Things I Know...

And some I think I know. I know the first three weeks aren’t even one tenth of the season. It is however enough to notice some trends. Here are a few of those trends that I believe will continue, some that will change soon, and how to make the best of the hot and cold starts. I know Aaron Hill is healthy again. He also just turned the magic age of 27. He will finish the year among the top seven 2nd baseman. Most of 2008 was lost to post concussion syndrome for Hill. His 2007 numbers were solid, and with the hot start to the season, I expect more of the same. He is still available in many leagues, so stop reading this and go get him. I know Jason Bartlett is on pace for 25 home runs. He will not hit 25 home runs. He will however steal 25 bases, hit .285, and score 85 runs. Even though he will primarily be hitting down in the lineup, it seems as if Joe Maddon will give Bartlett the green light to steal whenever he wants to. The top of the Rays lineup has plenty of pop to drive him in with regularity. Bartlett is still available in most leagues and is a solid SS or MI for any team that is already set in the power department. I know Francisco Liriano will not go 0-35. In three outings, the Twins have scored a total of three runs for Liriano. Of course he did not help his cause by letting up ten in fewer than 18 innings of work. His Ks are down a bit through three starts, but I am not that worried about Liriano. His last turn he shut down the suddenly potent Blue Jay offense and then watched the bullpen give up seven runs before he even sat down in the dugout. If you can find an owner who looks at his 0-3 record and a 5.09 ERA and wants to get rid of Liriano, be sure you are in line to give him an offer. I know Zach Greinke will allow a run this year. Anyone who can march into Texas and shut down that offense has figured this pitching thing out. With the shutout on Saturday, Greinke extended his scoreless innings streak to 34. This kid is the real deal. The former 1st round pick is proving that you can find fantasy value even on a bad team. Greinke is not available in most leagues and you may have to pay a high price to pry him away from another owner, but he will be well worth it in the end. I know Jimmy Rollins will finish the year hitting higher than .133, but will not sniff the 30/30 club again. The stolen bases will be there in the end, but I do not see him with more than 18 homers. Take a look back at his career numbers, his 30 home runs are certainly the outlier, not the norm. In the Philadelphia lineup he will still score a ton of runs and get on base enough to get 35-40 steals, but his slow start may lead to a frustrated owner willing to deal Rollins for less than true value. I know Chien-Ming Wang will finish with an ERA below 34.50, but higher than 4.50. Wang has always been a fantasy oddity; high win totals, decent ratios, but very low strikeout numbers. The Yankees seem to think that there is nothing different from last year before a foot injury ended Wang’s season, but his 4.83 WHIP seems to say otherwise. Unless you are in a Grand Canyon deep league with a big bench, Wang is expendable. I know Emilio Bonaficio had a great few days last week. His blazing start had owners running to their computers to grab this Florida flyer. He followed that up with a 3-24 stretch with 11 Ks. The Marlins have several other lead-off and 3rd base options if Bonaficio continues to struggle, and I expect him to do just that. If you were an owner who grabbed him, time is running out to get any trade value for him. I know Kevin Millwood plays for Texas… for now. Texas is a hitter’s haven in the summertime, and Millwood’s ERA since he moved to the Lone Star State has never dipped below 5. I would have more faith in Millwood if his home/road splits were better over the last few years, but he has done nothing to prove that these three starts are just an anomaly. Millwood is in a contract year and is off to a hot start, so it looks like he may be motivated to cash in this offseason. If Texas falls out of the AL West race, it would not surprise me if Millwood is dealt to a contender. I don’t trust any pitchers in the hot Texas sun, so I would stay away from Millwood unless he leaves town. I know Alexei Ramirez will homer and steal a base this season. He will not take major strides and build on his numbers from last year. Early in the season it looks like pitchers have adjusted to the Cuban Missile. He is a free swinger who is buried at the bottom of the White Sox lineup, which could quite possibly be the slowest lineup in the league. With basepath cloggers in front of him and the bottom of the order behind him I cannot see his RBI or runs totals going much higher than 70. He is nowhere near droppable status but I would consider dealing him if you can get good value for him. I know Edinson Volquez will strike out more hitters than he walks. The first two outings did not look good for Volquez. The third turn he did manage to shut down a weak hitting Houston team, but still sprinkled in five walks. His ERA was 4.60 after the All-Star break last year, and his WHIP was 1.46. Ask any Cubs fan, Dusty Baker doesn’t exactly do wonders for young pitchers. He is not too good with veterans if you ask Aaron Harang. His strikeout numbers will still be high, but I would be shocked to see an ERA lower than 4.00. Try and use his recent good turn to get some value for him in a trade market.

