Jeff Niemann is Down

Jeff Niemann has a broken bone in his leg (fibula) and is out for at least a month and probably more. Who will step up?

Tampa Bay has 3 choices, Wade Davis, Chris Archer, and Alex Cobb.  Let’s take a look at these options.

Wade Davis probably is the first choice as he has experience as a starter in the bigs.  Currently he is being used as a reliever and that may hurt his chance to become a starter again as he is doing very good.  This year, he has a 2.04 ERA with 16 Ks in 17 innings.  However, last year Davis started 29 games and had a 4.45 ERA (1.38 WHIP) with 105 Ks in 184 innings – not that good.  Although Davis has the experience, he certainly seems to be better in the pen.

Chris Archer is yet another good pitching prospect for the Rays.  But, he is probably a few months, if not a season, away from being ready.  In 2011, he started 27 games in the minors and had a 4.09 ERA, 130 Ks in 147 innings.  This year, in 8 starts, he has a 4.71 ERA with 40 ks in 42 innings.  He has great potential, but a 4+ ERA in the minors is not what you want to see coming to the majors.

Alex Cobb is the most intriguing option for the Rays.  Not only has he shown good stuff in the minors, he actually started 9 games at the MLB level last year.  In 12 starts in the minors last year, he had a 1.87 ERA with 70 Ks in 67 innings – great!  In his 9 starts in the majors last year, he had a 3.42 ERA and 37 Ks in 52 innings – solid.  In 8 starts this year in the minors, he has a 4.14 ERA and 44 Ks in 41 innings.  Basically, Cobb pitched very good last year in the minors and the bigs, and is off to a slow start so far this year (although the Ks are very nice).

Nothing has been decided, but my opinion is to keep Davis in the pen, and give Cobb the job (that sounds bad).  Regardless of who gets the 5th spot, they are probably limited to deeper fantasy leagues, maybe medium leagues.  Even though the Rays are a good team, it’s such a tough division it’s hard to recommend any 5 in that division for shallow leagues.

Surprise! A.J. Ellis

With the awful injury to Wilson Ramos of the Nationals, it got me thinking about possible replacements for him. I was surprised and shocked by two of the 3 below recommendations.

From least surprising to most surprising:

Carlos Ruiz, Phillies:  Ruiz is having arguably the best season of any catcher in baseball.  Over the last month, he’s hitting .341 with 5 HRs and 21 RBIs.  He is not available in too many leagues by now, but he could be in yours.

Ryan Doumit, Twins:  When talking about the Twin’s catcher, usually we are talking about Mauer, however, the Twins picked up Ryan Doumit and he is producing.  He is batting .263 with 5 HRs and 23 RBIs.  Owned in only around 10% of leagues, he is performing like someone who could be owned in nearly all formats.

A.J. Ellis, Dodgers:  Who?  Exactly.  Ellis is basically a 31 year old  journeyman type player who is having a career year.  He is batting .338 wtih 2 HRs and 12 RBIs.  Nothing wrong with those numbers – especially that average!

Outside of a few staples, a good catcher is hard to find.  One of the above three may just give your fantasy team a nice little boost.

This has been without a doubt the worse year on record for major league closers. The amount of closers lost to injury times the number of closer with terrible starts, divided by the number of closers who have just lost the job is a formula even a Sabermetrics wannabee with a degree from MIT couldn’t compute.  Since spring training has wrapped up, at least 17 closer jobs have changed hands due to any of a number of reasons, even vertigo.

Besides the fact that closers tend not to get much time to throw in spring training, I think another reason for the terrible start is a different approach by hitters in the ninth inning.  I’ve noticed many hitters being far more patient with pitches they see i the ninth, rather than looking to tee-off for a game tying home run.  In fact, there has been 56 blown saves by pitchers with two or more saves.  56 and it’s only May!  Four of those are proudly owned by Heath Bell, considered one of the best in the game.   Now, this trend will change.  Closers will change their approach to the ninth inning and adjust accordingly to what the hitters are doing, and that will create a decline in blown saves and some stability in the ninth inning. The only problem is, who will be standing to pitch in the ninth inning when that time comes?

