The Closer Report: April 20, 2010

SAVES:

Kevin Gregg (5) - Gregg mowed down the Royals on 13 pitches surrendering a hit and recording a strikeout.  Gregg has a firm hold on the job and Frasor is not a threat.  In fact, during spring training I reported that the Blue Jays are best served with Frasor as the setup man and Downs as the lefty specialist.  That is the way it is setup now.

Francisco Cordero (5) - Cordero continues his hot start, saving his fifth game in a row and did it with two strikeouts. I have to admit Cordero is unstoppable right now.

David Aardsma (6) - Looked very sharp against the Orioles.  The only smudge on the save was a bloop single by Matt Weiters.  14 pitches and a strikeout.

Matt Lindstrom (3) - Got his thrid save, but got roughed up in the process.  He gave up two hits and a wild pitch on way to his third save of the season.  Needed 24 pitches to close the game out, so expect Lyon to close out a possible save tomorrow.

Bobby Jenks (3) - Had a relatively good outing.  19 pitches, a hit, and a strikeout.

Chad Qualls (2) - Qualls came through with a great save tonight.  Gave up no hits, one ground ball and two strikeouts.  Its rare, but he does have some good outings.

Fernanado Rodney (5) - Rodney is insane right now.  Here are some numbers to digest.  He has five saves in the past seven days.  In those five innings pitched, no hits, one walk and four strikeouts. His ERA in that period, ZERO.  I don't think Fuentes is taking the job back anytime soon.

BLOWN SAVES

Ryan Madson (BS 1)- Get off the Madson Express.  He got hammered.  He gave up three runs on two home runs.  His season WHIP is now at 1.71 and his ERA is just lost at 7.71.  I'm beginning to think it's the curse of the Phillies closer.  In Madson's defense, it was his first blown save of the season.

APPEARANCES:

Jonathan Papelbon (2-0) - Got the win pitching the ninth inning of a 6-6 game.  He threw allot of pitches (20) and walked a batter in the effort.  He also recorded a strikeout.

Francisco Rodriguez - Still no saves, but got a wasted inning of work tonight.  He needed a whooping 26 pitches to end the game.  He walked two and struck out a pair as well.

Billy Wagner (1-0) - pitched a perfect 10th inning for his first win of the season.  He also added a strikeout.

Heath Bell (4) - After blowing a save yesterday, Bell came through with his fourth save of the season tonight.  He did make it intersting by giving up a hit and walk, but after 19 pitches the game was over.

Franklin Morales - Pitched with a 6-run lead and struck out two and walked one.

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2010 Closer Profile: David Aardsma, Mariners

By Todd Farino, www.thecloserreport.com

Team: Seattle Mariners

Projections: 44-4-2.67-1.27-77 (SV-WIN-ERA-WHIP-K)

Average Draft Position: 158th pick

Recommended Draft Round: 10

Team Saves Projection: 55

Injury Risk/Stability: 9/8

Top 50 Rank: #10

Check out the entire draft kit by clicking here

When David Aardsma entered the major league system, most scouts quickly figured him for a future closer or at least that he had the stuff for the job. After years of service and stints with the Giants, Cubs, White Sox, and Red Sox, Aardsma finally got the chance to close for the Seattle Mariners and he made the most of it. He had an absolutely brilliant season saving 38 games with an 2.52 ERA and 80 strikeouts.

Last season I saw the emergence of Aardsma through his developed pinpoint fastball and overbearing confidence that I hadn't seen in previous years.  Don't get me wrong, you would also see flashes of Aardsma losing that pinpoint control when he blew saves in grand style with three or more runs.  He gave up runs in just eight appearances, but seven of appearances resulted in two or three run being tacked onto his ERA. At 28 years old, Aardsma has completely matured as a pitcher and is not only in the prime of his career, but at it's peak in performance.

I don't see any difference for Aardsma in 2010 and the improvement will not result into regression like the naysayers want. He will be the closer in Seattle this season and with Brandon Morrow gone, it leaves only Mark Lowe with any experience in closing games.  Aardsma also has a better pitching staff to close for in 2010 and the improved Mariners offense should give him plenty of save chances. Expect the big blown saves we come to see from Aardsma, but in the end count on 44 saves for the Mariners closer.
The True Guru Strategy: Aardsma is one of the better values in the draft amongst closers. He one of the few projected 40+ going past the tenth round. I recommend drafting him in the tenth round.  Don't wait too long.  Most managers will come to see his value with the improving Mariners, his high K/9, and the 40+ save potential.

Temporary Saves

The Seattle Mariners have placed Brandon Morrow on the DL and will be there until May 9th. The guy who will step up, who you should pick up, is David Aardsma. He already has 3 saves on the year and has been extremely effective. He has pitched 9 innings and has 8 Ks, an ERA of 1.93, and a WHIP just over 1. It's doubtful that he will keep the closer role when Morrow is reactivated, but until then he should get you some saves for you and you never know. - Scout Monkey (scout_monkey@gmx.com)