Buying and Selling the First Four Days

Buy! Sell! Buy! Sell! Money, Money, Money!!! Ok, so I just wanted to sneak in a reference from an obscure Tracy Morgan SNL skit, sue me. Tracy’s character was just pretending to be involved in the market; you on the other hand are involved. Fantasy Sports are not unlike the stock market in that the objective is to buy low and sell high. It’s awful early in the season to be talking about buying or selling your players, but let's take a look at a few things that have transpired thus far - at the four day mark - and whether or not you should buy or sell what you’ve seen so far. Let’s get down to business: BUY: Emilio Bonifacio. This guy has popped up on most peoples radar already (for a more in depth look at Emilio check out the column posted by my colleague, Scout Monkey, from earlier this week). Obviously he won’t get on base at a .600 clip all season and he has very little power but he has the starting job, he’s hitting leadoff and he’s lightning fast. 40 stolen bases and 90 runs is by no means out of the question. SELL: Tony Clark. This should go without saying; but don’t get overly excited about the two home runs Tony hit opening day. Clark has hit 30 homers four times in his career, but hasn’t hit more than 17 since 05, which was back when he was a full-time starter. Expect Clark to continue to back up Chad Tracy at first base and not play enough to be worth a roster spot, even in an NL only. BUY: Chris Carpenter. Carp had his first start Thursday and threw 7 innings of one hit ball allowing no earned runs. Naturally you can’t expect those numbers to hold up but the former Cy Young winner looks to be on his way back to his old form. I don’t think a mid-three ERA and 180k’s is out of the question, although injury is always a concern for Carpenter. SELL: Felipe Lopez’s power. I don’t mean to pick on the D-Bags…err… D-Backs, honestly. Lopez is a solid player and actually I think he will have a pretty decent year, but don’t get too roped in to the two homers he hit opening day. Felipe has only hit more than 11 homers once in his career (23 in ’05) and averages 14 home runs per 162 games played. He might give you .280 with 20 steals but don’t count on more than 12-15 home runs. BUY: Nelson Cruz. I absolutely love this kid! In only 104 games in Triple-A last year Cruz smashed 37 home runs, drove in 100, stole 24 bags and managed to hit .341 while doing it. Clearly, he’s "not in Kansas anymore" but the Rangers home park is a launching pad and make no mistake; Cruz is for real. Expect something in the .290-30-100 range with 10-15 steals for good measure. Did I mention I love this kid?! SELL: Carlos Quentin’s performance so far. After Carlos had his coming out party last year a lot of people felt it was a fluke. I am not one of those people. Granted, it’s too early on to be worrying about anyone this side of John Lackey, but even still I am not worried about Carlos. Last years 36 and 99 on August 25th might be a lot to ask, but expect to see him finish close to both of those numbers if he plays the full season. PCB Scout

Questions? Comments? Random nonsense? Email me at pcbscout(at)gmail.com

Who is Emilio Bonifacio?

There are always young guys whom you probably know little about who get off to good starts. The biggest splash so far has been from Emilio Bonifacio. Let's take a moment and familiarize ourselves with this fast starter. Emilio Bonifacio is the Florida Marlins 3B. What you really need to know about him is that he is FAST, with a capital FAST. Highlighting that fact, he's gone 3 for 3 on SB attempts so far. When he was in the minors for the Diamondbacks organization, he was stealing bases at an excellent rate (how's 50 out of 60 sound for a season?). He struck out too much though so they focused on him getting the bat on the ball more and getting walks. They made it clear that they were grooming him to be their lead off hitter. He responded well to their direction. His strikeouts went down and his OBP went up. He was traded to the Nationals and then to his current team the Marlins. They are using him as their lead off hitter and that is the natural spot for him. If he keeps his average up, he will steal a lot of bases on a run happy Marlins team which should also translate into a lot of runs. Downside? No power. He has a homerun on the year already, but it's of the inside the park variety (did I mention that he's fast?). This happened primarily cuz the outfielders were playing shallow. Yea, he hit it over them, but the book on Emilio is that he is not going to be hitting the long ball. His positives out weigh the negatives. However, is this what you want from you 3B position? Fortunately he qualifies at 2B this year, which is more in line with the type of hitter he is. Next year though... Emilio Bonifacio is a young, switch hitting, speedster that is off to a good start (we're only 2 games in). If you have a spot on your bench, you might consider giving it too him. If not, keep an eye on him. Not sure if you will get what you want out of him for your 3B position but you could probably do a lot worse at 2B then Emilio Bonifacio. -Scout Monkey (scout_monkey@gmx.com)