Lets check out the latest report on the Carousel grapevine.

Oakland Athletics

The A’s are at it again. Grant Balfour has finally been disposed as the closer for the A’s and has been replaced by stand-in faux closer Brain Fuentes.  If anyone knows Fuentes’ history, then they must know it won’t last long.  Grab Ryan Cook and get ready for a carousel trip Billy Beane style.

Los Angeles Dodgers

Last Monday, Manager Don Mattingly finally listened to The True Guru and in fact most of the nation when he cut loose Javy Guerra from the closer role and placed Kenley Jansen in the role he was built for. Don’t go cutting Guerra too fast.  Jansen has health issues and bouts of inconsistency, so before I anoint him closer, I’d like to see him save 10 games.

Miami Marlins

Heath Bell isn’t closing for the Marlins, right now.  He will probably get the job back in a week or less.  In the mean time, Ozzie Guillen has considered Steve Cishek and has used Edward Mujica in the role while Bell finds his groove.

San Diego Padres

Huston Street has made his annual trip to the disabled list.  With that brings the opportunity to one of the young guns in the Padres bullpen to step in while he heals.  I figured that would be Andrew Cashner, who is clearly a closer of the future.  Instead, Bochy has gone with 200 career save man Dale Thayer.  200 saves in the minors that is.  While he has the experience and good stuff, Cashner is the better pitcher.

New York Yankees

Mariano Rivera is out for the year with a torn ligament in his knee. Just in case you haven’t heard.  David Robertson has taken over the role and rightly so. Robertson has closer stuff and will likely be Rivera’s replacement once he retires.  Robertson can light up the speed guns and has a great out pitch with his slider.  If he messes up at all, Giradi can go to Rafael Soriano to finish off the ninth inning. Soriano closed for the Rays and Braves, but hasn’t pitched well since being with the Yankees.

Washington Nationals

Since stepping into the closer role for the Nats, Henry Rodriguez has been pretty good.  8/10 in saves and a 2.45 ERA.  He is keeping the seat warm for Drew Storen and Brad Lidge. Once one of those guys return, who knows if Rodriguez will keep the job.

San Francisco Giants

The Giants lost Brain Wilson to Tommy John surgery and replaced him Santiago Casilla.  Casilla has been a weak replacement for the bearded one.  He is 8/1 in saves with a 5.14 ERA.  The Giants don’t have many options after Casilla, but keep an eye on Sergio Romo and Jeremy Affeldt.

Chicago White Sox

Hector Santiago was manager Robin Ventura’s closer to open the season.  That fell apart quite quickly, and now Addison Reed has taken the helm for the White Sox.  Of course that was after Matt Thornton and Chris Sale saw action in the role.  Reed is the best choice and will likely remain the closer for the White Sox until further notice.

Chicago Cubs

Carlos Marmol has had a dreadful start to the season.  He opened the season 2/4 in saves with a 6.35 ERA and 16 walks in 11.2 innings.  Rafael Dolis has taken over for him and isn’t fairing much better.  He is 3/5 in save chances with a 3.38 ERA.  However, Dolis isn’t walking many batters.  James Russell could sneak in some saves and/or take over if Dolis continues to stumble in the ninth inning.

Cincinnati Reds

After Ryan Madson was lost for the season, Sean Marshall took over as the closer for the Reds.  While Marshall has been decent, 5/6 4.91 ERA, Arnoldis Chapman is threatening his job as the closer.  Chapman has struck out about 45% of the batters he has retired and so far in 2012, no one can hit him.

Milwaukee Brewers

John Axford has only blown one save this season,b ut it has been a brutal season regardless.  He only has six saves in seven chances and an ERA over 6.00.  Still, it’s his job to lose.  Granted his wife went into labor the night he blew his first save after 49 consecutive saves, he still didn’t pitch well.  Francisco Rodriguez would take over for Axford if he were to lose his job, but KROD isn’t pitching that much better.

