Craig Kimbrel splashed onto the scene in 2011 and simply dominated. Granted he had some bad outings and battled inconsistency throughout the season that led to 8 blown saves. Still, the raining rookie of the year notched a record 46 saves for the Braves, was an All-Star, and managed 127 strikeouts. His ERA was only 2.10 throughout all that and his WHIP was even more impressive at 1.04. Kimbrel is an outstanding closer with the potential to be a HOF closer. Last year I described him as a right-handed version of Billy Wagner and I will stick to that. Kimbrel has a lights out 97+ MPH fastball and a slider that buckles even the best hitters.

Wagner is backed up by an average pitching staff, and improving offense. He also has a secret weapon, Johnny Venters in the setup role. While I expect Kimbrel to regress some it’s not because I think he will be terrible. His rookie campaign was just that good.

The Closer Report 2012 Projections: 43 Sv – 5 Wins – 2.45 ERA – 1.11 WHIP – 114 Ks

2012 Fantasy Draft Analysis:

Kimbrel is without a doubt a 4th or 5th round draft pick in 2012. Now, I have stated that I wouldn’t take a closer before the 6th round because of the value later in the draft, but if you want a filthy closer that will setup your bullpen for the entire season, go with Kimbrel. He’s young, healthy, and should only improve mentally as a closer in 2012.

Heath Bell has been one of the more dominating closers over the past three years. He has a combined 132 saves and a career ERA 3.06, but in the past three years his ERA never went over 2.71. Bell is a fastball/curveball closer who relies strikeouts to get his saves. He constantly will challenge hitters because of the safety net he had at PETCO Park. PETCO is infamously known as a pitcher’s park, so Bell had relative comfort in throwing strikes and still getting long outs. Now he ventures to the new ballpark in Miami, but his luck won’t change. the dimensions of the new Marlins ballpark are even more pitcher friendly in certain areas.

Bell is not only one of the elite closers of 2012, he is also closing for a team poised for a deep playoff run. At 34, Bell is no spring chicken and is at the tail end of his prime. Still, he has a track record of health and is a closer that can throw 80+ innings when asked.

The Marlins have a powerful offense, solid starting pitching, and a growing fan base. Bell will produce heavily for fantasy owners.

The Closer Report 2012 Projections: 45 Sv – 4 Wins – 2.56 ERA – 1.17 WHIP – 55 Ks

2012 Fantasy Draft Analysis:

Bell should be the first closer picked. You know what you will get with him. I suspect he will go as early as the fourth round, but because of the team change, so managers might avoid him altogether and let someone else take on his new team risk. That would be a mistake. Personally, I wouldn’t take a closer till the 6th round at best, so avoid Bell any earlier than that.

Salvador Pérez – C- Royals
At just 22 years of age Perez is a gamble to be your starting catcher, but a cheap gamble that could pay nice dividends. His late season call-up resulted in a .331 batting average and three home runs with 145 at bats.

Salvador Pérez was signed in Valencia,Venezuela in 2007 at the age of 16. He quickly built a reputation as a defensive stalwart after signing in 2006 as a 16-year-old from Venezuela.

In 2011, Perez batted .333 with 10 RBIs in 12 games at Omaha following his promotion from Class AA Northwest Arkansas. He batted .283 for the Naturals with nine homers and 43 RBIs in 79 games.

The future is bright for Salvador Pérez, the only question is how bright and how much in the future. Either way he is worth a late pick in the 2012 fantasy baseball draft.

Mike Moustakas – 3B – Royals
The big-time prospect did little in 2011 to make believers out of him in the fantasy world, but their is hope for 23-year-old Moustakas. He still has the ability to be the .300, 30 home run hitter every fantasy owner wants at third base, but he did struggle in his rookie debut to show he had that ability, and many owners will stray away from him in the 2012 draft.

The second-overall-pick in the 2007 draft batted .290 in AAA Omaha between 2010 and 2011 and hit 25 home runs with his 547 at bats in that time. He got the call midway in the 2011 season and was handed the starting job at third base for the Royals. He did very little to excite fantasy owners batting just .263 with a mere five home runs with 338 at bats.

