA) Lopez is a nice sleeper in standard formats, but his .322 OBP last year was nothing to write home about. In leagues that use AVG Lopez is underrated (.297 80 R, 17 HR, 89 RBI, 6 SB as a 2B was quite solid last year), but in OBP leagues then he gets the proper amount of street cred. Bengie Molina (C SF) Molina is one of the many productive catchers who can be had on the cheap that make drafting Mauer, McCann or Martin early on a waste. But his value is diminished if your league uses OBP isntead of AVG because Molina doesn't walk much. Molina received just 19 free passes last year, leading to a pedestrian .322 OBP in spite of a solid .292 AVG. It is still wise to wait on a catcher, but if your league uses OBP then Chris Ianetta is your man (.390 OBP in '08). Placido Polanco (2B DET) In OBP leagues you should just not even bother with Polanco. His one fantasy attribute is his AVG (which is a highly volatile stat), but in spite of his .309 AVG last season, Polanco posted an OBP of just .350 (not bad, but with that kind of AVG you would expect more). Polanco doesn't hit for power or steal a lot of bases, or drive in many runs. His value is derived from a consistently high AVG and 2B eligibility, take away the AVG and he just fills a roster spot (albeit at a scarce position). You can find better, do so. Carl Crawford (OF TB) Crawford's performance was down all-around last year due to injury. While the 27 year-old stud is poised for a nice rebound season, his OBP is lower than you'd like to see from a guy you spend your 2nd or 3rd round pick (or a lot of money at an auction) on. He'll improve upon his embarassing .319 mark last year, but realistically you should expect something in the neighborhood of .340. In OBP leagues, Crawford is still a speed demon who will give you a chance to contend in the SB category and score a lot of runs with the occasional dinger thrown in, but he isn't the same 5-category stud that he is in league's that use AVG. Miguel Tejada (SS HOU) Miggy prefers to earn his way on base. That is fine, he is still an excellent hitter, but his OBP is a bit of a detriment to fantasy teams. Tejada hit .283 last season, nice, but his .313 OBP was pretty bad. Factor in rapidly declining HR totals (24, 18, 13 over the past 3 years) and age (whatever age he really is) and Tejada is a guy I would suggest avoiding in spite of the lowered price tag. Post-Script Notice anything interesting about the positions that these guys play? The five guys whose stock is increased in OBP leagues are either 1B or OF (Dunn is both) while the guys whose stock decreases with the switch from AVG to OBP play scarcer positions (with the exception of Crawford). So leagues that use OBP may be more conducive to a positional scarcity draft strategy, as you can find underrated 1B and OFs later in the draft. **Special thanks to the fine folks at FanGraphs for their excellent work. I cannot say enough about the quality of free statistical content they provide.** Todd Gold is a first-year professional baseball scout and a sports junkie who enjoys taking his friends' hard earned money in fantasy baseball leagues and helping his readers do the same. You can contact him here.

