The Closer Report: April 13, 2010 7 Saves

SAVES:
Mariano Rivera (3) - Came in for a short .2 inning save and nailed it over the Angels, striking out one.  Rivera is already in mid-season form and not showing his age at all.  For all of you that are expecting Rivera to falter and regress in 2010, it won't happen.  I feel he's due to regress a bit next year, but even that is a solid closer.

Jose Valverde (2) - Valverde mowed down the Royals 1-2-3 in 12 pitches and was fired up as usual completing the comeback for the Tigers.  So far so good for Valverde.

Rafael Soriano (2) - Got another ugly save.  Something hasn't been right with Soriano so far, but he did get the save and a strikeout.  His one blip was a solo home run to Ty Wiggington.

Kevin Gregg (3) - The Blue Jays won their 6th straight game and their bullpen has been taxes.  Everything out of Toronot is that Frasor is just getting rest after making five appearances already in this early season.  Gregg looked fantastic, facing the minimum number of batters and recording two strike outs.

David Aardsma (3) - Had some control issues tonight, but overwhelmed the A's onward to his third save of the season.  The two walks were a small blip on an otherwise nice night.

Francisco Cordero (4) - Second save in 2 days.  He made quick work of the Marlins, disposing of them on 11 pitches, striking out two.  Cordero has looked nothing less then superb to start the 2010 season.

Octavio Dotel (2) - Dotel got ripped for a 2-run home run from none other then Eugenio Velez, but luckily had a three run lead.  His season WHIP is still low at 1.00, but his ERA balloned to 4.50 in the short season.

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2010 Closer Profile: Rafael Soriano, Tampa Bay Rays

By Todd Farino, www.thecloserreport.com

Team: Tampa Bay Rays

Projections: 46-4-3.21-1.02-115 (SV-WIN-ERA-WHIP-K)

Average Draft Position: 155th pick 

Recommended Draft Round: 8

Team Saves Projection: 60

Injury Risk/Stability: 8/8

Top 50 Rank: #4

Check out the entire draft kit by clicking here

The Braves parted ways with Soriano in an off-season trade to the Rays and I think it was a huge mistake. For a few years now Soriano has been on the radar as a future stud closer and last year he took the next step towards that role. He recorded 27 saves and a 2.97 ERA, while striking out 102 in 75.2 innings.
Soriano has one of the best K/9 rates among closers and he has been added to a team that will see plenty of save opportunities and has a manager that won't be afraid to use him as often as needed. For owners, Soriano's only question mark is his consistency. He is still developing and his consistency should thrive and develop in 2010.

As far as his new team goes, the Rays will be in allot of tight games and have a knack for comebacks. That will bode well for their new closer, who should see plenty of action and over power aggressive American League hitters. There are only a handful of closer who will get more than 100 strikeouts in a season or get 40+ saves. Mark down Soriano for both of them.

The True Guru Draft Strategy: Right now Soriano is being drafted in the late 13th round. That should change as we get near the end of spring training. He's obviously a steal at that point, but drafting him as early as the eighth round is a smart and effective move. Let the draft dictate where you take Soriano.

Save Strategy and Soriano

If your leagues are anything like mine, saves are hard to come by. Sure, new closers come into the picture from time to time - your Dave Aardsma's and Fernando Rodney's of the world. But inevitably in my leagues some jerk ends up snagging them up, literally within seconds of the news breaking. It's like a horse race to grab any closer that comes to light, no matter how temporary. Last season, I was watching the Rays game when Troy Percival hurt his leg (or whatever it was the elderly bum hurt). I saw Dan Wheeler walking onto the field and had logged into my league, literally before he even made it to the mound. Guess what. He was already taken!!! Another owner had also been watching the game, logged in, and grabbed Wheeler before I could. We're talking a 20-30 second window. That's how quickly a new closer can get snatched up in some leagues. There are a number of solutions to this problem. One of them is handcuffing your closers, but that's not always feasible. For one thing, you may have 3 or 4 closers and now you're wasting that many more roster spots on handcuffs. The other problem is that it can be hard in some cases to determine who would be next in line. Another option is trying to anticipate what closer might be either in the hot seat or injury prone, and simply grab their backup. For instance, a ton of people owned Carlos Marmol last year because, let's face it, Kerry Wood has never been the face of durability. This year, owners who anticipated the Brandon Lyon debacle and grabbed Fernando Rodney early on have been rewarded to the tune of 11 saves thus far, and did so without having to win that proverbial horse race. The final solution is to simply grab up a reliever who has been lights-out, reap the benefits of his pitching prowess, and hope he gets the chance to save some games. One guy who can help you do that right now is Rafael Soriano of the Braves. If you're not familiar with Soriano, let me fill you in. He was traded from Seattle to Atlanta prior to the 07 season for Horacio Ramirez, who is currently stinking up a Royals uniform. He was slated to be the Braves closer last year but multiple DL trips cost him much of the season. This year, Soriano is the Braves’ setup man, and must have neglected to pay his electric bill because he's been lights-out. Ok, that was pretty lame. Nevertheless, he has been stellar and has even had the chance to rack up saves in certain situations. In his first two months, Soriano is carrying a .98 ERA and .87 WHIP - both outstanding numbers. He has also struck out 37 batters in just over 27 innings, putting his K/9 rate at a staggering 12.04. The guy hasn't given up an earned run in almost a month and oh, by the way, picked up his 5th save of the season last night. Bobby Cox seems to be happy with Gonzalez in the closer role, but scenarios such as last night’s have given Soriano a chance to get the saves. Last night, Gonzalez came in in the 8th to face a pair of lefties, which opened the 9th up for Rafael. Soriano is only owned in 28% of ESPN and 49% of Yahoo leagues. While Soriano can't be relied on to rack up a ton of Saves from here on out unless Gonzalez gets hurt, he can be expected to produce a handful more Saves and deliver some more fantasy goodness along the way.

PCB Scout Questions? Comments? Random nonsense? Email me: pcbscout(at)gmail.com

Time share closers

There are some closers out there that currently are not pitching on consecutive days. If you own any of these grab there setup men and start them you should get a few save chances a week out of them. Matt Lindstrom--Blew his second save opportunity and the Marlins have been adamant that he is not fully there yet and will split time with Leo Nunez. The Marlins are rolling right now so make sure you grab Nunez. Mike Gonzalez--He is a walking arm problem and he has blown a save already. Rafael Soriano locked down the save today which would have been a back to back save for Gonzo looks like they might split time here as well. Grab Soriano if you are chasing saves. The Bay State Scout