So where is the hope? Well, it was his rookie season, so patients is needed here. Furthermore, Moustakas played his best ball at the end of the season in September when he batted .358 with four home runs. This was the Moustakas we had all been waiting for.

With a young improving Royal offense (Eric Hosmer, Alex Gordon, Billy Butler and Salvador Pérez) Moustakas could be in for his much awaited breakout season. While .300 and 30 home runs are a bit lofty aspirations, around .290 and 20 home runs should be attainable.

Alejandro De Aza – OF – White Sox
Already a bit of a breakout in 2011, Alejandro De Aza has the ability and talent to continue his breakout into the 2012. season.  After his second half call-up, Aza batted .329 with four home runs, three triples, eleven doubles and 12 stolen bases with just 152 at bats.

Aza batted .322 in AAA Charlotte with nine home runs, five triples, 29 doubles and 22 stolen bases with 385 at bats before his call-up. In 2010, Aza batted .302 with five home runs and 16 stolen bases with 318 at bats (He was 9 for 30 in a brief call-up with the White Sox that year).

The statistics say it all about Alejandro De Aza: Consistent. His numbers in 2011 with the White Sox are not a fluke and there is no reason to believe that he will not continue it into the 2012 season. A 2012 season as a full-time starter should bring a .300 average, over 10 home runs, 10 triples around 40 stolen bases.

Welcome to Cinncinati Reds Ryan Madson. After off and on again saves for the past two years he gets a sweet one year deal to showcase his talents for permanent closer job. Ryan Madson is the most anticipated new closer in 2012. Not only does Madson join a save-friendly Reds team, but he is motivated to succeed for a new long-term deal.

Madson closed out 2011 with 32 saves, 62 Ks, and bottom feeder ERA of 2.34. He did that all in only 60 innings. Madson is a converted started with 96 MPH fastball and a slew of breaking balls to fool batters. A great closer needs only one great pitch to get three outs, but a great closer can also be the guy who has another pitch to go to when the first one doesn’t work. Madson throws 4 , sometimes five different pitches to get National League hitters out with. He has the fastball, cut fastball, change-up, a curveball, and he’s even thrown a slider back in his starting days. Having the change-up and cut fastball to throw at overly aggressive ninth inning hitters is a godsend for Ryan Madson. He has some average to below average line-ups to face in the National League Central.

Madson will give it his everything. He is playing for a 4-5 year deal and a permanent closer with another suitor or maybe stay with the Reds. Expect a full and heathy year for 31-year-old closer. As for the Reds, they traded for setup man and future closer Sean Marshall. If the Reds have a lead into the 8th, consider it over.
The Closer Report 2012 Projections: 41 Sv – 2 Wins – 2.42 ERA – 1.08 WHIP – 77 Ks 41-2-2.42-1.08-77

2012 Fantasy Draft Analysis:

While many fantasy managers will have a heads up on Madson’s value, many would. His current ADP sits at 141 and he was taken as late as 189. While I expect my projections to be accurate, they are leaning conservative. Madson could be better and that excites me. I would love to take a top-notch closer and then follow it up with Madson in the 12, 13, or 14th round. He will perform the 2012 season at a round 8 level at the very least. Draft him between the 8th and 12th rounds. He will be a 1st tier closer.

The National League has the charismatic Brian Wilson. The American League has Brandon League. A fired up, hard throwing tattooed closer for the Seattle Mariners. League enters his second full season as the Mariners closer and showed us last year that he can handle the job.

League ended last season with 37 saves on a team with only 67 wins. He also finished with an ERA below 3.00 and a WHIP below 1.10. However, that is not what got my attention on Brandon League. His stellar slider is both is rise and fall. He has one of the most electric sliders in baseball, but it can hurt him more than help him. What also impressed me about League was his ability to bounce back from disaster.

Last season, League had a stretch of games where he blew three consecutive saves and over four straight games gave up 10 runs. It looked as though he was done, but he wasn’t. He went on to save 28/30 games and confirmed his status as a closer.

Brandon League comes at hitters with three great pitches. Like all closers, he throws his 97-98 MPH fastball early and often. What compliments that fastball and keeps the hitters honest is a great split finger fastball and his slider. The only way that League runs into problems is when he can’t throw his slider for a strike and hitters walk. Least year he reduced his BB/9 to a career low of 1.47.