Store Brand Production

By Todd Gold ProFantasyBaseball.com Superstar athletes don't like to share the spotlight and most of them eat real Cheetos rather than Cheeze-Puffz. But in fantasy sports you can shop a player around the league or bench him without worrying about the consequences on team chemistry or player morale, and who accumulates your numbers isn't as important as how many. Fantasy baseball uses the STATS of real baseball players, but essentially each one is nothing more than a set of numbers. Associating a name brand with those numbers tends to skew fantasy owners' perceptions of what each set of stats is. For example, before breaking his hand a month before the end of the season, Carlos Lee was having another monster season and carrying fantasy teams. Here was his line: 436 AB, 61 R, 28 HR, 100 RBI, 4 SB, .314 AVG Its no surprise that El Caballo is being snatched up early in drafts this season (ADP: 30.2) Lee put up yet another monster season last year, and is widely expected to do more of the same in 2009. So, if you want excellent production in the OF you can draft Carlos Lee in the 2nd or 3rd round...OR, if your league settings have enough bench spots to justify it, you can platoon two players who have consistently excelled against either left handed or right handed pitching, while struggling against the others. Instead you can address a more shallow position in the early rounds and make up for it by grabbing a solid platoon later. Building a Monster Masher Most league settings do not make a platoon easy or desirable. But a roto league with a lot of bench spots no maximum number of games played for hitters makes this a great way squeeze every bit of production from your players. The downside to this that you have fewer pitchers on your staff, but since you are getting ridiculous production from spots in your lineup without using a high draft pick you can afford to take a bonafide ace or two in the earlier rounds. Normally, I like to wait on all pitchers because they are less predictable/consistent on the whole and there are always a lot of good ones left after round 10. But a lot of good fantasy baseball players do this, so if you are in a tough league where you can platoon your way to offensive dominance you can grab a Jake Peavy or a Brandon Webb type in the 5th or 6th round to compensate for using a smaller staff. Just be sure to work the waiver wire effectively throughout the season and you can overcome utilizing less innings from your pitching staff if they put up incredible ERA and WHIP totals, a high number of K/9. However, the most effective way to platoon is with a postion like 1B and your Util spot with 4 players. James Loney vs RHP: 426 AB, 52 R, 9 HR, 62 RBI, 6 SB, .305 AVG Billy Butler vs LHP: 144 AB, 25 R, 8 HR, 27 RBI, 0 SB, .340 AVG Combined, these two players who are generall drafted in the 16th and 19th rounds produced similar numbers to those of 6th rounder Garret Atkins (is 3B eligibility THAT valuable?). Garret Atkins: 611 AB, 86 R, 21 HR, 99 RBI, 1 SB, .286 AVG Loney/Butler: 570 AB, 77 R, 17 HR, 89 RBI, 6 SB, .315 AVG That is some nice finagling there, but check this out: Carlos Pena vs RHP: 311 AB, 55 R, 23 HR, 75 RBI, 1 SB, .280 AVG Derek Lee vs LHP: 144 AB, 30 R, 6 HR, 27 RBI, 2 SB, .305 AVG Add up Carlos Pena and Derek Lee? Well, basically, you Frankenstein a Carlos Lee. Lee/Pena: 455 AB, 85 R, 29 HR, 102 RBI, 3 SB, .291 AVG Carlos Lee: 436 AB, 61 R, 28 HR, 100 RBI, 4 SB, .314 AVG Both Pena and D. Lee even managed to rack up about the same amount of time on the DL as Carlos Lee. Convenient. If only they played the same position, although they are all eligible at the Util spot. Ingredients Here are several 1B that can be had after the 8th round with severe lefty/right splits and the breakdown of their OPS in 2008 and career totals:

