Following the Offseason Moves

Senior Beisbol (@HoffyBaseball) seniorbeisbol@gmail.com http://www.profantasybaseball.com/

As we dig our way out of a seemingly countrywide snowstorm, one phrase warms my soul – Pitchers and catchers report.

Next week ballfields throughout Arizona and Florida will be filled with well over one thousand of baseball players vying for 750 spots on Major League rosters. From those rosters less than half of those players will end up on fantasy rosters, and as a fantasy GM, those are the ones that concern me.

Spring training in baseball is all about position battles, rotation spots, line-up juggling, and blending the free agents and rookies with the veteran talent. Fantasy baseball looks at many of the same things. The best fantasy GMs started preparation for the 2010 season months ago, but for those that haven’t, there are people like me who can catch you up.

One of the best ways to find sleepers and undervalued players is to pay attention to how the offseason changes have played out. I will take you on a quick spin around the league, starting with some of the players who switched teams this offseason.

Chone Figgins 2B/3B – From the Los Angeles Angels to the Seattle Mariners

- Figgins was the jewel of the free agent market according to many GMs. You will not see much of a change in the fantasy stats for Figgins after his move north. Normally you would be worried about the spacious SafeCo field, but Figgins is purely a singles hitter with good stolen base numbers, so you will not see any power drain.

John Lackey SP – From the Los Angeles Angels to the Boston Red Sox - Lackey switched coasts from one contender to another. He is going to a slightly more hitter friendly ballpark so there might be a slight bump in his ratios, but he will be backed by a more powerful lineup and a very solid defense. He will also no longer be counted on as the ‘ace’ of the staff and will be slotted in the third spot in the rotation making him probably the best number 3’s in the league. The main issue with Lackey over the last two seasons has been health, as he has spent time on the DL in both seasons. If he remains healthy he should be in for a solid year.

Adrian Beltre 3B – From the Seattle Mariners to the Boston Red Sox - Beltre is another player bothered by injuries and switching coasts. He is going from one of the best pitchers ballparks to one that favors the hitter. He is reportedly healthy and at 31 years old should still have enough pop in his bat to post a respectable offensive season, think .265/27/85. Mike Lowell is still on the Red Sox roster and may steal a few ABs, but the Red Sox have been trying to trade him all offseason.

Milton Bradley OF – From the Chicago Cubs to the Seattle Mariners - Bradley was supposed to be the spark plug that the Cubs needed to add some fire in the clubhouse and take them to their first World Series 1945. Instead his attitude and poor performance has him backing his bags to the Pacific Northwest. He is back in the American League where he had a career year in 2008, leading the league in OPS and OBP. Until he proves that he can keep his mind clear and mouth shut, he is no better than a 4^th outfielder on a fantasy roster.

Cliff Lee SP – From the Philadelphia Phillies to the Seattle Mariners - Part of a blockbuster trade this offseason, Lee is on his third team in 8 months. Normally a pitcher moving from the NL to the AL would see a jump in his ratios, but Lee only spent a few months with the Phillies. He is also moving to SafeCo, where flyballs go to die. I will continue to treat Lee as a Fantasy Ace.

Roy Halladay SP – From the Toronto Blue Jays to the Philadelphia Phillies - After years of rumors, Halladay finally leaves Canada to join the two time defending National League champion Phillies. Going to the homer happy ballpark in Philly would normally be a bad thing for a pitcher, but Halladay is special. He will continue to pile up the innings, wins and K’s.

Matt Capps RP – From the Pittsburgh Pirates to the Washington Nationals - Capps had two suitors chasing him this offseason, each offering different roles. The Cubs wanted him to pitch the 8^th inning for them, the Nats offered him the closing job, and that is what he took. In the fantasy world, the Nats job makes him relevant. He had some elbow issues last season, but he seems to be healthy now. Saves can come from anywhere and I look for Capps to a viable closer you can get on the cheap.

Mike Cameron OF – From the Milwaukee Brewers to the Boston Red Sox - Cameron will patrol CF for the Red Sox and will likely have another solid, underappreciated fantasy year. Fenway Park is a dream for a right-handed, dead-pull hitter like Cameron. He has been a virtual lock for 20-25 HR, 70-80 RBI, 15-20 SB, and a .250 average his entire career. Not flashy stats, but very respectable for a 3^rd fantasy outfielder that usually lasts longer in the draft than he should.

Rich Harden SP – From the Chicago Cubs to the Texas Rangers - Harden has the stuff of an ace, but a body made of balsa wood and rubberbands. The Cubs babied him, often giving him six days off between starts and only starting him on the road and at night. He has only surpassed 30 starts once, and never won more than 11 games. His K’s and the off-chance that he can finally stay healthy keep fantasy owners coming back for more. Just keep in mind if you draft him you are likely getting only ¾ of a season from him.

Curtis Granderson OF – From the Detroit Tigers to the New York Yankees - Granderson was moved to New York after the Tigers grew a bit tired of watching his average against lefties steadily drop over the past few seasons. The new Yankee stadium proved to be quite the bandbox in its first year, especially favoring lefties with power. Slotted at the top of a powerful lineup, he should see another year of 100+ runs, 25 HR, 70 RBI and 10-15 SB. If Granderson can adjust to the bright lights of New York he could be in for a great year in pinstripes.