If League was on a better team, he’d be a rare candidate for 50+ saves. I expect a big season from League with a team that is on the rise in the Seattle Mariners.

The Closer Report 2012 Projections: 43 Sv – 4 Wins – 2.42 ERA – 1.11 WHIP – 62 Ks

2012 Fantasy Draft Analysis:

League is an intriguing draft pick. He pitches for a team that at this point are unpredictable in how they will play. So there is a risk in drafting Brandon League. However, if you get him in the right round, he will be a great pick for your fantasy team. Right now, his ADP is around 183 and he’s gone as low as 240. Getting League after round 12, is a tremendous value pick and well worth the risk. If he stays healthy and consistent, League could have a career year and surpass even my expectations.

If you have been a reader of mine over the past couple of years, then you know how much I like Jason Motte. I expected him to have this job in 2010, but LaRussa felt we should all wait another year. Last September Motte took over as the closer for the Cardinals and never looked back. He saved eight games in nine opportunities and then continued his streak into the playoffs, saving five of the Cardinals nine playoff wins.

Not only has Motte been tested as a closer, but he has shown that no situation is too hot. He was a closer in waiting for two years and is more than ready for the job full-time. While Motte will deal with bouts of inconsistency upsetting his fantasy owners, they will be pleased with his final season numbers come October. I am projecting Motte as a 40+ save closer and here is why. First off, he pitches for a great team that will be in almost every game come the ninth inning. While the Cardinals have lost bats, they still have great pitching and youth and will contend.

Motte commands his 97 MPH fastball that seems even faster to hitters after 3 hours of baseball. He balances that fastball with a much improved cutter and on occasion will show his curveball to mess with hitters. His out pitch is no doubt the cutter and a closer with a good cutter can be devastating (Look up Mariano Rivera).

The Closer Report 2012 Projections: 41 Sv – 3 Wins – 1.88 ERA – 0.92 WHIP – 71 Ks

2012 Fantasy Draft Analysis:

Motte is a risk, let’s make that clear. He is starting his first full season as the closer and has a history on inconsistency. However, Motte matured a great deal in 2011 and showed us that he can handle the job. I expect him to meet ou projections and have a healthy outstanding season. Motte’s current ADP has him around 186. That is a great risk free spot to grab, but do not hesitate to grab him as early as you can. Other managers will snipe Motte from you if you wait too long.

Huston Street has a new scene and it’s lovely San Diego. The veteran closer moves from the cold and home run filled Coors Field to the comfortable stretches of Petco Park, where hitters go to die and pitchers love to thrive. This is a huge flip for Street. Not only will he find huge success in San Diego, but balls that would float out of Coors field will be tracked down in the deep bales of PETCO Park.

Huston Street is not the favorite of most fantasy owners. He is often injured and has some consistency issues later in the season. With that said, he is one of the more stable tier 2 closers and by going to the Padres I expect similar results that Heath Bell found in San Diego.

Street has a history of injury, particularly with his elbow. Last season, Street was on the DL only once from August 9-26. It isn’t uncommon to see pitchers hit the DL later in the season from overuse. At 29 years old, Street’s age is not a factor. What is a concern is limiting his appearances to keep him healthy the entire season similar to the way the Red Sox handled Jonathan Papelbon. We will see how San Diego uses Street and hopefully avoids a trip to the DL.

As a fantasy closer, Street is capable of putting up good strikeout numbers and plenty of saves. He’s to the best closer for ERA and WHIP, but that could change with being in San Diego. Right now, I’m not projecting a drop in ERA, but it is possible.

Street uses a Fastball, Slider, Change-up mix and that is devastating to hitters. His fastball is his most effective pitch because his change-up keeps hitters honest.

The Closer Report 2012 Projections: 42 Sv – 5 Wins – 3.42 ERA – 1.17 WHIP – 60 Ks

2012 Fantasy Draft Analysis:

Street is always undervalued in fantasy drafts, but it’s actually a smart move based on his injury past. His current ADP has him at 189, but he can go much later. I place Street at a round 13 to 14 value. If you get him there, good move. If you get him later than that, it’s a steal. He will likely produce like a 9-10 round pick, so definitely get this guy if the price is right.