Carlos Pena (TB) ADP: 111.9 (round 9.7) 2008: .654 vs left/.994 vs right (55 R, 23 HR, 75 RBI, .280 AVG against righties) Career: .752 vs left/.894 vs right Durability is a bit of an issue with Pena in addition to his struggles against lefties, as he has never topped 490 ABs in a season. Pena missed time with a fractured finger last season. This is the only reason you can grab him in the 9th round. While healthy, Pena dominates RHPs, his .994 OPS against righties is exactly equal to that of switch-hitting Mark Teixeira's OPS against righties. Billy Butler (KC) ADP: 222.6 (round 19.0) 2008: .958 vs left/.597 vs right (25 R, 8 HR, 27 RBI, .340 AVG against lefties) Career: n/a Butler struggled in the early part of the season and was sent down to AAA Omaha in June and had to battle for playing time with Ross Gload at 1B and a hobbled Jose Guillen at DH in Kansas City upon his return. But, the MVP of the 2006 Futures Game began to hit his stride late in the season. Butler posted a line of .305/.341/.476 after his return to The Show. The .341 OBP is a bit of a concern for Royals fans, as Butler was one of many Royals hitters who couldn't draw a walk to save their life, leading KC to finish last in BB received and OBP. But that is not really a concern in 5x5 fantasy leagues. Butler will be a top tier hitter in a couple of years, right now he is a lefty-mashing specialist with upside. James Loney (LAD) ADP: 188.4 (round 16.2) 2008: .664 vs lefties/.815 vs righties (52 R, 9 HR, 62 RBI, .305 AVG vs righties) Career: .744 vs lefties/.867 vs righties Loney hit a sophomore slump in 2008, after a stellar 96-game rookie campaign in 2007 which saw Loney hit .331/.381/.538 with 15 HR and 67 RBI. Loney was successful against both righties and lefties as a rookie, but the league may have caught up to him in 2008, as he slumped to just a .664 OPS against them last season. A 1st round pick out of high school, Loney dominated his way through the minors and seems poised for a nice rebound in 2009. At the very least he continued to hit well against right handed pitching in a down year last season, at the very least he will be an effective platoon player for your fantasy team, with a chance of breaking out in a big way. Mike Jacobs (KC) ADP: not in top 25 1B drafted 2008: .677 vs lefties/.864 vs righties (54 R, 25 HR, 70 RBI, .257 AVG vs righties) Career: .689 vs lefties/.850 vs righties Jacobs has two big knocks on him as a hitter: 1. he doesn't draw enough walks and 2. he can't hit lefties. Does this present a problem for your fantasy team? Not if you use him only against righties in a league that doesn't count walks. Sure, it will hurt his run total a bit, as will hitting towards the back of KC's lineup, but he will hit for power and drive in a lot of runs and put up a servicable average against right handers. Not bad for one of your last picks. Note: Given more AB, Ryan Shealy is a good candidate to find himself on this list after a productive platoon between Shealy and Jacobs at 1B this season...or back in the minors. I don't understand KC's position that Shealy is not a big league hitter, he sure does hit like one (.301/.354/.603 with 7 HRs in 73 big league September at bats, after smashing 20 HRs in the final 2 months of the minor league season). At some point Jacobs could see a reduction in ABs, sitting against lefties in favor of Shealy, though that doesn't affect this strategy much. Derek Lee (CHC) ADP: 95.0 (round 8.4) 2008: .948 vs lefties/.785 vs righties (30 R, 6 HR, 27 RBI, .305 AVG vs lefties) Career: .923 vs lefties/.846 vs righties Derek Lee has been a high-risk high-reward fantasy player throughout his career. A talented hitter who found his way onto the DL routinely, Lee's dip in production over the last couple of years have hurt Lee's stock to the point where he is taken late enough to be somewhat of a high-upside value pick, even as he turns 33 later this season. Typically Lee hits righties much better than he did in 2008, should that prove to have been a case of an off year rather than a loss of bat speed he could be a nice comeback player, if not, he will still hit well against lefties if he can stay in the lineup. Don't reach for Lee, but if he falls into the 9th or 10th round, he is a good gamble if you have the ability to platoon him. *OPS was used because it is a good overview statistic of a hitters overall production by measuring power and ability to reach base. OPS is On Base% Plus Slugging%. ADP (Average Draft Position ) figures collected from Yahoo! fantasy sports fantasy baseball draft results. Final Thoughts If you can get 2nd and 6th round production in 2 lineup spots from 4 players drafted in the 8th, 9th, 16th and 18th rounds you can afford to use 2 earlier picks on dominant SPs to make up for the fact that you will get fewer innings from your smaller pitching staff. For example, in the Pro Fantasy Baseball Roto league I took Brandon Webb and Roy Halladay in the 5th and 6th rounds knowing that I could use a platoon situation later in the draft to make up for taking pitchers early (which I typically avoid in leagues with smaller benches and weaker competition where good pitchers last longer). I call this strategy Store Brand Production. Savvy consumers like myself know what areas you can get by with very little quality lost on store brand items, and where to smart money goes (in this case, reliable, dominant Starting Pitching...if there is such a thing). They taste the same, so why pay more?

