Early Draft Reaches

Scout Hoffman (@hoffybeisbol) www.profantasybaseball.com seniorbeisbol@gmail.com Take a look at any draft and you will find a fair amount of reaches and steals. When you look back on your draft it is okay to have a reach or two on your roster, but you would much rather have more steals than reaches. A reach is when a player is drafted much earlier than his value would suggest he should be. There are occasions when reaching for a player is not a bad thing or cannot be avoided. If you are stuck on the turn (last or first pick) of a serpentine draft you will probably have to reach a few times to avoid being left out of a run on a certain position. Certain keeper leagues are okay to reach in as well. If your league has restraints on who you can keep (i.e, top players cannot be kept, or players are kept in the round they are drafted in for next year) you may want to reach for a young player on the upswing later on in your draft. As with any fantasy advice, it will not apply to every league. Look at your league settings, and know your leaguemates before heeding any advice. I will take a look at some draft reaches today, and follow that up with some players you might be able to steal in your draft later this week. Jimmy Rollins (ADP - 20) / J-Roll has seen his average drop nearly .50 over the past two seasons and his steals last year dipped to a five season low of 31. Rollins turns 32 this year and by no means is washed up, but I no longer see him as a second round pick. Being in the Philadelphia lineup will help conserve a chunk of his value. Last year he had the lowest OBP (.296) of any player who scored 100 runs (fun fact, the second lowest belongs to teammate Shane Victorino). He should still deliver a solid across the board line, but there are much better options as a number two pick. Jason Bay (ADP - 26) / Jason Bay blossomed in his 200 game stint with Boston. Unfortunately for Sox fans and Bay owners, he no longer has the Green Monster to take aim at summer long. This year Bay will be roaming the spacious outfield in New York's CITI field and because of this, Bay's power numbers will likely take a hit. In 2009 Bay was in the middle of a lineup that was third in the league in runs scored and outscored the Mets by over 200 runs. With Reyes and Beltran iffy for the beginning of the season it would be a stretch to assume Bay will come close to the 103/36/119 stat line from last year. With numbers closer to 90/25/95/.265/9 Bay does not stick out in a talent rich outfield class this year and certainly does not warrant a third round pick. Manny Ramirez (ADP - 61) / Which Manny are you going to get, the pre-steroid bust masher averaging an HR every 13.4 ABs or the cheater who averaged an HR every 23.1 ABs? Guess which owner is going to use a 6th or 7th round pick to find out? Not me. There is too much baggage and too many unanswered questions surrounding a guy who has talked about retirement, playing in Japan, and playing for five more years in LA all in the past month. When he is on and interested he is one of the best hitters in the game, but the early rounds of a draft are not a time to take major gambles. Pass on Manny and let some other owner deal with a summer of 'Manny being Manny.' Later this week I will discuss a few late round steals that may help you in your upcoming draft.

Be The Turtle!

There is a classic story of a long distance race between a tortoise and a hair (or as I call them, a turtle and a rabbit). With the rabbit being so fast and the turtle being so slow, it wouldn't seem like much of a race. However, as we know, the turtle won. The rabbit started out good and then took it easy along the way since it was so far ahead. The turtle just kept going and won the race while the rabbit was taking a nap. What am I getting at? Fast and slow don't always matter. Endurance and persistence is where it's at. We are just over two weeks into the season and we are seeing some fast starts and some slow starts. However, the baseball season is a marathon. There are really good players that are not doing so well right now, there are some unknown or downright below average players who are looking like all-stars. Fast and slow don't always matter. Your approach to all this should be as follows: 1) Be patient. Heard this before? Me too. All the time. It's good advice. In fact, it's great advice. However, it is soooo hard to actually apply it. Seeing a guy on your team that is not hitting or not pitching is difficult to take. It eats away at you. Now, you may think, "There are so many players that are doing better. I'll just drop him and pick up a new guy off the waiver wire." I know I have thought that. Or a trade may be offered that could get you someone who is producing now. Don't do it! It's way too early to give up on your players. Josh Hamilton (.229, 1 HR) is going to be fine. Jimmy Rollins (.152 ERA, 1 HR, 4 RBI) is going to be fine. 2) Leave room for opportunities. Unknown/young players are going to be the next superstars. Pujols, Santana, Wright, Manny, etc. were all unknown/young players at some point. It's not a bad idea to grab a young guy who is doing good. Scout Rob had a recent article that made the point that we really have no idea who is going to be the next Cliff Lee (and for that matter, Pujols, Wright, etc.). Who is going to end the year as the rookie of the year? Don't know, but I sure hope he is on my team. I really, really hope he is on my team in my keeper league (keeper leagues make you think a little different - you look to win now and later). Take a chance on some of these young, quick starters, because they may be a star by the end of the year. With all that said, do not drop a Cole Hamels (0-1, 11.17 ERA, 5 SO) to get one of these unknowns. Be reasonable. The season is long. Star players will have star numbers (with very few exceptions *cough* Ortiz *cough*). Some fast start players will end the year on the bench or in the minors (and a few might just end up as 1st round picks in fantasy baseball next year). Slow and steady wins the race. Be the turtle, stick with your guns, and keep a prospect in your back pocket. - Scout Monkey (scout_monkey@gmx.com)

Things I Know...