Los Angeles Angels

Jordan Walden was quickly yanked from the closer role when he just didn’t seem as though he had the control for the job.  He was 1/2 in save chances and has since been replaced by Scott Downs.  While Scott Downs has pitched well, he is not a closer.  He can better serve the Angels in the setup role or as a left-handed specialist, and not the closer.  Walden has looked much better lately and will likely get the closer job back by June.

Toronto Blue Jays

After trading for Sergio Santos, the Blue Jays thought they had their closer.  Then he blew three saves and hit the DL.  They then tried aged-veteran Francisco Cordero.  He promptly went 2/4 in save chances and was removed.  The next on the carousel is Casey Janssen, who so far is 1/1 in saves, but hasn’t had the best season either.  Santos should return in three weeks, ending this mess.

Boston Red Sox

Alfredo Aceves is the Red Sox closer since Andrew Bailey tore a ligament in his thumb before the season started.   He’s been serviceable, going 7/9 in save chances, but has an ERA of 6.14 and a WHIP of 1.57.  He always has runners on and rarely has a smooth inning.  While there has been rumblings about Daniel Bard getting moved back to the bullpen, it hasn’t happened yet. Also, Mark Melancon is still serving time in Pawtucket for a terrible start.

Andy Pettitte will be starting for the Yankees on Sunday vs. the Seattle Mariners.  His last year in the majors, 2010, was a good year for Pettitte, he accumulated an ERA of 3.28, 101 Ks in 129 innings, and was an 11 and 3.  He’s 39 now and is giving it one more shot.  He has pitched 17 minor league innings this year and has an ERA of 3.71 with 13 Ks and only 3 BB.  Ok numbers, but some of the outings were rough – 5 runs in 5 innings was his last one.  Maybe he was just ‘working on stuff’ and not worrying about the score.  Pettitte is worth a flyer in deep leagues and could factor in all formats before the season is out.

Vladimir Guerrero has signed a minor league deal with the Blue Jays.  Now make no mistake, this is a low risk high reward kinda deal with no guarantees.  The Blue Jays are approaching this deal correctly, basically saying that Vlad may not make it out of the minors, but hopefully they will catch lightning in a bottle with him.  Last year Vlad batted .290 with 13 HRs and 63 RBIs – not bad.  You expect more HRs from Vlad, but all in all, good.

Vlad may not be the super-star hitter he once was, but he may prove that he is still a very productive player.  In fantasy, it’s too early to grab Vlad, but he is worth keeping an eye on.  If he makes the majors and can keep his average up, he has a place in medium to deep leagues.  If the Blue Jays do catch lightning in a bottle, then Vlad can be owned in all formats.

In a season chock full of the unexpected for closers, this is icing on the cake. Heath Bell has been one of the most reliable and consistent closers over the past three seasons in MLB baseball. After changing teams and venues, it has been a totally different set of results for the ace closer. In 2012 Heath Bell is 3/7 in save opportunities and in 11 appearances has an ERA over 11.00. He has been anything but effective and has now been temporarily removed from the closer role by manager Ozzie Guillen. That took a lot from Guillen being he is so committed to Bell, but if you know Guillen, you will know he has only so much patient with closers.

So what is wrong with Heath Bell? Could it be the change of venue? Not likely. Not only is the weather just about the same in sunny Florida as it is in SoCal (San Diego) that shouldn’t change much either. THen I thought about the ballpark he is pitching in. I have the dimensions of ech park below.

The dimensions of both PETCO (at TOP) and Marlins Park (at Bottom) are nearly the same. Both are considered pitchers parks and Bell should be comfortable in both. He has only given up one home run this year and that was in Cincinnati. Of course moving to the Marlins kept him in the same league, so not much difference in the batters he is facing as well. So the change of scenery shouldn’t have been the reason for his terrible start.