Draft Prep: Know Thy Enemy

By Todd Gold "Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity" -Anonymous There are countless season previews all over the internet, position by position rankings and all sorts of articles on draft strategy, most written by people who (somehow) know far more than yours truly (and probably have even less of a life). So instead of giving you more of the same I have instead decided to focus on something a little more unconventional, yet equally important; scouting the opposition. You can (and should, of course) look over all of the mock drafts you want, and while they provide a decent indication of when certain players typically will come off the board, the fact is that every league is different. With a little bit of homework (sorry, but victories must be earned) then you can gain a much better understanding of how long you can wait on certain players. Skimming the Surface First, if you are in a league with people that you know then you already have an abundance of valuable information to work with (especially if you have played with them in fantasy leagues before). First, you should learn the biases and tendencies of the players in your league the best you can. Is one of your competitors a Mariners fan? Do you think that a Mariners fan will pass on Felix Hernandez in round 8? Nevermind that his average draft position (ADP) is 88.4 (on Yahoo! fantasy sports)...Mr. Mariner likely knows this is his ADP as well, and thus he will swoop in and snag him before that point. If you don't have a great interest in acquiring King Felix then this is good for you, someone else will slip as a result of this homer's reach. But, if you're like me, you think that 88.4 is waaaay to late for a budding ace who is improving rapidly at the age of 23 (he's only 23?!). In which case, you know that your going to have to "reach" (if you can really call it that) for Hernandez in round 7. [Hernandez fell to pick 98 in the Pro Fantasy Sports Roto draft...my team had the 99th selection.] This is not to say that all fantasy players are homers who universally take players from their favorite team earlier than they would if they wore a different uniform (although some do). However, if you watch one team far more often than others, you will notice things about certain players that other fans miss. For example; Twins fans are probably keenly aware that while Justin Morneau's HR total dropped from 34 to 31 to 24 over the last 3 years, he actually had 9 more extra base hits (a career high 74), meaning that the decline in HRs over the past two seasons is simply a case of line drives hitting the wall instead of going over it, rather than a decline in power. Thus, with this knowledge and perhaps a (subconscious) bias to prefer Morneau, Twins fans are more likely to select their team's slugger over Prince Fielder, even though Fielder has been taken 9 picks sooner in Yahoo! drafts on average. If you want to wait another round to grab a guy you really want and get him next time around, you are engaging in a high risk-high reward proposition. Wouldn't you feel better having an extra tidbit of information when taking these types of gambles? But more importantly than real-life rooting interests or a track record of waiting on SPs or refusing to "pay for saves," is to keep track of what each team has already selected and by extension, what they need. Nearly all online draft rooms will have a way for you to look at your opponent's rosters as the draft progresses. Looking Ahead Lets say that at the end of round 9 you have yet to grab a 2B, your options are probably looking like Howie Kendrick, Kelly Johnson and Mark DeRosa. Most likely, if you find yourself in this situation you will be one of the last owners without at least one keystoner. If so, chances are that none of those guys will be snapped up before your turn in round 10, thus freeing you to go after a high-upside guy like Yovani Gallardo or Lastings Milledge. But if there are two owners left who pick after you and neither of them has a 2B yet, chances are that one of both of them will be picking one before your next selection. In which case it would be wise to grab the one you want. Whether or not these types of gambles work out can be the difference between simply filling out a roster and taking the competition out to the woodshed. Here are some draft tips to give you that extra edge:

• Name your team after a player or team you consider overrated. This will do one of two things to opposing owner's opinions of you: a. it will cause the more casual players to associate a name brand with that player, subtly inflating his appeal (rarely) or more likely...b. make them think you are an idiot (believe it or not this can often be a good thing...more on this in a moment).

• Use the in-draft chat to your advantage. If your playing with a bunch of strangers, this is a way to gather whatever information you can. Show up early and talk baseball with them. Oh, KC Sluggerrs is run by a Royals fan? It would be reasonable to assume that Zack Greinke won't be on the board in the 12th round with this guy in your league. But why go solely off inferences? Ask him/her "so, Greinke has been pretty good lately, are you worried he might lose his marbles again?" Sure, it's a stupid question, but you'll likely get a response in which they will tip their hand. Also, you can blurt out "oh wow, just noticed that Todd Helton was still out there, oops" in late rounds if you're hoping and praying that Joey Votto doesn't get taken before your next pick. Or, if that's too obvious, ask "is Johan Santana still injured?" during your pick in the 2nd round if you'd like to try and entice an early run on pitching by implying that you are considering taking him.

• Let (nay, MAKE) everyone think you are the league's sucker. Fantasy sports are not merely a numbers game, they are also a psychological wrestling match. Owners are generally seeking to trade with partners that they can get more value than they give up (duh). So if you are the league's sucker in the mind of the other owners, you are likely to get a whole lot of people trying to rip you off. If you are more informed than they are, this can be a deadly trap to set. Sure, you'll have to reject a ton of low-ball offers, but you can sit on them for a few days and see if an injury pops up before rejecting them, but whats the harm? Personal cautionary anecdote: In 2006 I offered Jermaine Dye for Francisco Liriano about a week before he suffered a season ending elbow injury, the other owner sat on it for a while and wound up with a very good OF in exchange for a guy he would have dropped. There can be other benefits to being perceived as the league dunce, such as lazy owners not weighing lineup decisions in weekly head-to-head leagues or assuming that your Snake-in-the-Grass, Too-Good-to-be-True trade offer was made out of stupidity. Let them laugh first (encourage it even), so that you can laugh last.

• Be at the draft...FOR EVERY ROUND. There is nothing worse than missing a draft, although losing your internet connection during it is pretty close. When your neighbor's have an unencrypted wireless network which saves you money on your cable bill, you may want to consider going to a coffee shop or library to draft. Otherwise you risk losing your internet connection and winding up with Edgar Renteria on your team.

• Lastly and most importantly: ALWAYS BE THINKING SEVERAL PICKS AHEAD. Have an idea of where each player typically is taken, adjust those expectations based on what has happened thus far and whom you are competing with and PUT THIS INFORMATION TO GOOD USE.