And some I think I know. I know the first three weeks aren’t even one tenth of the season. It is however enough to notice some trends. Here are a few of those trends that I believe will continue, some that will change soon, and how to make the best of the hot and cold starts. I know Aaron Hill is healthy again. He also just turned the magic age of 27. He will finish the year among the top seven 2nd baseman. Most of 2008 was lost to post concussion syndrome for Hill. His 2007 numbers were solid, and with the hot start to the season, I expect more of the same. He is still available in many leagues, so stop reading this and go get him. I know Jason Bartlett is on pace for 25 home runs. He will not hit 25 home runs. He will however steal 25 bases, hit .285, and score 85 runs. Even though he will primarily be hitting down in the lineup, it seems as if Joe Maddon will give Bartlett the green light to steal whenever he wants to. The top of the Rays lineup has plenty of pop to drive him in with regularity. Bartlett is still available in most leagues and is a solid SS or MI for any team that is already set in the power department. I know Francisco Liriano will not go 0-35. In three outings, the Twins have scored a total of three runs for Liriano. Of course he did not help his cause by letting up ten in fewer than 18 innings of work. His Ks are down a bit through three starts, but I am not that worried about Liriano. His last turn he shut down the suddenly potent Blue Jay offense and then watched the bullpen give up seven runs before he even sat down in the dugout. If you can find an owner who looks at his 0-3 record and a 5.09 ERA and wants to get rid of Liriano, be sure you are in line to give him an offer. I know Zach Greinke will allow a run this year. Anyone who can march into Texas and shut down that offense has figured this pitching thing out. With the shutout on Saturday, Greinke extended his scoreless innings streak to 34. This kid is the real deal. The former 1st round pick is proving that you can find fantasy value even on a bad team. Greinke is not available in most leagues and you may have to pay a high price to pry him away from another owner, but he will be well worth it in the end. I know Jimmy Rollins will finish the year hitting higher than .133, but will not sniff the 30/30 club again. The stolen bases will be there in the end, but I do not see him with more than 18 homers. Take a look back at his career numbers, his 30 home runs are certainly the outlier, not the norm. In the Philadelphia lineup he will still score a ton of runs and get on base enough to get 35-40 steals, but his slow start may lead to a frustrated owner willing to deal Rollins for less than true value. I know Chien-Ming Wang will finish with an ERA below 34.50, but higher than 4.50. Wang has always been a fantasy oddity; high win totals, decent ratios, but very low strikeout numbers. The Yankees seem to think that there is nothing different from last year before a foot injury ended Wang’s season, but his 4.83 WHIP seems to say otherwise. Unless you are in a Grand Canyon deep league with a big bench, Wang is expendable. I know Emilio Bonaficio had a great few days last week. His blazing start had owners running to their computers to grab this Florida flyer. He followed that up with a 3-24 stretch with 11 Ks. The Marlins have several other lead-off and 3rd base options if Bonaficio continues to struggle, and I expect him to do just that. If you were an owner who grabbed him, time is running out to get any trade value for him. I know Kevin Millwood plays for Texas… for now. Texas is a hitter’s haven in the summertime, and Millwood’s ERA since he moved to the Lone Star State has never dipped below 5. I would have more faith in Millwood if his home/road splits were better over the last few years, but he has done nothing to prove that these three starts are just an anomaly. Millwood is in a contract year and is off to a hot start, so it looks like he may be motivated to cash in this offseason. If Texas falls out of the AL West race, it would not surprise me if Millwood is dealt to a contender. I don’t trust any pitchers in the hot Texas sun, so I would stay away from Millwood unless he leaves town. I know Alexei Ramirez will homer and steal a base this season. He will not take major strides and build on his numbers from last year. Early in the season it looks like pitchers have adjusted to the Cuban Missile. He is a free swinger who is buried at the bottom of the White Sox lineup, which could quite possibly be the slowest lineup in the league. With basepath cloggers in front of him and the bottom of the order behind him I cannot see his RBI or runs totals going much higher than 70. He is nowhere near droppable status but I would consider dealing him if you can get good value for him. I know Edinson Volquez will strike out more hitters than he walks. The first two outings did not look good for Volquez. The third turn he did manage to shut down a weak hitting Houston team, but still sprinkled in five walks. His ERA was 4.60 after the All-Star break last year, and his WHIP was 1.46. Ask any Cubs fan, Dusty Baker doesn’t exactly do wonders for young pitchers. He is not too good with veterans if you ask Aaron Harang. His strikeout numbers will still be high, but I would be shocked to see an ERA lower than 4.00. Try and use his recent good turn to get some value for him in a trade market.