Then I checked out his pitches and mechanics. While his mechanics seem fine, his control hasn’t. His BB/9 has skyrocketed to 10.38, while is K/9 has sunk to 6.23. His career BB/9 even with 2012 added in is only 3.14 and his K/9 is 9.17. With control problems comes different pitch selection. The problem has been primarily with his fastball. He has been forced to throw less fastballs and therefore depend on his curveball and change-up even more. In fact, on an average night, he has ben throwing a lot more secondary pitches than before. His control issues cause his more problems as well like HIGH PITCH COUNTS. We all know that once a closer has hit 20 pitches and certainly 25 pitches, fatigue can set it. Heath Bell has thrown more than 20 pitches five of eleven appearances and in all of those appearances he blew a save or was hammered. In his three saves, where he appeared to have good control, he needed a total of 35 pitches. That is less than the 46 pitches he needed when he blew his third save of the season.

Ozzie Guillen was correct to remove Bell from the closer role and give him time to work on his control issues earlier in the game. This is a completely fixable issue and Bell should be back in the closer role within a week to ten days.

If you are looking to acquire Heath Bell, now is the time. His value is at a all-time low. Managers will likely give him up for very little. Edward Mujica is not the answer at closer for the Marlin. Guillen knows that as well as Mujica and Bell.

If you own Heath Bell, remain patient. You will get your stud closer back.

Manager Dale Sveum told Carlos Marmol that he will no longer be closing for the Cubs for the time being. How long this will last no one knows, but what is known, Marmol’s future as a closer is in jeopardy. Sveum told reporters that he will be using a closer-by-committee approach and will use right-hander Rafael Dolis and left-hander James Russell to close out games.

Rafael Dolisis a 24-year old rookie with decent stuff. In 2012, Dolisis has 15.1 innings in the books with a 3.52 ERA and 4 Ks. In my opinion he is not closer material, but obviously will be used to face right-handed lineups as long as he is successful.

Lefty James Russell is the stronger candidate in my eyes. So far this season, Russell hasn’t given up a run in 7.2 innings of work and has struck out eight. He is 1-0 with one hold. Russell doesn’t have the great stuff for a closer. He has a 89-90 M.P.H. fastball, but compliments it well with a sneaky slider, and a change-up. When necessary he throws a curveball as well. From a fantasy standpoint, I like Russell because in many leagues he qualifies at SP and RP. That is great for Yahoo! leagues where a manager can place a closer in a SP slot.

Right now, I’d pick up James Russell. There are rumors that Kerry Wood, who just came back from the DL could take it or John Maine in Triple-A could get called up. Maine has been closing in Triple-A Iowa, but hasn’t been called back up, so no movement there. The Cubs will be an interesting watch this year and if management has lost faith in Marmol, expect GM Theo Epstein to get on the horn with teams like the Red Sox and trade him.

David Roberson

Say what you will about the Yankees, love them or hate them, you MUST respect the career of Mariano Rivera, Mo. THE closer in baseball for years and years. Well, that reign is over – for at least this year and maybe forever. Mo tore his ACL and will be out for the rest of the year.

Fantasy wise, this means that the NY Yankees need a new closer and that this closer is possibly available on your waiver wire.  The Yanks have two choices, David Robertson and Rafael Soriano.

When the Yanks signed Soriano, the speculation was that they were signing their closer of the future for when Mo retired.  However, Soriano hasn’t been as dominant as expected.  Last year, shortened by injuries to 39 innings, he had a 4.12 ERA and 1.30 WHIP – just not good, especially for a late inning guy.  He has pitched 8 innings this year and has a 2.25 ERA but a 2.00 WHIP.  He is giving up a lot of hits and walking too many.  It is unlikely that he will be the Yankees first choice to close.

The likely first choice is David Robertson.  Last year, Robertson had a 1.08 ERA with a 1.13 WHIP as well as 100 Ks in 66 innings.  These are the type of numbers you want to see for your closer.  This year, in 11 innings, he has a 0.00 ERA and 18 Ks – can’t really ask for better.

The numbers are clear, Robertson is the better pitcher and should be the closer for the NY Yankees.  Grab him now!

