Buyer Beware: Zach Duke

Zack Duke has gotten off to a fantastic start for the Pirates in 2009. He’s won both of his first two starts, most recently pitching a complete game shut out against Houston. As a result, Duke has been one of the hottest pick-ups in Fantasy Leagues in the past few days. Duke, 25, was once a highly regarded prospect in the Pirates system, but he’s struggled so far in the major leagues. In 2008, Duke was 5-14 with a 4.82 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP in 185 innings. So how has Duke been so successful this season? Through 2 starts, Duke has a .59 ERA, a .85 WHIP, and opponents are hitting just .172 against him. However, that early season success will be short lived. Duke has been extremely lucky with a .208 Batting Average on Balls in Play-a rate well off his career norm of .327. So what does this mean? Eventually those balls in play will turn into hits, not outs, and Duke will struggle. Duke is still young enough to show improvement this year, so he's worth a speculative add. Just don’t expect him to be this year’s Cliff Lee.