Edwin Jackson SP – From the Detroit Tigers to the Arizona Diamondbacks - Jackson’s 2009 was a tale of two halves. Prior to the All-Star break he had a stellar ERA of 2.52. In the final months, it ballooned to 5.07. He ended the year with a respectable stat line, but is now gone from the pitcher friendly Comerica Park. Instead he will spend his summer pitching in Arizona where the ball flies in the summer. 2010 should end with a mix between first and second half Jackson, and ERA around 4, a K/9 rate of 6.5 and double digit wins. Don’t think of him as a 2^nd or even a 3^rd fantasy starter quite yet. Let someone else overpay for him in the draft.

Rafael Soriano RP – From the Atlanta Braves to the Tampa Bay Rays - Soriano was a part time closer with the Braves in 2009, splitting time with Mike Gonzalez. He will get a chance to be the closer in Tampa Bay, a spot that was and Achilles heel for the Rays in 2009. He has struggled with some elbow problems in his past, but was able to pitch virtually pain free last year. His high K/9 rate (12.13 in 2009) makes him a very valuable 2^nd tier closer if he secures the job and remains healthy.

Javier Vazquez SP – From the Atlanta Braves to the New York Yankees - ‘Big Game’ Javy is back in New York for his second go-round. His first stint in 2004 went so well, he was shipped out after only one season. This time is a bit different. He is not coming to be the ace; he is coming to be the 3^rd or 4^th starter. 2009 was his best year as a pro, posting his lowest ERA and WHIP and compiling 15 wins and 238 Ks. The move back to the AL should push his ratios back up to his career averages, but Vazquez should be a good source of wins and Ks.

Hold or Fold

First off I would like to send out my thoughts and prayers to all members of the Adenhart family. It was a sad day for all baseball fans to see a kid just about to come into his own tragically lose his life to a drunk driver. These things happen everyday and it is a terrible thing to drink and drive.

In memory of:

Now as for fantasy baseball the first week is almost in the books and now it is time to hold or fold some of those draft picks you have.

Hold:

Justin Upton--He is 20 years old and is batting 8Th on a part time basis, why shouldn't I drop this kid? Well first he is 20 years old and has all the talent to be a superstar for years. He is going to have growing pains but because of his High OBP last year I think over the course of 162 he is going to be a solid 3rd OF. Bench him till you see signs of life but don't give up on the kid yet.

Lastings Milledge--This is a personal favorite of mine, I know he is off to a horrible start but I still see him as a 20-30 guy by seasons end. The issue right now is that he needs to be moved down in the order he is pressing to much batting leadoff. If they move him to second or fifth he would produce more. Lets not forget he led the Nationals in RBI and SB's last year.

Ching Meng Wang--He was torched for 7 runs in 3 2\3 innings in his first start since last June. He is a solid ground ball pitcher who should not be your current staff ace. He will get you wins and decent era and whip ratios but he will not help in K's. try to get him if you can afford the hit in K's and if you have him hang onto him he will be fine.

Fold:

Cliff Lee--OK I know he won the CY Young last year and the Indians have a better bullpen this year and, the offense is improved. Well I am not buying Lee at all, I just think you should try to trade him well he has value. Cliff Lee is not an ace he never projected to be an ace and is being overvalued due to he awsome season that he had last year. He will come back to earth the season and be a solid number 2 or 3 starter and that isn't bad but you might be able to trade him at last years value if you act now. Move him quickly if you can get something good.

Brian Fuentes--I know I have put in the past that I love Fuentes, However, something is wrong. Fuentes is topping out in the mid to high 80's (which is not a good sign for a low 90's pitcher)and he has been very hittable. I think there is a undisclosed injury and he will end up on the DL sooner then later.

Chris Davis-- I know what is wrong with me, I am telling you to get rid of the next Ryan Braun, well YES! Chris Davis is over matched right now and we have seen this before in Texas with Nelson Cruz Circa 2007. Davis better start hitting soon or he will be in AAA, because the Rangers have enough offense that they feel they can contend and they will grow impatient. I can see the Rangers sending Davis down and Starting Jones at DH, Blalock at 3rd, Salty at 1st and Teagarden at catcher. Davis doesn't Provide enough in his other stats, he will hurt you in AVG, Runs, OBP, and steals. Just my opinion and I am sticking too it, been proved wrong before and for Davis's owners sake I hope I am again.

The Bay State Scout

Dont Fall Off a Cliff Lee!

What is up with Cliff Lee? Has he reverted back to his old pitching self? Definitely off to a rough start, but he is still a good guy to have on your team. I'm not a huge Cliff Lee guy, but last year was no fluke. However, he does not have overpowering stuff which means he needs to be 'on' in order to have a good game. He will be 'on' a lot more then he is 'off.' Now Texas tee'd off on him. Maybe Lee wasn't 'on' or maybe Texas did what Texas can do - mash like no one else. First game of the year, weather on the cool side, not too much to worry about with him yet. Texas has the potential to make ANY pitcher look bad. RELAX. Last year Lee came out of nowhere to win the Cy Young which to me means that if he can rise that fast that maybe he could fall that fast. I don't think that will happen. Maybe someone is panicking in your league - buy low. Lee is going to be alright. He figured it out last year and he hasn't forgotten how to pitch over the winter. Probably not going to repeat at Cy Young, but 15+ wins is a very reasonable expectation. So no Cliff jumping yet. Be patient and hope others are not. - Scout Monkey (scout_monkey@gmx.com)