Patrick Corbin

With Arizona sending Collmenter to the bullpen, they had need for another starter – enter Patrick Corbin.

Patrick Corbin is not the top pitching prospect for Arizona, that would be Bauer with Skaggs being right there, but he is the older of the three.  He may be overshadowed by his fellow minor leaguers but Corbin is a good pitcher.  Now, he is a good pitcher on a very good team.

In the 4 starts he had in the minors this year, Corbin had a 1.67 ERA, 25 Ks, and 8 BB in 27 innings.  Those are very strong numbers – not too many walks, nearly a K an inning, and an ERA that would please anyone.  In addition, Corbin has made one start at the MLB level and did well.  Against the Marlins this year, Corbin went 5.2 innings, 3 runs, 6 Ks, and 3 BB – good enough to get the win.  Clearly he was not overmatched, and he gets a little extra consideration as this was his first start in the bigs ever, so you have to imagine that his nerves affected him.

Arizona is the favorite to win the west (although the Dodgers are not going to make it a cake walk), so any of their pitchers are worth looking at.  The NL west is not the best hitting division (some would argue that it is the worst), so any pitcher in the NL West gets a little more of an edge (except facing Mr. Kemp).  If Corbin continues his solid, if not very good pace, he will be a valuable addition in fantasy.

For now, deeper leagues should own him, medium leagues should consider him, and shallow leagues should watch.  If Corbin can keep his ERA down and still K around 1 per inning, then he could be owned in all formats.

Rafael Dolis picked up his third hold of the season after striking out the only batter he faced in the Cubs 3-1 win over the Reds.

Current closer Carlos Marmol picked up the save, but he has struggled thus far in 2012 (2 saves, 5.19 ERA).

If you own Carlos Marmol or have an extra pitching slot, you may want to take a shot at Dolis who has experience closing in the minors.

Texas Rangers outfielder Brian Snyder smacked his first career home run in the Rangers 11-5 loss to the Toronto Blue Jays.

Snyder has battled injuries and position changes in his 7 years in the minor leagues after being drafted by the Baltimore Orioles in the 1st round (13th overall) of the 2005 MLB June Amateur Draft. In those seven minor league seasons Snyder batted .275 with 72 home runs with 2,856 at bats. Not exactly eye-popping stats, but he is still only 25 and he does have solid power stroke.

With Mitch Moreland still struggling at the plate, David Murphy is average and the rest of the Ranger outfield is injury-prone, so Snyder could get plenty of starts and even play his way into a full-time starter.

Snyder is a contact hitter with good power to all fields and he could hit 18-25 home runs in Texas if he gets starting time.

Mike Trout, stud prospect for the Angels, has arrived in the bigs.  The Angels have been struggling early (somehow) and brought up a guy who is tearing up the minors hoping for a spark.  The spark hasn’t happened yet.

Trout has played two games now and has gone 0/7 with 1 K and 1 BB.  Just not good.  However, it’s his first two games at the MLB level this year, so it’s way to early to read into it, especially considering his minor league numbers.

In the minors this year, Trout was hitting .467 with 1 HR, 13 RBIs, and 6 SBs.  Last year in the minors he hit .414 with 121 HRs, and 33 SBs.  That is a crazy good average at any level.

So what do we do with him and our fantasy team?  Trout had 123 MLB at bats last year and hit .281, with 0 HRs and 4 SB.  We should see a similar trend, good average, some power (10 – 15 HRs), and lots of speed (30+ steals).  Even with his ability to hit for high average, he doesn’t walk as much as he should and strikes out a little much – experience should help right those numbers.  He has great upside and could quickly be one of the best leadoff hitters in baseball.  But the learning curve will still cause some ups and downs.  He must be owned in deep leagues.  He should be owned in medium leagues.  Shallow leagues can definitely consider having him on their bench and potentially starting as his ceiling is so high.  However, there is a potential for a platoon in the OF with him, so  until we see him with regular playing time his value is lowered.