Injury Bargains - Hitters Edition

Scout Hoffman (@hoffybeisbol) seniorbeisbol@gmail.com http://www.profantasybaseball.com/

Last week I discussed a few pitchers that are returning from an injury plagued 2009 season that are coming off draft boards at a bargain price. Drafting pitchers with injury risks is not for the faint of heart, a little tweak in the elbow or shoulder and you go from draft day genius to a GM scrambling to fill a roster spot. The recovery process for a hitter is not as daunting as the return for a pitcher.

Jose Reyes SS/NYM - The last thing you want from a speedster is a bad leg. Reyes was a top five pick in most leagues last year, and spent most of the year on the DL with a slightly torn hamstring. The best way to repair a torn muscle is rest, which Reyes has been doing since May. He claims to be back to 100% and could be a great bargain as he is currently going as the 22nd pick. If he is healthy you should see a .300/15HR/65RBI/100R/60SB line, which is worthy of a top five pick. Reyes is only 26 years old and has had sufficient time to recover from his injury, I expect big things from him this year.

Josh Hamilton OF/TEX - If you are looking for a guy who knows a thing or two about comebacks, Hamilton is your guy. Out of baseball and battling some inner demons for years, Hamilton burst back onto the scene in 2007 and put up MVP caliber numbers in 2008. In 2009 he was basically non-factor, missing time with various ailments and playing in only 89 games. At 28, Hamilton is still in his prime, and we have seen what he can do when he is healthy, but his health is not a sure thing. He is currently being drafted in the 5-6 round range, with an ADP of 53. He has the upside of a number one outfielder, but I still see some DL time in his future, with 130 games played being about what to expect. If you can get him as your number three outfielder and have the bench space for an injury replacement he could be a bargain in the 6th round.

Rickie Weeks 2B/MIL - Rickie Weeks started 2009 looking like he was going to finally put to use all of his potential. That was until late May when he tore a tendon sheath in his wrist. This is a similar injury to what Weeks went through on his other wrist in 2006. It may take him some time to regain his stroke, but could be an intriguing late pick if he rounds into form in the second half. He is being drafted around pick 200 so there is not much of an investment for the possibility of a good player at a thin position. I would not take him as my only 2nd baseman, but he would be a good guy to stash on your bench.

Finally the strikeout machine is gone!

BYE BYE Chris Davis! Been nice knowing ya! The Rangers announced after tonights game that they are activating Josh Hamilton from the DL and to make space they will send Chris (Big Whiff) Davis to AAA Oklahoma City where he will split time with Justin Smoak, until Smoak is promoted that is. Well, in my opinion this demotion was a long time coming. Yes, Davis had 15 HRs and yes he played solid Defense at first but the one thing he excelled at is getting K'd. To say that Davis has been a disappointment is a HUGE understatement, this guy has been an absolute disaster in his sophomore year. In 258 AB's Davis was able to hit 15 HRs which sounds nice but look a little closer. Davis hit 15 HRs and drove in only 33 runs which means most were solo shots. Davis had a underwhelming 256 OBP and a sub 2.00 BA after tonight's game, he had 113 strikeouts in 258 AB's which put him on pace for almost 235 which would have shattered Mark Reynolds record of 204 from last year. Also he manged to kill more rallies then start with a 221 BA with RISP. Now he did hit 285 last year so the skills are there but he was unable to make the adjustments needed at the big league level, so he will be back but it might not be till next year(Reference Nelson Cruz if you want to know how the Rangers might handle this situation). The big story now, is that the Justin Smoak watch has officially begun, he was moved to AAA Oklahoma city over the weekend which I think was a calculated move by the Rangers to Prep him for a second half call up. Smoak has been tearing up the minors From single A to AAA to the tune of a 335 BA, 35 runs scored, 8 HRs 34 RBI and a 456 OBP (200 BA and 429 OBP in AAA so far) in 194 ABs. He's the next big thing in Texas and I think he will be up shortly after the break. The Bay State Scout

Be The Turtle!

There is a classic story of a long distance race between a tortoise and a hair (or as I call them, a turtle and a rabbit). With the rabbit being so fast and the turtle being so slow, it wouldn't seem like much of a race. However, as we know, the turtle won. The rabbit started out good and then took it easy along the way since it was so far ahead. The turtle just kept going and won the race while the rabbit was taking a nap. What am I getting at? Fast and slow don't always matter. Endurance and persistence is where it's at. We are just over two weeks into the season and we are seeing some fast starts and some slow starts. However, the baseball season is a marathon. There are really good players that are not doing so well right now, there are some unknown or downright below average players who are looking like all-stars. Fast and slow don't always matter. Your approach to all this should be as follows: 1) Be patient. Heard this before? Me too. All the time. It's good advice. In fact, it's great advice. However, it is soooo hard to actually apply it. Seeing a guy on your team that is not hitting or not pitching is difficult to take. It eats away at you. Now, you may think, "There are so many players that are doing better. I'll just drop him and pick up a new guy off the waiver wire." I know I have thought that. Or a trade may be offered that could get you someone who is producing now. Don't do it! It's way too early to give up on your players. Josh Hamilton (.229, 1 HR) is going to be fine. Jimmy Rollins (.152 ERA, 1 HR, 4 RBI) is going to be fine. 2) Leave room for opportunities. Unknown/young players are going to be the next superstars. Pujols, Santana, Wright, Manny, etc. were all unknown/young players at some point. It's not a bad idea to grab a young guy who is doing good. Scout Rob had a recent article that made the point that we really have no idea who is going to be the next Cliff Lee (and for that matter, Pujols, Wright, etc.). Who is going to end the year as the rookie of the year? Don't know, but I sure hope he is on my team. I really, really hope he is on my team in my keeper league (keeper leagues make you think a little different - you look to win now and later). Take a chance on some of these young, quick starters, because they may be a star by the end of the year. With all that said, do not drop a Cole Hamels (0-1, 11.17 ERA, 5 SO) to get one of these unknowns. Be reasonable. The season is long. Star players will have star numbers (with very few exceptions *cough* Ortiz *cough*). Some fast start players will end the year on the bench or in the minors (and a few might just end up as 1st round picks in fantasy baseball next year). Slow and steady wins the race. Be the turtle, stick with your guns, and keep a prospect in your back pocket. - Scout Monkey (scout_monkey@gmx.com)