Early Draft Reaches

Scout Hoffman (@hoffybeisbol) www.profantasybaseball.com seniorbeisbol@gmail.com Take a look at any draft and you will find a fair amount of reaches and steals. When you look back on your draft it is okay to have a reach or two on your roster, but you would much rather have more steals than reaches. A reach is when a player is drafted much earlier than his value would suggest he should be. There are occasions when reaching for a player is not a bad thing or cannot be avoided. If you are stuck on the turn (last or first pick) of a serpentine draft you will probably have to reach a few times to avoid being left out of a run on a certain position. Certain keeper leagues are okay to reach in as well. If your league has restraints on who you can keep (i.e, top players cannot be kept, or players are kept in the round they are drafted in for next year) you may want to reach for a young player on the upswing later on in your draft. As with any fantasy advice, it will not apply to every league. Look at your league settings, and know your leaguemates before heeding any advice. I will take a look at some draft reaches today, and follow that up with some players you might be able to steal in your draft later this week. Jimmy Rollins (ADP - 20) / J-Roll has seen his average drop nearly .50 over the past two seasons and his steals last year dipped to a five season low of 31. Rollins turns 32 this year and by no means is washed up, but I no longer see him as a second round pick. Being in the Philadelphia lineup will help conserve a chunk of his value. Last year he had the lowest OBP (.296) of any player who scored 100 runs (fun fact, the second lowest belongs to teammate Shane Victorino). He should still deliver a solid across the board line, but there are much better options as a number two pick. Jason Bay (ADP - 26) / Jason Bay blossomed in his 200 game stint with Boston. Unfortunately for Sox fans and Bay owners, he no longer has the Green Monster to take aim at summer long. This year Bay will be roaming the spacious outfield in New York's CITI field and because of this, Bay's power numbers will likely take a hit. In 2009 Bay was in the middle of a lineup that was third in the league in runs scored and outscored the Mets by over 200 runs. With Reyes and Beltran iffy for the beginning of the season it would be a stretch to assume Bay will come close to the 103/36/119 stat line from last year. With numbers closer to 90/25/95/.265/9 Bay does not stick out in a talent rich outfield class this year and certainly does not warrant a third round pick. Manny Ramirez (ADP - 61) / Which Manny are you going to get, the pre-steroid bust masher averaging an HR every 13.4 ABs or the cheater who averaged an HR every 23.1 ABs? Guess which owner is going to use a 6th or 7th round pick to find out? Not me. There is too much baggage and too many unanswered questions surrounding a guy who has talked about retirement, playing in Japan, and playing for five more years in LA all in the past month. When he is on and interested he is one of the best hitters in the game, but the early rounds of a draft are not a time to take major gambles. Pass on Manny and let some other owner deal with a summer of 'Manny being Manny.' Later this week I will discuss a few late round steals that may help you in your upcoming draft.